January 24, 2021

Garrett Richards signed a one-year deal with Boston, which will move him into the dangerous AL East for the 2021 season. The oft-injured 32-year-old returned to throw 51.1 innings across 14 appearances (10 starts) in 2020 after having only thrown 8.2 innings during the 2019 season. From a health standpoint, Richards looked good. His fastball sat at 95.1 mph, his off-speed pitches had above-average drop, and he showed the ability to pitch deep into games, going into the seventh three times despite the Padres being aggressive in pulling their starters early. While the velocity was nice to see, Richards did allow 8.8% barrels and an 89.8 mph average exit velocity, which were both higher than league average. While we can't reasonably expect him to be the same pitcher he was as a healthy 27-year-old, there were some intriguing signs. For starters, only three of his 10 starts were actually poor. Two of them, in which he allowed eight earned runs in 10.2 innings (7.06 ERA), were within his first three starts of the year and one was in Coors. Considering his long layoff, expecting rust would have made sense. His 11.2 SwStr% is in line with his career numbers and put him in the same range as strong strikeout arms like Sonny Gray and Lance Lynn. Richards also registered a minuscule 8% walk rate and increased slider usage, throwing it 37.8% of the time, which is good news since it had a .166 xBA, 39.5% Whiff%, and 26.4% PutAway%. The move to Fenway would seem to be a downgrade on the surface; however, Fenway ranked 19th in HR park factors while Petco ranked 25th, so it's not all bad news. I expect Richards' strikeout numbers to go up as he is further removed from injury and believe he can register to a low-to-mid 4s ERA and a reasonable WHIP. That type of arm is in the Jake Odorizzi range, but Odorizzi, who doesn't have a team, currently has an ADP of 287 while Richards has one of 431. I expect that to change now that he's signed, but you can feel comfortable taking Richards as you near that 280-range.--Eric Samulski