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Gregory Soto 2023 Outlook: Lack of Results Should Prevent Him from Collecting Saves
Most people assumed that Gregory Soto would be the ninth-inning guy in Detroit but his trade to the Phillies changed everything. The Tigers were terrible but Soto still recorded 30 saves last year. That likely won't happen with the Phillies who have three guys with just as much ninth-inning experience in Seranthony Dominguez, Jose Alvarado, and Craig Kimbrel. Kimbrel has by far the most name recognition in Philadelphia's pen, and Alvarado is an LHP that ensures Soto won't get all of the save opps when lefties are due up in the ninth. Another reason to be skeptical of Soto is that he wasn't that good last season. His 3.28 ERA masks a 4.08 xERA and 4.59 xFIP, so you shouldn't bank on a repeat unless you're expecting another 3.4 HR/FB. His 22.8 K% was also quite low for an MLB closer, especially when paired with a 12.9 BB%. Soto added a four-seam fastball last season that was solid with an 11.6 SwStr% and 55.8 Zone% but didn't boost his slider as effectively as his sinker, causing the slider's SwStr% to fall from 20.7 in 2021 to 15.1 last year. Soto might right the ship and return to his 2021 27.5 K%, but the more likely scenario is that one of the trio above relegates him to left-handed set-up work.
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