March 4, 2018

Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Alex Cobb has some appeal heading into 2018, but a move from Tampa Bay to Baltimore may be a wet blanket on his hype to open the season. Cobb, who had Tommy John surgery in 2015, has yet to regain his pre-surgery form, but was 12-10 with a 3.66 ERA for the Rays last season. In 2013 and 2014, Cobb went 21-12 with a 2.82 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 309 2/3 innings, showing the full extent of his upside. He also had an elevated strikeout rate of 8.2 per nine in those two seasons, down to just 6.4 per nine in 179 1/3 innings last season. Cobb did see a dip in walks to 2.1 per nine (2.6 career average), so his K:BB ratio was 2.91 in 2017 (better than a career 2.79 rate). His 29 game started and 179 2/3 innings pitched were each career-highs, but so too were his 8.8 hits per nine that he allowed for Tampa Bay. Cobb also had a bit of an issue with home runs (22 allowed), down from allowing less than one home run per nine. While there are good signs from 2017, Cobb did allow a career-worst 36.9% hard hit ball rate and induced less than 50% ground balls (47.8%) for the first time in his career. He also allowed more than 30% fly balls for the first time of his career, a logical reasoning behind the boost in home runs. If Cobb is able to generate more ground balls, he could be in a place to put up a very solid season, but a move to Baltimore will really make his fly ball rate stick out like a sore thumb. He has allowed 23 earned runs in 37 innings at Camden Yards in his career, going 3-1 while yielding four home runs.  Either way, Cobb should be valued as a high-floor SP4 in mixed leagues.--Chris Zolli