RADIO
Russell Knox won his first PGA Tournament, the WGC- HSBC Champions, by two strokes at 20-under. My picks were mostly good; Casey -10, Garcia -14, Oosthuizen -5, Wood -3, Lee even par, and Olesen -11. This week the PGA Tour heads to Playa del Carmen, Mexico to partake in the OHL Classic at Mayakoba at El Camaleon GC. The field this week is lacking top-level players. There is also a cut.
There are not many notable players, but Matt Kuchar, Graeme McDowell, Keegan Bradley, and Jason Dufner. With the lack of top-level players, I have a feeling this tournament can be won by an unknown. Taking a flier with a random player can really pay dividends at this tournament. Last year, Charley Hoffman won at 17-under edging out Shawn Stefani, 16- under, and Danny Lee and Andres Gonzales, both finishing at 15- under.
The course is a par 71 and features 11 par 4's, four par 3's, and three par 5's. The longest par 4 is the 16th, 485 yards. Forecasts calls for bad weather including rain all weekend.
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Stats To Look At
Greens in Regulation- I know what you're thinking, "One of the most common stats being used yet again." But on this course, GIR will be vastly important. From the pictures of the greens, they are large. Golfers should not be missing greens in regulation at this course. Last year's winner, Hoffman, was 4th in GIR last year.
Driving Distance- Last year Hoffman ranked 5th in driving distance.
Par 4 Scoring- Above-average par 4 players this week will be valued with the 11 par 4's the course has.
The Lineup
Jason Bohn ($10,300)
Bohn has a great history at this tournament,with back-t0-back top 10 finishes. After his subpar performance last week, T39th at Sanderson Farms, I expect his own age percentage to be lower. Before last week, he finished T3 at the Frys and T2 at the Shriners. On top of that, Bohn is T18 in GIR, and T14 in Par 4 scoring. Bohn will make it three consecutive top 10 finishes at this tournament.
Charley Hoffman ($10,100)
Hoffman was cut at the Shriners Open, but comes back to a course where he has confidence. Defending champions play fairly well in this tournament. His stats are not so good, but I feel confident in a player that won this tournament last year.
Jhonattan Vegas ($8,800)
Vegas is off to a great start, two top 10's in a in three tournaments with no missed cuts. He is 29th in GIR and 44th in driving distance. Vegas's best finish was T19th back in 2011. I like Vegas to continue his hot streak and to contend on Sunday.
Carlos Ortiz ($7,500)
Ortiz finished T9 here last year, his only top 10 finish in his career. He will be low owned, as he finished outside the top 30 in the Frys and CIMB Classic. His stats aren't worth showing, but he is playing in his home country and he should have confidence from his Top 10 last season. I like Ortiz as a sleeper this week.
Jerry Kelly ($7,000)
Two top finishes at this tournament, including a 5th place finish last year. He is very accustomed to this course, as he has played since tournament every year since 2009. His stats and recent performance is down, but a return to Mexico for Kelly could mean good things.
Michael Thompson ($6,300)
He is 3 for 3 in cuts made this season. Each week he keeps playing better, did not finish at the Frys, T50 at Shriners, and T20 at Sanderson Farms. Thompson scored 87 fantasy points last week, a great amount for a player with his price. He is T63 in GIR, but if he makes the cut, he will bring great salary relief.
