January 28, 2019

Freshly minted Cy Young winner Blake Snell took a stratospheric step forward in 2018. To go along with a dazzling 1.89 ERA, the 26-year-old chucked 11 strikeouts per nine innings and produced a microscopic 0.97 ERA over 180.2 innings. While you might agree with Justin Verlander, and Kate Upton for that matter, that the Astros ace was robbed, you can’t argue that Snell was one of the best pitchers in baseball in 2018. Some of the value that Snell brings to the table as a fantasy player, and much of the Verlander apologists’ argument against him, are the players behind him. The Rays’ defense was near the top of the league in metrics like Runs on Average Per Game, Defensive Efficiency, and Total Zone Rating. Snell has talked openly that trust in the guys behind him emboldened him to keep the ball in the strike zone, actually raising his strike outs. While Snell has been considered a top prospect for a few years now, the value jump to ace was still surprising. Much to my Rotoballer colleagues’ chagrin, I nabbed him for just $9 on a $400 budget, and this gives you a good idea of where Snell’s value was heading into 2018. For 2019, players will get no such discount. Currently valued as the 27th overall pick and seventh pitcher off the board, it’s entirely possible that the helium has left no room for value. The huge jump in production was fueled by massive improvement in his greatest area of weakness: control. Snell walked 5.16 and 4.11 per nine innings in the seasons before putting up a 3.19 BB/9 in 2018. In some ways, the fact that so much of his improvement was fueled by something that was less individualized and more institutional, that being the team defense, gives us confidence that the gains are real. However, with a 3.16 xFIP in 2018, there is likely some regression to his run suppression numbers on the way. The 27th overall pick is a little rich for my blood, as I’d prefer picking up a bat like Andrew Benintendi or an undervalued Kris Bryant or Carlos Correa. All of these guys are supposed to go later than Snell. It wouldn’t be surprising if a handful of bats bump ahead of him during Sprint Training, but he’s likely to stick around the late second to early third in shallow leagues and around $19 in auction. The auction value is more defensible, but the draft pick investment is a little too much for my tastes. I’m likely passing at that price for a high value bat. But wiping draft value out of the equation, Snell’s gains appear to be real, and he brings a recipe for a top 10 starting pitcher in fantasy.--Sean Scampton