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Jose Abreu 2021 Fantasy Outlook: Overvalued After An MVP Season
4 years agoNot many people had Chicago White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu as their pick for the 2020 American League MVP award, but he certainly earned it, hitting .317 with 19 homers and 60 RBI in the 60 games the White Sox played. But where does this put him for 2021? Abreu has always fared better in the warmest months -- a career .413 wOBA in August compared to .354 in March/April -- so that might explain some of his red-hot 60 games during the shortened season. He has also had massive RBI luck the last two seasons, averaging an RBI for every 1.4 of his hits (the league average is 1.98). The career-high batting average in 2020 also appears to have been aided by luck, as he also posted career-worsts in strikeout rate (22.5%) and contact rate (71.1%). First base remains a shallow position in 2021, but chasing an MVP season from a 34-year-old seems like a poor use of a high draft pick. Let someone else pay the premium on Abreu.
