January 23, 2021

Atlanta Braves starter Drew Smyly was dominant in seven appearances for San Francisco last season, posting a 3.42 ERA and a monster 37.8% strikeout rate in 2020. It was the first time Smyly finished with an ERA lower than 4.88 since 2015, and after a long, treacherous journey recovering from Tommy John, Smyly looks ready to produce at the big league level again. The southpaw rediscovered his killer curveball in 2020, a pitch that generated a 40.8% chase rate and 22.4% swinging strike rate last season. Opposing batters flailed hopelessly at Smyly's bender, posting just a .184 BA and a 55 wRC+ against the pitch in 2020. Smyly also used his curveball 36.5% of the time, which was a career high by far. As a fragile lefty with a strong curveball and big upside, the best comparison for Smyly seems to be Rich Hill. That could be either a good thing or bad thing depending on how you look at it, but Smyly certainly has the potential and pedigree to be dominant in short bursts. It would be a miracle to see Smyly top 150 innings pitched in a 162-game season, but he's capable of providing an incredible 50-125 innings between IL stints. He's also capable of making two starts and spending the rest of the year on the shelf, or imploding completely and posting an ERA north of five. When considering whether to draft Smyly (ADP ~228) one should consider their risk appetite and willingness to stream replacement starters. There's a spot for Smyly on someone's fantasy team, but that manager must be willing to roll with the punches. The reward may very well be worth it for those who draft Smyly.--Elliott Baas