Jameson Taillon 2021 Player Outlook: Potential To Far Outperform ADP If Healthy
4 years agoJameson Taillon had his second Tommy John surgery in 2019 after making just seven starts for the Pirates in 2019. In those seven starts, Taillon posted a 4.10 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and a 30:8 K:BB in 37 1/3 innings pitched. Since arriving in the majors in 2016, Taillon's issue has been his ability to stay on the mound. Otherwise, excluding the small 2019 sample size, Taillon has consistently proven to be a reliable starting pitcher with excellent control who has limited damage against him. From 2016-2018, Taillon posted elite walk, overall barrel, and curveball spin rates, to go with a fastball velocity well above league averages. His career 50% ground ball rate and resulting career 0.93 HR/9 IP rate have supported his career 3.67 ERA and 3.55 FIP. Heading into 2021, Taillon presents questions including durability, ability to replicate prior success, and the impact of his move to New York. Though he has not, essentially, pitched since 2018, reports indicate that the 29-year-old has been throwing the ball well. While he moves to a more difficult pitcher's park and A.L. East division, the adverse impact on his fantasy value may be offset by the opportunity to accumulate many more wins in the Bronx and his ability to avoid the long ball. If Taillon proves healthy, he is a potential steal around the 20th round. He can provide managers with precious innings, a sub-4.00 ERA, a sub-1.25 WHIP, wins, and a decent number of strikeouts. Though managers shouldn't reach for him, despite his move to the Yankees, he remains worth the risk if he can be rostered at his current ADP of 237.