5 years agoMinnesota Twins starting pitcher Jake Odorizzi put together a solid 2019 campaign, going 15-7 with a 3.51 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and 27.1% strikeout rate over 159 IP. The most impressive metric was Odorizzi’s jump in strikeout rate compared to a 22.8% career mark. This could be attributed to a bump in velocity on two of his three fastballs; Odorizzi’s four-seam fastball averaged 92.9 MPH compared to 91.1 MPH in 2018 and his split-finger fastball averaged 85.2 MPH compared to 84.2 MPH in 2018. Consequently, his swinging-strike rates on the pitches were both a good deal above his career averages (14.9% vs 10.5% for four-seamer, 13.6% vs 12.9% for split-finger). However, 91.5% of Odorizzi’s pitches were fastballs in 2019, so it would not be surprising to see some negative regression in his strikeout rate in 2020. Further, his batted-ball profile was about league average in 2019, but his 4.14 SIERA suggests that he got a bit lucky given his ERA. Overall, even if Odorizzi regresses towards his career numbers of a 3.88 ERA and 22.8% strikeout rate, he represents a decent back-end fantasy option with one of baseball’s strongest offenses backing him. Odorizzi is currently being drafted at about pick 185 overall or pitcher 70. This seems like decent value for him, although, given potential regression, somewhere closer to pick 200 would be a safer target draft spot.--Connelly Doan - RotoBaller