RADIO
Anthony Rizzo 2021 Outlook: Down Year Creates Buying Opportunity
4 years agoAnthony Rizzo did not have his best year in 2020, slashing .222/.342/.414 with 11 long balls over 243 PAs. That said, there is plenty of evidence for a rebound. Rizzo's .218 BABIP was very low even for a guy who consistently struggles with it (.286 career), and Baseball Savant's Statcast metrics argue that he deserved a .266 average last season based on his exit velocities and launch angles. Rizzo has never been a Statcast darling, but he managed to improve both his average airborne exit velocity (93 mph vs. 92.5 in 2019) and rate of Brls/BBE (7.8% vs. 6.8%) last season as well. His plate discipline was virtually unchanged too, with little difference between 2019 (11.6 BB%, 14 K%) and 2020 (11.5, 15.6). Indeed, the root of Rizzo's struggles appears to be an IFFB% surge (17.7% against a career mark of 9.2%) and an uncharacteristic performance against the shift (.217 vs. .312 against it in 2019). A regression to the norm portends the 31-year-old will figure out both issues in 2021. Rizzo also projects as Chicago's second hitter in the lineup, so he should have abundant opportunity to rack up counting stats. Rizzo is worth rolling the dice on at his ADP of 96.
