Brad Hand 2021 Player Outlook: Job Security Despite Fastball Warning Signs
4 years agoNow with the Nationals, closer Brad Hand will retain his role as an MLB closer heading into 2021. With Cleveland in 2020, Hand again performed as a relief-ace. He posted a 2.05 ERA, a 0.78 WHIP, and 29 strikeouts in 22 innings pitched while leading the MLB in saves with a perfect 16 saves in 16 attempts. Looking at his metrics, his fastball is not what it once was. In 2020, Hand's fastball velocity fell to 91.4 mph from 92.7 mph in 2019 (and 93.8 mph in 2018) dropping to the bottom third of the league. Additionally, the whiff rate on his fastball bottomed out to just 9.4% in 2020. Of course, Hand's slider, which generated a 25% put away rate and 38.8% whiff rate, remained elite. As a result, Hand threw his slider over 50% of the time helping him to post overall K% and BB% rates which were in the top-8% of MLB. Hand also allowed a minuscule xBA of .175 (top 4% of MLB) and wOBA of .213 (top-2% of MLB). Heading into 2021, Hand has job security and motivation to reestablish his market working on a one-year contract. With a 143 ADP, he is being drafted as the eighth or ninth closer taken off boards. This ADP is appropriate for a reliever who has amassed 103 saves over the past four seasons, particularly where there are only a handful of closers with the role solely to themselves. That said, managers should exercise caution. While Hand should post an 11.0 K/9, along with 25+ saves for a competitive team in 2021, we may see some ratio regression if fastball struggles continue. As a result, managers rostering Hand may want to handcuff him with Tanner Rainey later in drafts, just in case.