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Danny Jansen 2019 Outlook: A Third-Tier Catcher with Upside
Danny Jansen debuted in 2018 with a solid but unspectacular .247 BA and 3 HR in under 100 PA. The promotion came after an impressive 2018 in Triple-A where he displayed above-average plate discipline along with very good power (.198 ISO) for a catcher. While his plate discipline regressed a bit once in the majors, the power did not (.185 ISO), which is an encouraging data point for 2019. With the trade of Russell Martin to the Dodgers, Jansen will be the everyday catcher for the Blue Jays in 2019. Because he is likely to hit in the lower third of the batting order, expectations should be tempered with respect to his counting stats. Despite an above-average K%, Jansen projects to have a below-average BABIP due to his speed and very high IFFB%, so his BA will likely be in the .250-.260 range. He is more valuable in OBP leagues due to his above-average BB%. That said, the soon-to-be 24-year-old catcher with a plus hit tool represents one of the more promising third-tier options given his clear path to playing time and a BA that may not help, but should not hurt. A catcher who projects to 12-15 HR and 50-60 RBI can provide a solid return on investment for a team who drafts him in the later rounds, and he is an especially nice target in two-catcher leagues.
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