October 26, 2025
Josh Berry remains hard to predict because he remains one of the most inconsistent and mistake-prone drivers on the circuit, particularly among drivers who occasionally have winning speed. Berry starts 27th at Martinsville today, and while he finished second at the geometrically similar but much larger Loudon earlier this season and has typically been fast on short tracks in general, he's finished worse than he started in all three of his previous Martinsville starts. However, he did lead an entire stint of 40 laps in this year's spring race from caution to caution when he stayed out of the pits before Bubba Wallace accidentally made contact with him in the pits, which resulted in Berry's car stopping and him finishing several laps down. It's hard to predict him and any Berry predictions can easily backfire, but the fact that he's starting 27th makes him a great possibility for Place Differential points.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
October 26, 2025
Brad Keselowski isn't as much of a factor on most tracks as he used to be, but short tracks seem to be one of the main exceptions. In his last three short track starts at Iowa, Richmond, and Bristol, he has finished in the top ten all three times with a third at Iowa, a second at Bristol, and a combined 103 laps led between the tracks. Keselowski used to be a master at Martinsville as well in the Gen 6 era, but not so much with the Next Gen chassis. However, last year he led 170 laps in the race after qualifying 18th, one position better than he qualified yesterday. All signs point to him being a better DFS contender than he looks. Since he only costs $7,600 after months of underachieving expectations, you should strongly consider starting him today now that he's had a bit of an uptick in his recent short track performance.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
October 26, 2025
Perhaps it shouldn't come as much of a surprise that Shane van Gisbergen no longer looks like a fish out of water like he did earlier in the season. He remains after all one of the world's greatest racing drivers and his car control, strategy, and racecraft can still often carry him even on unfamiliar tracks. It's now no longer surprising when he has top twenty runs on ovals as it seems more likely than not lately. However, it also seems like his qualifying results have often been improving faster than his race finishes. Even if SVG finishes better than his starting position of 22nd today, it's hard to see him finishing much better and he could still easily finish worse since he was 34th six laps down in the spring. If you're even thinking about starting him, start Zane Smith instead because he costs less money in DFS, is starting worse, and is a better oval driver.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
October 26, 2025
After months of basically looking washed up, Kyle Busch pulled out a relative surprise by qualifying seventh at Martinsville on Saturday, his first top-10 qualifying run on an unrestricted oval since Michigan 20 races ago. That's actually his best starting position since his pole seven years ago in 2018 as well. However, in the 13 races since, he has led a grand total of five laps. About all anyone remembers in all that time is Kevin Harvick attempting to wreck him to advance in the 2020 playoffs and failing. Particularly for Richard Childress Racing, he just hasn't had any speed, as he finished worse than he started in five of six races, never finished better than 16th, or even had an average running position better than 16th. He isn't back. Do not pass go. Do not collect $200. Do not start Kyle Busch for DFS play.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
October 26, 2025
It's hard to know what to make of Carson Hocevar's chances at Martinsville on Sunday. He has finished better than he started in all four of his previous Cup Series races, but he has never finished better than 17th. However, on Sunday, he will be starting 15th. Obviously, it's a lot harder to gain positions from that spot, so one could easily see him being unable to replicate that feat. He's been consistently very fast at Bristol, but that is a track that rewards guts and bravado, which he has, unlike Martinsville, which rewards finesse, where he might be lacking. His car control can be so strong that he gets away with things that many of his peers do not, but it seems he has gotten away with less this year than last. It's pretty much a coin flip whether he's worth starting or not, but it would probably be better to pick a similarly-priced driver who is starting worse.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
October 26, 2025
Short tracks are definitely Michael McDowell's worst track type, and Martinsville is certainly no exception, as McDowell has never finished better than 12th here, although it is noteworthy that he did so in this year's spring race, his debut for Spire Motorsports. The fact that he now drives for a Hendrick Motorsports satellite probably somewhat helps, considering how much Hendrick has dominated here over the years, but he's still never posted a top-10 finish or even led a lap in 29 previous starts, and it's hard to imagine either of those changing, even though his 11th-place qualifying run is his best in six years. His past record suggests he will almost certainly finish worse than he starts, and therefore, it is not a good idea to start him.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
October 19, 2025
Chase Elliott became a long shot to advance to the Championship 4 after a disappointing day at Las Vegas, where he suffered a penalty for a runaway tire, then was minorly involved in the late race 11-car pileup, which resulted in an 18th-place finish. Since he's now 23 points behind his fellow Chase (Briscoe) for the final playoff transfer spot, Elliott might need to win, and he only starts 25th. But Elliott has already won at Talladega twice, and he might be the best driver here. At a track where raw speed doesn't matter as much as passing, Elliott's top-notch passing ability makes him a contender nearly every time out here. He seemed more dominant with the Gen 6 car than the Next Gen, but he has actually not crashed out in a Next Gen race yet, making him one of the few. There are no sure things at Talladega, but Elliott is certainly the best DFS option probabilistically.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
October 19, 2025
After months of complacency, William Byron now may be approaching a must-win scenario as his crash at Las Vegas coupled with Denny Hamlin's win will make it a lot more difficult to make the Championship 4. He might not need to win if he doesn't crash at Talladega and one of the other playoff contenders does. Although Byron has not yet won at Talladega (unlike Daytona or Atlanta), he's probably been more consistent here as he has finished seventh or better in 7 of his last 10 starts including his last five. Although often he doesn't lead much, he's pretty consistently been one of the drivers in the hunt for the lead. He's been consistent enough that he's actually a pretty solid option for DFS play, especially since he only starts 13th. However his teammate Chase Elliott is just as consistent, starting even worse, and cheaper so you should start him instead.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
October 19, 2025
Qualifying dominance on other tracks doesn't necessarily carry over to Talladega, but it did for Chase Briscoe, who qualified second to earn his 12th front row start. Although Briscoe only finished 15th in the spring, he led 20 laps and his 15-lap stint out front from laps 26-40 was the second-longest such stint in the race behind his teammate Ty Gibbs. That isn't necessarily a good thing though as in the cases of both Briscoe and Gibbs, the fact that they burnt more fuel while in the lead probably hurt their finish relative to drivers who keep passing and re-passing each other for the lead who are more likely to win. Briscoe has sometimes been awkward on drafting tracks as he won the pole for the Daytona 500 before causing the big one, being penalized, then having that penalty rescinded. Briscoe is unusually cheap, but not a good option since he'll likely finish way worse than second.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
October 19, 2025
Although Kyle Larson isn't particularly known as a drafting-track master -- he has yet to win any races either using the classic restrictor plates or the more recent tapered spacers -- he is improving and finished fourth and second in the last two Talladega races despite not really contending for the win. The Hendrick cars are always fast at Talladega, although Chase Elliott and William Byron usually tend to be faster. Larson led 32 laps in the first Next Gen race here in 2022, but aside from that, he's never led more than eight. In an era when there aren't nearly as many crashes as there used to be, Larson will probably finish better than his 19th-place starting position, making him likely to be both a top-tier DFS option and to advance to the Championship Round in the NASCAR playoffs.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
October 19, 2025
Tyler Reddick won the spring race at Talladega in 2024, but it was a little cheap as the Toyotas were the first manufacturer to make their final pit stop in that race, which vaulted Reddick into the lead after the crash John Hunter Nemechek triggered took out most of the others. Since that allowed him to restart on the front row, he simply maintained his position en route to win, but that had more to do with manufacturer strategy than Reddick's own driving. Unlike his teammate Bubba Wallace, he hasn't really been a consistent threata on drafting tracks and indeed that win was the only time he finished bette than seventh, or bette than 14th in the Next Gen era. In a year when he has lost a lot of his top-end speed, he probably won't win and he'll likely finish worse than his starting position of 15th, making him a mediocre option for DFS play.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
October 19, 2025
Although Trackhouse Racing's speed has seriously stagnated on ovals lately, that doesn't matter at Talladega, where many races aren't decided on speed. Ross Chastain won here once in 2022 when he almost stumbled into the lead and led only one lap after Erik Jones' drafting help crashed behind him. He factors for the lead more often than not, but his fourth-place finish in the 2022 fall event was the only other time he earned a top-10 finish. Still, he is always fast at drafting tracks, and at 24th, he starts worse than most of the drivers you could argue are better than him, which means he'll likely earn a fair amount of place-differential points. Additionally, at $8,100, he's cheaper than most of those same drivers, so although there's never a truly great option for DFS at Talladega, Chastain is as safe as it gets.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
October 19, 2025
Although he has seemed a lot slower this year than in previous seasons, Chris Buescher's greatest strength is that he arguably crashes less than any other driver on the NASCAR Cup Series circuit. This year, he has only crashed out of a race once, but that came in this spring's race at Talladega when a failed bump draft from Denny Hamlin sent Hamlin's teammate Christopher Bell into his fellow Chris as they battled for the lead, sending both into the inside retaining wall. That crash was pretty unavoidable, but Buescher's knack for avoiding wrecks in general is his greatest asset. However, despite that, he has surprisingly only finished in the top ten at Talladega three times and the to five only once in 2023. The RFK Racing Fords don't seem to have Team Penske's speed and since Buescher starts in the top half of the field in 14th, you probably don't want to start him.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
October 19, 2025
Ty Gibbs starts 18th at Talladega on Sunday, a track where he has never finished better than 13th. However, he had a great deal of speed in the spring race, leading a race-high 32 laps before the extra fuel he burnt running out front caused many other drivers to jump him after the final exchange of pit stops. Gibbs also led 32 laps at Atlanta, so he is becoming a skillful drafter. Whether he contends for the win will almost certainly depend on whether Toyota has the right strategy for this race, since it seems like whoever leads after the final round of pit stops will win. Austin Cindric utilized a killer strategy to get out of the pits first in the spring race after botching the strategy at Daytona and Talladega, so if Gibbs' crew chief Tyler Allen is paying attention, he might be able to replicate that feat, but don't count on it.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
October 19, 2025
After Justin Haley was released from Spire Motorsports this week, many observers are expecting Daniel Suárez to be his replacement. One way of likely ensuring that would be if he wins at Talladega today. The Trackhouse Racing cars have tended to consistently have speed on these tracks, what with Ross Chastain winning the first Next Gen race here in 2022 and Suárez leading 28 laps in that race and earning top ten finishes in four of the six races since, but he's neve finished better than eighth here and over half his career laps led came in that one race. Suárez has a knack for emerging at the finish of these races, so he might be worth considering for Place Differential points, especially because he starts a mere 26th. He certainly has a lot on the line.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
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