RADIO
Julio Urias 2023 Player Outlook: Expect Regression But Still An SP1 Candidate
2 years agoJulio Urias had his best year in the Majors in 2022, with a 17-7 W-L record, 2.16 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 166 Ks (175.0 IP). Only Justin Verlander had a lower ERA among qualified pitchers and that helped him to third in the NL Cy Young voting (behind Sandy Alcantara and Max Fried). So, it should come as no surprise that Urias has an ADP of ~49 (as the 12th starting pitcher) and there's nothing to suggest he can't offer value on that ADP. Urias' underlying numbers last year do suggest he was a bit lucky and we should expect regression, with a 2.81 xERA, 3.66 SIERA and 3.81 xFIP. Urias' HardHit% ranked in the 96th percentile and he has a career 4.00 xFIP and 3.91 SIERA despite having a career 2.82 ERA so it's not something that should put you off from drafting Urias. Urias might not manage 200 IP like other SP1 candidates but his 360.2 IP over the last two years has only been bettered by 12 other pitchers so there shouldn't be any concerns over his resilience. On a team that continues to put up runs, outside of strikeouts, there's no reason not to take Urias at his ADP.
