December 19, 2020

In 2020, Jeff McNeil hit just four home runs over 183 at-bats. Extrapolated over the course of a full 162-game season, it equated to 10-12 HR. This represented a noticeable decline when compared to his 23 HR outburst in 2019. McNeil's overall exit velocity, 2.5% barrel rate, and overall hard-hit rate of 26.5% were well below his career and MLB averages (as well as his 2019 numbers), supporting this decline. Notwithstanding, McNeil remained consistent posting a .311 batting average, a .383 on-base percentage, and 14 doubles in 2020 (after hitting .318 with a .384 OBP and 38 doubles in 2019). While his batting average and OBP were supported by an elite K% and whiff rate, McNeil outperformed his .278 xBA and .325 xwOBA, though similar outperformance in 2019 didn't impact his final 2019 numbers. In 2021, McNeil will again be a stable source of elite hitting with solid RBI and run production at the top of a stacked Mets lineup that now boasts Francisco Lindor. His multi-position eligibility in the outfield, second base, and third base further adds to his fantasy value as an attractive Swiss Army knife for managers. That said, HR expectations should be tempered. McNeil will be a safe bet for a .310 batting average, a .380 OBP, 10-15 HR, 75-85 runs, 70-80 RBI, and 32-40 doubles in 2021. Such production from a consistent, multi-position eligible regular is well worth his ADP of 98 in mixed league formats.--Nick Ritrivi - RotoBaller