Joey Votto 2019 Outlook: Still An Elite Hitter At A Weak Position
6 years ago2018 was not the campaign that Joey Votto owners were expecting with a .284/.418/.419 slash and only 12 homers. While the batting line is still good value for the position, if Votto is to keep his high draft value, the power needs to return. The other downside from 2018 was that Votto posted his lowest walk rate since 2011, and his lowest batting average since a shortened 2014 season. The good news is that even with the declining walk numbers, his .417 OBP, still had him placed third in the league behind Mike Trout and Mookie Betts, so there is still a floor that puts him among elite company. There are a few reasons to buy back in on Votto for 2019, as he did see close to 100 fewer PAs in 2018, and for a player who does not usually fight injuries, this should be an exception, adding to gross counting stats. Also, even with declining runs and RBI numbers, with career-lows in the 60s, the team in Cincinnati should be better in 2019 with the additions of Yasiel Puig, Nick Senzel, and a healthy Jesse Winker. Therefore, the team context should cause some positive regression here as well. For draft position, Votto should still be targeted as top-eight at the position, but let other owners take the upside, and settle for the average power numbers as the baseline. If he can hit over 25 homers, then Votto is a top-five player at first, but if not, a top-eight draft slot rewards the floor for that it is.