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Dallas Keuchel 2021 Outlook: Expected Regression Makes Him Unrosterable in All Formats
4 years agoDallas Keuchel had a great first year with the White Sox, going 6-2 with a 1.99 ERA over 63 1/3 IP. Unfortunately, no pitcher is due for more negative regression. His 3.98 xFIP was nearly two full runs higher than his ERA, and Baseball Savant's expected ERA metric liked him even less at 4.39. Lest you think some sort of contact suppression was in play, his xBA of .282 was much higher than his .218 average against. Likewise, his .397 xSLG was 100 points higher than his actual .286 mark. He also finished the campaign with zero DFS, suggesting that Keuchel is no longer the defensive standout he once was. Keuchel appeared to change his pitch mix to get more strikeouts, most notably throwing more cutters (20.2% in 2019, 29.7% last year) at the expense of his signature sinker (48.9% to 33.1%). It didn't work, as Keuchel's 16.3 K% was as low as it typically is. Furthermore, Keuchel's cutter only posted a 28.8 GB% against his sinker's 62.4%. What we have here is a former Gold Glover who has become a neutral defender, a ground ball specialist pitching away from grounders, and one of the most fortunate pitchers in the league. His ADP of 195.78 isn't expensive, and yet you're still better off rolling the dice on somebody with upside.
