March 5, 2025
Sam Burns has finished inside the top 50 in every event so far this 2025 season. The American golfer has not won since the 2023 WGC Match Play. Despite his five wins on the PGA Tour, Burns almost feels forgotten. Bay Hill may be a golf course that allows him to linger but not truly contend again. The problem is Burns ranks 87th in par-five scoring average. The Arnold Palmer has a few of those. Also, his moving-day scoring average of 71 ranks 133rd. That makes his final rounds more difficult due to playing catch-up. His birdie average is 4.75, which comes in 19th. Burns could be a decent DFS option if one is willing to risk the price. Odds to win the tournament are around plus-5,000 on DraftKings, though. Maybe a top-20 finish at plus-140 is a decent wager.
--Chris Wassel - RotoBallerSource: PGATour.com
March 5, 2025
Coming off a tied-for second-place finish at the Cognizant Classic this past weekend, J.J. Spaun could be destined for more success at this week's Arnold Palmer Invitational. Spaun has seen consistency this year with three top-15 finishes and making the cut in every event he's completed. With Bay Hill measuring at 7,460 yards, players must excel off the tee and hit long iron approach shots. While he ranks 97th in strokes gained off the tee, he makes up for it with his 0.911 strokes gained approach to green, which ranks ninth on tour. His approach from 150-175 yards ranks 28th and 175-200 43rd, distances that make up about 35.5% of all approach shots at the course. Spaun can be an interesting play this week after showcasing that he can putt well on Bermuda grass at last week's event.
--Jake Walker - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour Stats Page
March 5, 2025
Byeong Hun An continues to watch his 2025 season trend in the wrong direction. The South Korean golfer missed consecutive cuts and ranks 150th or worse in three major categories (strokes gained). The putter is not working, drives are not staying on the fairway, and the confidence is not there. Hun A does not set up too well for the Arnold Palmer. That 75-79 at the Genesis Invitational appeared to make him tentative in Florida last week. Bay Hill is always a formidable test and Hun An will be in a 72-player field with many of the top names. Fading him from DFS and betting considerations could prove wise especially if the golf course sees any inclement weather.
--Chris Wassel - RotoBallerSource: PGATour.com
March
5,
2025
Cameron
Young
has
been
the
definition
of
boom-or-bust
this
season,
posting
finishes
of
T8
and
T12,
but
also
struggling
with
a
72nd-place
finish
and
three
missed
cuts
in
his
first
six
events.
He
now
turns
his
attention
to
the
Arnold
Palmer
read more...
March 5, 2025
Justin Thomas has come close to victory multiple times this season, recording three top-10 finishes in his last four starts. He now turns his attention to the Arnold Palmer Invitational, where he has competed three times, posting finishes of T49 (2015), T21 (2023), and T12 (2024). To continue his success at Bay Hill, Thomas will need to be elite off the tee and on approach, as the course ranks among the toughest in both areas. While Thomas has struggled off the tee this year, losing 1.212 strokes and ranking 86th in total driving, he has more than made up for it with his approach play, gaining 1.045 strokes per round — the fifth-best mark on tour. In what are expected to be tough scoring conditions, avoiding bogeys will also be key, and Thomas ranks eighth in this category. It's only a matter of time before he breaks through for a win, and at his $9,400 price tag on DraftKings, fantasy managers can play him confidently.
--Dakota Legg - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
March 5, 2025
After a T3 finish at the Genesis Invitational, Scottie Scheffler has now gone three straight events without being at the top of the leaderboard. This marks his longest drought since this time last year, when he secured his first win of the season at the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational. To repeat that success, Scheffler will need to be elite off the tee and on approach, two areas where he's consistently excelled. Scheffler hasn't lost strokes off the tee in a tour event since Pebble Beach in February of 2024, and he ranks seventh in strokes gained on approach, gaining 0.960 strokes per round. He also ranks in the 98th percentile for proximity from 150-200 yards, a distance that accounts for 35.5% of all approach shots at Bay Hill. In his four trips to the course, he has won twice and posted a T4 and T15. Fantasy managers should continue to play Scheffler confidently in their DFS lineups.
--Dakota Legg - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
March
5,
2025
After
posting
three
top-15
finishes
in
his
first
four
events
of
the
year,
Taylor
Pendrith
has
since
recorded
a
T50
at
the
Genesis
Invitational
and
a
missed
cut
at
last
week's
Cognizant
Classic.
A
major
issue
has
been
his
short
game,
read more...
March 5, 2025
Hideki Matsuyama has recorded back-to-back top-25 finishes at the Genesis Invitational and Phoenix Open and now sets his sights on the Arnold Palmer Invitational, where he will compete for the 11th time. In previous appearances, he's made nine cuts and posted five top-25 finishes, including a T12 last year. To succeed at Bay Hill, Matsuyama will need to be efficient off the tee and with his approach play, as the course ranks among the toughest for both. Known for his elite iron play, he ranks 17th in strokes gained on approach and in the 98th percentile for proximity from 150-200 yards, a distance that accounts for 35.5% of all approach shots here. He also ranks in the 95th percentile for proximity from 200-plus yards. Matsuyama's main issue remains his off-the-tee play, where he's lost 1.679 strokes this year and ranks 175th in total driving. Fantasy managers can confidently play Matsuyama at his $9,300 price tag, and he'll likely be in contention on Sunday if he can improve his first-shot performance.
--Dakota Legg - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
March
4,
2025
After
recording
a
T7
finish
at
Pebble
Beach,
Tom
Kim
followed
up
with
consecutive
T44
finishes
at
the
Genesis
Invitational
and
the
Phoenix
Open.
He
now
looks
ahead
to
the
Arnold
Palmer
Invitational,
an
event
he
has
played
twice,
with
finishes
read more...
March 4, 2025
Christiaan Bezuidenhout has had a primarily mediocre year aside from a T-4 finish at the WM Phoenix Open. In his last two events, the Genesis Invitational and Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches, he finished T-39 and T-42. At the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill this week, players must excel at hitting off the tee and long irons, with the course measuring 7,460 yards. Bezuidenhout ranks 163rd in strokes gained off the tee, 154th in total driving, and 134th in approaches from 175-200 yards. He makes up for this around the green and putting where he's ranked 24th and third in strokes gained. He's still a hazardous play this week, and it's best to avoid him at all costs in DFS.
--Jake Walker - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour Stats Page
March 4, 2025
Coming off a disappointing T50 finish at the Genesis Invitational in February, Jason Day is making another start at Bay Hill. A winner here in 2016, there have been way more examples of good golf than bad, which he'll need to lean into to build some positive momentum before next week's Players Championship. Unfortunately, his ball striking has been slowly declining since the start of the season. The 37-year-old Aussie had gained strokes on approach in all of his first four events at an average of +1.055 and gained strokes off the tee in his last three starts at an average of +0.493 before the Genesis. However, he lost strokes in both metrics there. Bay Hill is luckily a much different animal than Torrey Pines, but the play off the tee will certainly have to come back in form if he hopes to have a chance.
--Todd McGill - RotoBallerSource: Data Golf
March
4,
2025
Billy
Horschel
has
been
a
quintessential
boom-or-bust
player
this
year,
recording
three
missed
cuts
and
three
top-25
finishes
in
his
last
six
starts,
including
a
T25
at
the
Cognizant
Classic
last
week.
He
now
looks
to
find
consistency
at
the
Arnold
read more...
March 4, 2025
Ben Griffin has sniffed victory in back-to-back starts with two consecutive fourth-place finishes at the Cognizant Classic and the Mexico Open. He now looks ahead to the Arnold Palmer Invitational, where he has competed just once, finishing T13 in 2023. To succeed at Bay Hill, players will need to be sharp off the tee and excel with long irons, especially given the forecasted 20-plus-mph winds this weekend. These are areas where Griffin has excelled, ranking 34th in total driving and 58th in strokes gained per round on approach. He also ranks in the 78th percentile for proximity from 200-plus yards, a distance that accounts for 31.7% of all approach shots at this course. Additionally, he is eighth on tour in proximity from 175-200 yards, which makes up 17.4% of all approach shots. Given his recent form and ability to hit these key stats, Griffin is worth strong consideration by fantasy managers at his price tag of $7,600 on DraftKings.
--Dakota Legg - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
March 4, 2025
Coming off his first PGA career win at the Phoenix Open, Thomas Detry followed it up with a 53rd-place finish at the Genesis Invitational last month. He now returns to play in the Arnold Palmer Invitational, an event he has participated in just once, finishing T24 in 2023. To succeed at Bay Hill, which measures 7,460 yards, players will need to execute well off the tee and be sharp with long irons. Detry is ranked 99th in total driving and 137th in strokes gained on approach, where he has lost 0.256 strokes per round. He is also ranked in the 52nd percentile in proximity from 150-200 yards, a distance that accounts for 35.5% of all approach shots at this course. Where Detry can make up strokes is on the greens, as he ranks 14th in strokes gained per round at 0.653. Given his struggles with approach play, Detry may find it difficult to succeed this week, and fantasy managers should consider looking elsewhere at his price tag of $7,200 on DraftKings.
--Dakota Legg - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
March 4, 2025
Wyndham Clark has spent most of his time on the TGL and has not played a PGA event since the Genesis Invitational at Torrey Pines last month, where he finished T31. He now looks ahead to the Arnold Palmer Invitational, an event he has played four times, including a runner-up finish in 2024. To succeed at Bay Hill, players will need to be sharp off the tee and excel with long irons, especially given the forecasted 20-plus-mph winds this weekend. Clark ranks 32nd in driving distance but just 158th in driving accuracy. He has also lost 0.251 strokes on approach and ranks in the 24th percentile for approach shots from 200-plus yards, a range that accounts for 31.7% of all approach shots at this course, including three of the four par-threes. While the upside from Clark is undeniable, his recent form suggests it may be best to avoid him in DFS lineups this week.
--Dakota Legg - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
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