Eloy Jimenez 2021 Player Outlook: A Big Step Forward to Top 50 Player
4 years agoAre you excited about Eloy Jimenez this year? Of course you are. The 6' 4", 235-pound, 24-year-old improved in all the right ways for the Chicago White Sox in 2020 and heads into 2021 with a top 50 ADP according to NFBC. Jimenez hit 14 home runs in 55 games in 2020 (a 41 HR pace over 162 games) and posted a .296 AVG over 226 plate appearances, nearly a 30-point increase from his standout rookie season. Even more promising is the underlying metrics that seem to support the sustainability of that growth, with his barrel rate rising from 12.8% (89th-percentile) to 16.5% (96th-percentile) and his Hard Hit% increasing from 47.9% (top-10%) to 55.7% (top-2%). Even more impressive was his percentage of balls hit in the air at 100+ mph (55.7% was top 2% of MLB), one of the best predictive measures for future power. His average launch angle did decrease from 9.3 degrees to 5.7 degrees but the small sample of the shortened season could have played a role. There are some concerns with his walk and strikeout rates, the usual suspects for many power hitters, with Jimenez posting a 5.3% BB% that was the 15th lowest among qualified hitters and a 24.8% K% that was the 43rd highest. His overall Swing% and Chase% both increased but so did his swings on balls in the zone. And his Meatball% (swings on balls right down the middle) rose from 76.5% to 88.2%, showing that the big man is less willing to let good pitches pass him by. But his ceiling could drop a bit if his strikeout rate rises and the low walk-rate should be of particular concern to those playing in leagues that score OBP. Jimenez is coming off the board around pick 40, which still leaves some room for value if he shows continued growth from what we saw last season. If he's still sitting there in the fourth round, you should feel confident in scooping him up.