Pitcher Advanced Metrics Studs and Duds - Swinging-Strike Rate For Week 3

Connelly Doan examines pitchers whose particular swinging-strike rates could make them worth adding or dropping in fantasy baseball for Week 3.

Welcome back to RotoBaller’s Statcast pitcher Studs and Duds article series! Each week, I will select one advanced metric, choose two pitchers with strong values and two with poor values, and analyze what those values may mean for future performance. We still have small sample sizes because the season is early, but a metric that can be useful now is swinging-strike rate (Swstr%).

SwStr% is the percentage of pitches a hitter sees that they miss (or the percentage of pitches a pitcher throws that induce swinging strikes). It is not as directly applicable of a metric as strikeout rate to fantasy production because strikeouts hold direct fantasy value, as opposed to missed strikes in general. However, pitchers are generally more likely to succeed if they can miss bats and keep the ball out of play. Further, pitchers who can miss bats can generate more strikeouts.

Pitchers can be valuable in fantasy by pitching to contact, but those with strong SwStr% do have an advantage. Identifying pitchers who can consistently miss bats is a sound way to hunt for fantasy value. I will only focus on starters for this article, as relievers tend to have higher SwStr% overall. As a final disclaimer, it is still very early in the season, so most metrics should not be taken completely at face value. Without further ado, let's take a look at some SwStr% starting studs and duds!

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SwStr% Studs

All stats are current as of Sunday, April 24, 2022.

Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays

(1-1, 2.89 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 20.7% SwStr%)

Kevin Gausman revitalized his career over the 2020-2021 seasons with the San Francisco Giants, and he was rewarded with a five-year, $110 million this offseason by the Blue Jays. There were some concerns that Gausman may not be as effective as he was in San Francisco, given the move away from a pitcher-friendly park and to a very tough division. However, Gausman hasn't missed a beat so far, posting a 2.89 ERA, 30.1% strikeout rate, and baseball's best 20.7% SwStr% in his first 18 2/3 innings pitched. How has he kept things going with his new team?

Gausman can thank his secondary pitches for his high SwStr%. He relies mainly on a four-seam fastball (47% usage), a split-finger fastball (32.3% usage), and a slider (15.9% usage). His fastball is about league average in terms of velocity and movement, so his pedestrian 6.8% SwStr% with the pitch is not surprising. However, his split finger has been absolutely filthy this season. He is achieving more horizontal and vertical movement with the pitch compared to 2021 and has achieved a 36.1% SwStr% with the pitch, compared to a 22.8% mark for his career. Conversely, Gausman's slider has very little movement and almost acts like a cutter, but he has achieved a 30% SwStr% so far compared to a 12.9% mark for his career. He has kept both pitches on the bottom corners of the zone and has achieved career-best results with both.

Simply put, Gausman has featured two of baseball's best swing-and-miss pitches so far this season, and it clearly is reflected in his overall SwStr%. Both his split-finger and his slider have been strong pitches for him over the past several seasons, but they have been even better to this point. I would not expect these rates to remain quite this high given how much higher his SwStr% is for both pitches relative to his career marks. That being said, I have no worries that Gausman won't be a higher-end fantasy contributor this season.

Shane McClanahan, Tampa Bay Rays

(1-1, 2.45 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 17.6% SwStr%)

This young pitcher appears to be someone who could be a fantasy staple for seasons to come. Shane McClanahan had a strong rookie season and is off to a great 2022. The 24-year-old has logged a 2.45 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and an impressive 40.7% strikeout rate and 17.6% SwStr%. McClanahan appears to be a legitimate high-end fantasy starter, even this early in his career. Let's take a look at how McClanahan has missed so many bats.   

McClanahan has a great pitch arsenal at his disposal. He implements a fastball, curveball, slider, and changeup. All of his pitches are thrown hard, have good movement on them, and are mixed well with good location. Consequently, he has achieved strong SwStr% for each of his four pitches. His SwStr% for his pitches are: fastball, 8.1%; curveball, 23.7%; slider, 22.1%; changeup, 25%. He also fools hitters in general, as his 21% called-strike rate is the sixth-highest among qualified starters. Simply put, McClanahan has both the pitch mix and the skills to locate those pitches to be a bat-missing machine.

Data from baseballsavant.mlb.com

McClanahan appears to be one of baseball's bright young starters and has the tools to be a high-end fantasy starter as well. He has a strong fastball and a great set of secondary pitches, he gets good movement on all his pitches with high velocities, and he gets both swings and misses as well as called strikes. I have high confidence that he will keep one of baseball's highest SwStr% throughout the season.

SwStr% Duds

All stats are current as of Sunday, April 24, 2022.

Zack Greinke, Kansas City Royals

(0-1, 2.25 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 3.5% SwStr%)

It is well known that Zack Greinke is one of baseball's most interesting personalities. True to form, the 38-year-old has found unorthodox pitching approaches to still pitch relatively well into the later stages of his career. Greinke has returned to the Royals for a one-year deal and has looked good so far, posting a 2.25 ERA and 1.19 WHIP through his first three starts. However, his 3.5% SwStr% is the lowest among qualified starters, and he has just two strikeouts in his first 16 IP. Will Greinke end up being a late-round steal, or will his lack of strikeouts end up hurting fantasy managers?  

There are two ways to look at this. Greinke has never thrown hard, so he needs to be especially crafty now that he only averages 88.6 MPH on his four-seam fastball. So on the one hand, Greinke's 9.9% career SwStr% indicates that his current mark is unreasonably low, even considering his lack of overpowering stuff. On the other hand, he needs to maintain a strong batted-ball profile to be effective overall, regardless of strikeout considerations. Greinke has gotten good results overall to this point, but his batted-ball profile leaves things to be desired. His average exit velocity is in the 50th percentile, his hard-hit rate is in the 21st percentile, and his average launch angle of 10.6 degrees leaves little room for error; his 5.67 SIERA suggests that he has gotten quite lucky.

This one is tougher to call. An average draft position of 319 seems almost insulting, given the career that Greinke has had. Anyone who did draft him took a very low risk, with even average performance resulting in a solid reward. Greinke's relatively low SwStr% compared to his career mark suggests positive regression to come. However, Greinke's fantasy value would plummet if his SIERA ends up playing out, regardless of how many hitters he strikes out. At this point, I would consider Greinke as a potential sell-high candidate, but I also wouldn't mind holding onto Greinke for now if I did draft him.

Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals

(2-2, 3.86 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 6.2% SwStr%)

Our final pitcher has been a fantasy staple for many seasons. Adam Wainwright is 40-years-old and is heading into his 17th season, but he currently has a 3.86 ERA across four starts. Wainwright has been a useful fantasy pitcher in various capacities over the course of his career, but one thing he has never done is post a high SwStr%. This season is no different, as his 6.2% SwStr% is the second-lowest among qualified starters. Like Greinke, his ADP of 194 suggests that fantasy managers have concerns about Wainwright's age and potential performance. Are these concerns founded?

Similar to Greinke, Wainwright does not have overpowering stuff. He does have a good pitch mix of mainly sinker, curveball, cutter, and changeup, but he pitches to contact to find success; his 84.3% contact rate is the fifth-highest among qualified starters. His secondary pitches do generate decent SwStr%, with his curveball at 11% and his cutter at 9.7%. However, his overall career SwStr% is 8.6%, so his current 6.2% is not all that different or concerning. The encouraging thing is that Wainwright's batted-ball profile is solid. His exit velocity and hard-hit rate are in the 84th and 75th percentiles of baseball, respectively, and his 2.80 SIERA supports this.

Wainwright presents a similar profile to Greinke in that he doesn't strike out a ton of hitters and relies on contact. As such, his fantasy value hinges on avoiding hard contact, which he has done. The strikeouts are a nice bonus, but shouldn't be expected. Wainwright's SwStr% rate, while low overall, is not that different from his career value. So, while he may not be the flashiest fantasy pitcher at this point in his career, he still profiles as a solid, middle-to-back-of-the-rotation option with the skills he has.

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