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Eduardo Rodriguez 2020 Outlook: Expect Regression To 2018
Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez enjoyed a mini breakout last year fueled by a 19-6 record, 3.81 ERA and 213 strikeouts in 203.1 innings pitched. While the 26-year-old lefty was certainly a valuable contributor, much of his 2019 numbers were exactly the same as his 2018 ones, except for a six-win increase. His 3.81 ERA last year was only a slight increase from his 3.83 ERA in 2018. His K%-BB% was 16.1 last year, which was worse than his 18.3% in 2018. His SwStr% of 11.7 was only a slight increase from his 11.1 in 2018, and there was no discernible difference in his pitch mix or pVAL outside of his fastball jumping from a 2.8 to a 10.8 even though it dropped .4 miles per hour. The underlying metrics tell the same exact story. His xBA was .001 better than in 2018, his xSLG was .008 better, and his barrel% was .8 better. Essentially, Eduardo Rodriguez has been the same pitcher over the last two years, outside of fluky wins, and should likely remain the same pitcher again this year. Draft him expecting 13-15 wins, an ERA around 3.80, a WHIP around 1.30 and a 25% K rate. He'll be a fine arm, and a solid SP3 or SP4 depending on league size, but he shouldn't be going at 135 ahead of Frankie Montas and Max Fried.
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