December 21, 2020

How long will Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Lucas Giolito's ugly past linger in our memories? He is only three seasons removed from a 16% strikeout rate, a 6.13 ERA and a 5.56 FIP. Recent data is always more reliable, and the 249 innings he has thrown since that disastrous season have been nothing less than sparkling. He has posted strikeout rates of 32.3% and 33.7% while keeping the walks to a league-average level. The result of that has been a 3.43 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP overall, earning Giolito Cy Young votes in the last two seasons. One knock you could attempt to put on Giolito is that he has a limited arsenal, throwing just three pitches at significant rates and owing more than 80% of his pitch distribution to his fastball-changeup combination. He is also not a ground-ball pitcher by any stretch of the imagination, with 41.3% and 36% ground-balls rates the last two seasons, respectively. The silver lining is very silver -- he has shown an ability to avoid contact that is nearly untouched, posting contact rates of 65.8% and 69.6% and in-zone contact rates of 74.6% and 77.3% since he turned his career around in 2019. The swinging-strike rates really end the doubts for this analyst, as Giolito has drawn ridiculous 17.3% and 15.0% swinging-strike rates in these last two campaigns, respectively. It is time to forgive the past. Giolito is a fantasy ace that you can draft with confidence.--Jon Anderson