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Cedric Mullins 2023 Outlook: Overpriced Speed Play Presents Risk Everywhere Else
Cedric Mullins did not repeat his outstanding 2021 season, slashing .258/.318/.403 with 16 HR and 34 SB last season. Fantasy managers can likely count on another 30+ steals, but the rest of Mullins's profile has more questions than answers. His HR/FB was cut in half from 15.5% in 2021 to 7.8% last year. The Orioles moving the fences in is partially responsible for this change, but Mullins also lost a full tick of average airborne exit velocity (92.4 mph to 91.3) and a substantial percentage of his Brls/BBE (8.1% to 4.9%). Put simply, the homers aren't coming back. Despite that, Mullins put up a 43.4 FB% and 13.6 IFFB% last year which would be expected of a true slugger. That puts downward pressure on his BABIP and batting average, and his .232 xBA suggests that Mullins was fortunate to hit nearly .260 last season. Mullins offers solid plate discipline (7 BB%, 18.8 K%), hits at the top of Baltimore's improving lineup, and speed, but you shouldn't have to take a hit in the power and BA categories at an ADP of 49.15.
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