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PGA DFS Vegas Report - American Express

Spencer Aguiar digs into the Vegas golf betting lines to find the best PGA DFS sleepers for the American Express. His top under-the-radar DraftKings, FanDuel lineup picks are included.

Welcome back to the PGA DFS Vegas Report. Cameron Smith captured his first solo victory at the Sony Open, providing himself with a 1.18 million dollar payday and us with a 55/1 outright victor.

Smith's success in Hawaii is the 16th outright winner recommended to date and gets 2020 off to the blazing start that we can hopefully keep going at this week's American Express.

If you ever have any questions about a particular wager, player in the field or anything golf-related, be sure to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports.

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2020 American Express Open

For an in-depth breakdown of the top DraftKings and Fanduel plays, check out Joe Nicely's weekly Horse For The Course that highlights the best fits for the week's course.

 

PGA West TPC Stadium Course

7,200 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Bermuda

There is an interesting DFS angle to be had for the American Express this week. Players will rotate between La Quinta Country Club, the PGA West Tournament Course and the PGA West Stadium Course over the first three days. On the final day, the top-65 golfers (including ties) will head over to the Stadium Course one last time to conclude the festivities.

Rotational venues do make handicapping difficult because not only do we not have shot tracking capabilities at two of the properties, but we also get an extra day of golf for every player in the field. That allows the mentality of taking a more aggressive approach since we know we are guaranteed three rounds with every player that doesn't withdraw early, and it sometimes can lead to a stars-and-scrubs strategy being advantageous.

The TPC Stadium Course is the hardest of the three properties by nearly two strokes. Water comes into play on nine of the holes, and there is extensive bunkering throughout that makes it vital to either hit the fairway or clear the sand traps with distance. The winner of the event has not finished worse than 20-under par since 2007, so birdies and scoring opportunities will be vital if you want your picks to compete for the title.

 

American Express

#1 - Abraham Ancer - 50/1

DraftKings Price $8,900 / FanDuel Price $10,200

Projected DraftKings Ownership Percentage - 10.7%

There's a lot to decipher this week for the American Express. Split rotations, amateur playing partners and a lack of shot tracking would be the most notable culprits, but we have also been given a betting board that mimics the who's who of players that can't seem to win on tour. Rickie Fowler, Sungjae Im, Paul Casey, Tony Finau, Byeong Hun An and Charles Howell III make up the top six options in terms of odds, and it's a territory that I'm going to bypass when starting my card because of the lack of win equity presented. That doesn't mean that I can't make a logical case for a few of these selections, most notably Casey and Hun An, but I'd prefer not to chase after decreased win probability.

As we traverse down the board, there are a few choices that mathematically are closer than you may think. Scottie Scheffler at 28/1 is about one percent off from where I have him being correctly priced, and even an unproven commodity such as Jason Kokrak is getting overweighted in my model. If Scheffler wins this weekend, it will have to come without me, but the lack of winning upside with all 156 players puts golfers back into play that I usually wouldn't target.

Similar to the Sony Open, the first player to show up as a positive EV wager for me was Abraham Ancer - an option who scorned us along the way last weekend in Hawaii. It does worry me slightly that his poor form could continue in California, but gambling is about letting bygones be bygones.

Looking back on it, the difficult conditions in Hawaii were not conducive to his game, and I believe the PGA West Stadium Course is a better fit for him to find success. The 39th-ranked golfer in the world has shown the propensity to play well in the wind, but I may have underestimated just how difficult the venue would play over the four rounds, which not only hurt his scoring chances but may have frustrated him along the way.

I had Ancer priced at 33/1 to win at a much more challenging field in Waialae, and there really isn't a reason we should see that price get any worse in a watered-down American Express. Ancer makes for an interesting off-the-radar selection in OAD contests this week and is one of the best values on the board in GPP and outright markets.

 

#2 - Jason Kokrak - 45/1

DraftKings Price $9,100 / FanDuel Price $10,300

Projected DraftKings Ownership Percentage - 13.0%

If you follow my articles weekly, this may come as a shock to your senses. Jason Kokrak is FAR from my prototypical selection, as he does just about everything contrary to what I advocate looking for weekly. He has demonstrated no winning upside, which has been shown from his inability to capture a title on tour since becoming a full-time pro in 2012, and it comes at the cost of us paying a rather large premium to back him at his 45/1 outright price.

While all that remains true as traps to avoid falling into, I absolutely love the way Kokrak's game fits in California. We have seen two of the past three winners at this event bludgeon the ball off the tee, and the American should be able to take advantage of the short par-fives with his length. The 34-year-old has provided two straight top-18 finishes at the PGA West Stadium Course and has shot under par in all eight rounds.

When attaching an 80 percent weight to 2019 statistics and 20% to this year, Kokrak ranks eighth in strokes gained off the tee and ninth in strokes gained approach. The most significant selling point for most is how any style can find a path to victory at this venue, and you aren't going to find many players that can provide such an array of talent with multiple facets of his game. I think the stigma around Kokrak not being able to win on tour ends in 2020, and it very well might come this weekend.

 

#3 - Lucas Glover - 60/1

DraftKings Price $8,200 / FanDuel Price $9,700

Projected DraftKings Ownership Percentage - 9.7%

Sometimes how heralded a player is for an event has a direct correlation with where they are priced compared to other popular choices on the DraftKings slate. I realize this stretches deeper than that since Lucas Glover hasn't won an event since 2011, but it didn't help his cause that he got priced around Brian Harman, Russell Knox and Vaughn Taylor.

Glover does fall into the classification that I'd prefer to avoid when making outright picks, which is a low-variance selection that fails to provide the amount of upside needed to meet his price, but there are moments as a gambler where you have to trust your math and avoid preconceived notions.

Glover's 9.7% ownership projection on DraftKings makes him a solid pivot option off of Knox and Taylor, and his outright win equity of 1.6% by the books is shallow for where I have it forecasted. Would it be safer to play him as a top-20 bet? Sure. And I wouldn't talk you out of taking that route also. But I am happy to grab him at a price that feels as if all the negative hoopla around him is getting overly baked into his going rate.

 

#4 - Andrew Putnam - 66/1

DraftKings Price $7,800 / FanDuel Price $9,600

Projected DraftKings Ownership Percentage - 6.5%

Poor weekend rounds at the Sony Open has helped to hide the fact that Andrew Putnam flirted with the top of the leaderboard for the opening two days. Many golf fans will not be aware of that if they just look at his share of 57th place finish, but the 51st-ranked player in the world should be taken seriously as a contender for the rotational venue.

Putnam's 14 straight made cuts place him fourth on the current leaderboard, and his collection of recent robust results have come during a plethora of different events. The narrative can sometimes become boring when we see a golfer steadily going about their business in a similar fashion, but Putnam's recent run isn't something to be ignored.

You could make a case that his history of performing better on challenging tracks takes him out of the equation here, but his lack of strength off the tee works better when you have broad fairways and big greens. That is what all three tracks give us this weekend, and it won't take much improvement with his driver to place him into contention.

 

#5 - Bud Cauley - 110/1

DraftKings Price $7,300 / FanDuel Price $8,7000

Projected DraftKings Ownership Percentage - 8.9%

It doesn't take much statistical convincing for me to make an argument for Bud Cauley during most weeks. Cauley's accolades are endless and demonstrate a golfer that should have achieved more success than he has at this point in his career. Whether you want to point to him being the former number-one ranked junior in the world or a three-time First-Team All-American during his three years at Alabama, you can start to gain the sense that the now 29-year-old should have more than a career-high ranking of 53rd.

It is difficult to tell why it has taken Cauley as long as he has to put the pieces together. You can place some of the blame on his car accident in 2018 that broke five of his ribs, collapsed his lung and fractured his lower leg, but Cauley was struggling to find consistency even before that moment.

There is no guarantee that talented players such as Cauley ever quite figure it out in their careers if it doesn't click immediately, but 110/1 is an astronomical price for a golfer that has secured three top-14 results here since 2016. To me, Cauley is perhaps the best value on the board when it comes to mispricing, and I can make a strong argument for him as a selection that should be closer to 70/1 in this field.

 

#6 - Bronson Burgoon - 200/1

DraftKings Price $6,800 / FanDuel Price $8,000

Projected DraftKings Ownership Percentage - 7.5%

One of the biggest misconceptions that I see weekly is the idea that volatility is a negative component. Sure, it affects you when you are dealing with head-to-head plays or cash-game options, but a boom-or-bust nature is what we should be striving to pinpoint in the outright or GPP markets.

Many will look at Burgoon's stretch of missing 10 of 12 cuts last season and instantly take him off their board of consideration, but I'd much prefer someone with a more extensive range of outcomes than your cut-makers that provide minimal winning potential.

There is an argument to be made that the three venues don't reward his off the tee prowess the way that some facilities would, but the 32-year-old is more of a complete player than his results would lead you to believe. Burgoon has earned a minuscule total of strokes with both his driver, irons and putter over his previous 75 tournaments, and it just takes him being able to put it all together for four days.

 

Key Stats

  • Birdie or Better 22.5%
  • Strokes Gained Approach 20.0%
  • Par-Five Birdie or Better 17.5%
  • Proximity From 100-175 Yards Yards 16%
  • Par-Three Average 14%
  • Strokes Gained Off the Tee 10%
  • 50% Stats/30% Form/20% Course History
  • (I do believe 50/30/20 is more of a cash-game approach this week. Tournament history is tough to gauge with the rotational setup, and I wouldn't mind going a more aggressive 70/30 type of approach.

 

Head-to-Head Play of the Week

We beat the closing line last week by over 50 points but still failed to win when J.T. Poston missed the cut. I will be taking this week off from my lengthy premium selection write-ups in this article, but you can find some of my head-to-head choices that caught my eye here, including the play I will be using as my play of the week.

 

2020 Head-to-Head Record (4-2-1)

+1.85 Units Year-To-Date From H2H Bets

Tournament

Head-to-Head Bet

Bet

My Picks Finish

Opponent Finish

Result

Total

Sanderson Farms

Denny McCarthy -110 over Martin Laird

1.10 Units to Win 1.00

T18 (-11)

MC (+4)

Win

1.00

Safeway Open

Cameron Percy -110 over Danny Lee

1.10 Units to Win 1.00

T7 (-12)

MC (+2)

Win

1.00

Shriners Open

Bud Cauley -115 over Phil Mickelson

1.15 Units to Win 1.00

MC (-1)

61 (-9)

Loss

-1.15

Houston Open

Jhonattan Vegas +100 over Aaron Baddeley

1.12 Units to Win 1.12

MC (+3)

MC (+3)

Push

0

Mayakoba Classic

Denny McCarthy +110 over Kevin Kisner

1.00 Units to Win 1.10

T48 (-5)

T76 (+1)

Win

1.10

RSM Classic

Brian Stuard -105 over Chris Kirk -115

1.05 Units to Win 1.00

T10 (-13)

MC (-3)

Win

1.00

Sony Open

J.T. Poston -110 over Brendan Todd -110

1.10 Units to Win 1.00

MC (+3)

T21 (-5)

Loss

-1.10


2020 Outright Bets That Have Finished Inside the Top-10

Player

Event

Odds

Finish Position

Cameron Smith

Sony Open

55

1

Joaquin Niemann

Sentry TOC

50

5

Dustin Johnson

Sentry TOC

10

7

Xander Schauffele

ZOZO Championship

25

10

 

Career Record

2017 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (10-2-2) +8.175 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)

2018 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets
(46-24-2) +24.49 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)

2019 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets
(16-9-2) +8.33 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open  (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)

 

Career Record (Excluding 2020 Season Results)

Head to Head Bets (72-35-6) +40.995 Units
Outright Winners (15)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41

Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks

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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Nolan Arenado

Ready for Second Half
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Back in Action to Begin Second Half
Yordan Alvarez

Resumes Swinging -- Return Imminent?
Jake Burger

to Miss an Additional 2-3 Weeks
TreVeyon Henderson

Signs Rookie Contract
Christian Watson

Goes on PUP List
Austin Riley

Hopes to be Activated Next Week
Ketel Marte

Lands on Restricted List After Burglary
Ricky Pearsall

Heads to PUP List
Brandon Aiyuk

Placed on PUP List
Luther Burden III

Signs Rookie Deal
Washington Nationals

Eli Willits Expected to Sign Contract on Saturday
Grayson Rodriguez

Being Shut Down Again - Will We See Him Again This Year?
Ezequiel Tovar

Activated and Back in Lineup on Friday
Max Fried

"Hopeful" to Pitch Next Week - Looks Like He'll Avoid IL Stint
Steven Kwan

Receives Injection in Wrist, Considered Day-to-Day
CJ Abrams

Back to Start Second Half
Alec Bohm

Back From Rib Injury on Friday
Trey Hendrickson

Holdout to Spill into Regular Season?
Jalen McMillan

Bucs Offensive Coordinator Not Forgetting About Jalen McMillan
Levi Onwuzurike

to Miss at Least Four Games
Nick Emmanwori

Seahawks, Nick Emmanwori Reach Agreement on Rookie Deal
Max Holloway

Set For Main Event
Brandon Lowe

Back From 10-Day Injured List
Dustin Poirier

Set For His Final UFC Fight
Roman Kopylov

Set For Co-Main Event
Paulo Costa

Returns At UFC 318
Luis L. Ortiz

to Remain on Leave for Another Month - Will he Pitch Again?
Daniel Rodriguez

Looks For Third Win In A Row
Kevin Holland

Set For His Fourth Fight This Year
Dan Ige

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
MMA

Patricio Freire Set For His Second UFC Fight
Daniel Zellhuber

Set To Open Up UFC 318 Main Card
Michael Johnson

Looks For Third Consecutive Win
Elijah Arroyo

Signs Rookie Deal
Jaydon Blue

Described as "Borderline Lazy"
T.J. Sanders

Bills Sign T.J. Sanders to Rookie Deal
Christian Wilkins

Raiders Put Christian Wilkins on PUP List
Jabari Small

Lions Add Jabari Small to Backfield
Quinshon Judkins

Remains Unsigned, Won't Report With Rest of Rookies
Mason Taylor

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Jets
Hendon Hooker

Leading Lions QB2 Battle Entering Training Camp
Ozzy Trapilo

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Bears
Tate Ratledge

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Lions
Jack Bech

Signs Rookie Contract with Raiders
Yegor Chinakhov

Requests Trade
Dakota Joshua

Maple Leafs Acquire Dakota Joshua
Lukas Dostal

Signs Five-Year Extension with Ducks
Shemar Stewart

Not Practicing With College Team
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Expected Back Friday
Damian Lillard

Returning to Portland
Paul Skenes

Pirates Could Preserve Paul Skenes in Second Half
Brooks Barnhizer

Grabs 19 Points, Nine Boards in Summer League Win
Jeremiah Fears

Scores 22 Points in Summer League Loss to Thunder
Isaiah Collier

Collects 17 Points In Summer League Win
Caleb Houstan

Joins Hawks
AJ Johnson

Erupts for 25 Points in Summer League Loss
Washington Wizards

Leaky Black Logs Double-Double in Loss to Jazz
Connor Norby

Undergoes Surgery, Expected to Miss 6-8 Weeks
Trey Alexander

Tallies 25 Points in Losing Effort
Johni Broome

Records Second Consecutive Double-Double
Jahmir Young

Has Historic Summer League Outing
Rob Dillingham

Plays Big Role in Wednesday's Win
Tyrese Proctor

Erupts for 35 Points Against Kings
Cody Williams

Leads Jazz to Victory Against Wizards
LeBron James

Mavs Not Interested in "Gutting its Roster" For LeBron James
Josh Hart

Undergoes a Procedure on Right Finger
Jake Burger

Goes on 10-Day Injured List With Quad Strain
Sal Frelick

Dealing With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain, TBD for Start of Second Half
Chris Sale

Plays Catch
Los Angeles Clippers

Bradley Beal Heading to Los Angeles to Join Clippers After Contract Buyout
Rayan Rupert

Scores 24 Points in Summer League Win
Derik Queen

Collects Third Consecutive Double-Double in Summer League Loss
GG Jackson II

Records 13 Points in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Johni Broome

Logs Double-Double Against Wizards
DaRon Holmes II

Records Double-Double in Summer League Loss to Raptors
Harris English

Takes Stellar 2025 Performance to The Open Championship
Aldrich Potgieter

Seeks Better Result in Northern Ireland
Cameron Young

Likely to Hang Around at The Open Championship
Cameron Smith

Just Trying to Make the Cut at Royal Portrush
Jordan Spieth

Is Jordan Spieth Still a Natural for Links Style Golf?
Patrick Reed

a Viable Option at The Open Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Wants to Rebound from Last Experience at Royal Portrush
Xander Schauffele

Looks to Defend His Claret Jug at Royal Portrush
Tony Finau

Trying to Turn Tide at Royal Portrush
Daniel Brown

Seeks a Rebound at The Open Championship
Rory McIlroy

Will be the Most Watched Player This Week at Royal Portrush
Daniel Berger

Trending Poorly as The Open Championship Looms
Robert MacIntyre

Hoping to Bounce Back at Open Championship
Shane Lowry

Hopes to Repeat at Royal Portrush
Brian Harman

Hopes to Rekindle Some Magic at the 153rd Open
UTA

Michael Carcone Returns to Utah on One-Year Contract
Bowen Byram

Signs Two-Year Deal with Sabres
Morgan Barron

Jets Re-Sign Morgan Barron for Two Years
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma