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RotoBaller's top PGA player props, best bets, and matchup picks for the 2026 WM Phoenix Open. Get commission-free odds and market edges with Novig golf picks.
The PGA Tour season continues to ramp up, as we head to Arizona this week for the very popular WM Phoenix Open! In this article, we'll take a look at some of the juicier matchup spots available at TPC Scottsdale for this event.
This week's picks will all be using the odds on the most unique and fastest-growing sports prediction sites -- Novig. If you're not familiar with the site, I'll explain how it works and provide some of my favorite wagers to place on Novig.
As always, make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your season-long, DFS, and betting needs. Now, here are some of my favorite PGA bets and props for the 2026 WM Phoenix Open.
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What is Novig?
Novig is one of the fastest-growing peer-to-peer sports prediction markets. On Novig, users trade directly with each other, without the "vig" typically associated with a sportsbook. The vig is the fee sportsbooks charge you to use their services. It's a hidden cost that can be found in the odds that are being offered on each side of a specific bet. When a book offers -110 odds on both sides of a bet, they're keeping close to 10% of every bettor's wager, regardless of whether you win or lose.
On Novig, users trade with each other on the outcomes of sporting events, similarly to the way that investors trade on the stock market. But instead of having to beat the books, you just have to win against other users -- there's no commission kept by the site.
Users can bet on most traditional sports markets, including moneyline bets, spreads, totals, tournament matchups, player props, parlays, and futures!
Novig operates with two virtual currencies. Novig coins can be wagered for fun and to test out strategies, while Novig cash can be wagered on all markets and then redeemed for real cash prizes.
Access to Novig is widespread; it's now accessible in 36 U.S. states.
How Does Novig Work?
Since users are not playing against the books, there is an opportunity to make more money per wager that you win, and users can usually find better values on bets (in terms of the prices being offered) than on traditional sportsbooks.
There are no oddsmakers; users dictate their own odds. You can either accept the odds that the market is offering or set your own odds.
If you set your own odds, another user has to accept them on the other side for the bet to be activated.
Users drive the market, not the sportsbook or oddsmakers!
PGA Tournament Matchup Picks
All odds are from Novig and were accurate/available as of 2/3/2026.
Chris Gotterup OVER Collin Morikawa (+101 at Novig)
One of the biggest matchup discrepancies on the board for me this week, as Gotterup actually profiles as around -110 vs. Morikawa in my WM Phoenix Open model.
The youthful bomber is one of the hottest golfers in the world, racking up two wins and three additional top-10 finishes over his last 10 starts, while Morikawa has posted just a lone top-10 result in his last 10 outings - with that result coming in June of last year.
Gotterup can likely be found at plus-odds at Novig due to his uninspiring track record at TPC Scottsdale - two missed cuts in two career starts - although Morikawa's history at the WM is similarly unimpressive. Gotterup's iron play has really come together since his most recent stop in Phoenix, while he's been +one of the longest and best overall drivers of the ball on the PGA Tour over the past year.
Brooks Koepka OVER Daniel Berger (+154 at Novig)
Despite the difference in name recognition and star-power, Koepka is rightfully playing the underdog role to Berger in this spot, as the five-time major champion works his way back into the groove of competition on the PGA Tour following a multi-year stint on the LIV circuit.
Man is it nice to have Brooks Koepka back.
What a shot from the cart path. pic.twitter.com/HmM2EQzbMi
— Fore Play (@ForePlayPod) January 31, 2026
Last week's T54 at the Farmers in his return to the Tour wasn't exactly an awe-inspiring performance from Koepka, though digging into the numbers reveals that he gained strokes OTT, APP, & ARG at Torrey Pines, but suffered one of his worst worst statistical putting weeks in recent memory by losing over two strokes on the greens.
Golf grinders know that putters can kick on relatively quickly, and I like Koepka's chances of maintaining a strong T2G presence on a TPC Scottsdale layout that's historically been one of his favorite Tour stops and on which he's won twice in his career.
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PGA Finishing Position Props
All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 2/3/2026
Sam Stevens WINNER (+8991 at Novig)
Stevens will be a popular longshot outright bet for the golf sharps this week. His number has already tumbled at FanDuel (+7500) and DraftKings (+7600) which makes his Novig odds even more enticing.
An up-and-comer who recorded a pair of runner-up finishes on the PGA Tour last season, Stevens comes in with two top-10 finishes in his last four starts and results of T31-or-better in all three of his outings this calendar year. That form can be traced to an uptick in his approach play - an area that will pay dividends at TPC Scottsdale.
The 29-year-old has been rock solid in two previous WM Phoenix Open starts, carding at par-or-lower in seven of his eight career rounds in this event.
Nick Taylor WINNER (+9900 at Novig)
This is by far the best number I can find around the industry on Taylor, who is all the way down at +5500 on FanDuel. The Canadian has proven himself to be a sneaky-prolific winner on the PGA Tour with five career victories under his belt.
Your 2024 WM Phoenix Open champion Nick Taylor! pic.twitter.com/RzxLBKWsfR
— WM Phoenix Open (@WMPhoenixOpen) February 12, 2024
One of those wins came at this TPC Scottsdale layout, where he outlasted the likes of Scottie Scheffler, Charley Hoffman, and Sam Burns in the 2024 WM Phoenix Open. It wasn't a fluke, as Taylor scored a runner-up finish in the 2023 edition and a T25 in last year's WMPO. Since 2020 he's +.59 SG vs. Expectation on this golf course.
In addition to the course history, Taylor comes in with two rock-solid finishes under his belt in his 2026 starts. He posted a T13 at the Sony Open and a T27 at the AmEx. Stretching back to last year, he's recorded nine top-25 finishes across his last 15 starts.
Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks
More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks
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