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Luis Robert 2023 Player Outlook: First-Round Upside from a Very Risky Pick
2 years agoFew hitters busted as hard as Robert did in 2022. After routinely being picked in the first round, he hit just 12 homers and stole 11 bases across 400 plate appearances and slugged a disappointing .426. There were plenty of injuries to blame here, but that has become a running theme in this guys' young career. What we did see again is incredible bat speed (max exit velocity of 117.8 miles per hour), and above-average foot speed (65th percentile). There is no doubting Robert's incredible fantasy ceiling, but the health questions reign supreme here. He swings the bat a ton (61.5%, the third-highest swing rate in the league) and that leads to almost no walks (4%), but he has the tools to turn in a 30-homer, 30-steal, .280+ batting average season, and I imagine that at some point he will accomplish something very close to that. Given a fresh slate of health and 150+ games played in 2023, there's little doubt Robert will smash his ADP which is currently above pick 40. Taking him in the first five rounds could pay off big time, but it's hard to call him anything but a very risky investment right now.
