Gerrit Cole 2019 Outlook: A True Fantasy Ace Has Emerged
6 years agoOoooh baby it finally happened. After years of stops and starts, injuries and stretches of brilliance, Gerrit Cole finally made good on the promise that led him to be selected as the first overall pick in the 2011 draft. Over 200 innings, the 28-year-old laid down a 2.88 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, .196 batting average against to go along with a career-best 276 strikeouts. The counting stats are backed up by the analytics too, as Cole’s xFIP of 3.04 represented a new personal record during his time in the bigs. Much of the improvement can be tied to the addition of a whopping 4.6% to his swinging-strike rate, marrying with his already filthy pitch mix and deception to take that step into Cy Young contention. It’s generally agreed that Houston’s coaching staff pushed Cole to utilize his secondary pitches more frequently instead of relying so heavily on his heater. The change in approach combined with continued health suggests that Cole’s breakout is real.
In 2018, Cole was one of the five best pitchers in baseball, full stop, end of conversation. Currently, Cole is being drafted on average as the ninth pitcher off the board and 30th overall, with an expected auction price of $20. While the draft price is a little rich for me, as I hate taking pitchers before the fifth, a late second to early third-round grade is pretty good when his contemporaries are being drafted between the fifth and 28th picks. The auction value strikes me as a prime target, especially with much more depressed assets like Zack Greinke, Jack Flaherty, and James Paxton going for just a few dollars less. Give me the greater upside for the extra five or six bucks. Cole is a legit fantasy ace, and I would value him as the fourth or fifth-best starter in baseball from a fantasy perspective. If you found him available in the fourth round, a distinct possibility, he could be a league winner.