RADIO
Marco Gonzales 2021 Outlook: A Repeat of 2020 Success Unlikely
4 years agoThe 28-year-old Marco Gonzales authored a tremendous 2020 campaign for the Seattle Mariners, going 7-2 with a 3.10 ERA over 69 2/3 IP. Unfortunately, his peripherals suggest that nearly all of his success was the result of smoke and mirrors. Gonzales's 4.13 xFIP was more than a full run higher than his ERA. Gonzales rarely eclipses 90 mph on the radar gun, and his curve's 11.2 SwStr% was the highest mark in his entire five-pitch arsenal. As such, it's tough to project a repeat of his 23.1 K% in 2021. Likewise, his 37.6 GB% and zero DRS were way too low to try for a Dallas Keuchel approach. Baseball Savant's expected statistics also argue against any kind of contact suppression ability, as both his .245 xBA and .435 xSLG were way higher than his actual marks (.222 and .361, respectively). The Mariners are probably still a couple of years away from projecting as a strong club, so Gonzales probably won't win as many games in 2021 as he did in 2020. You have to figure that his 2.5 BB% will regress to something more mortal. Add it all together, and you can find a better fantasy arm with a price tag comparable to Gonzales's ADP of 152.
