X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

PGA Course Preview for the 2025 PLAYERS Championship: Scouting the Routing

We've already crowned both Tiger Woods' annual champion at the Genesis and Arnold Palmer's at Bay Hill, but perhaps no other event on the PGA Tour comes with the cache of the PLAYERS.

From Hal Sutton's memorable approach on 18 to take down Tiger, to Rickie Fowler's Sunday charge and Wyndham's heartbreaking lip-out last year, it's difficult to find any course on Tour with a more iconic set of highlights or a layout better designed to produce drama.

Before we get into the illustrious odds board on tap for golf bettors Monday morning, this piece will serve to break down every key trend and statistic I'm weighing to project a player's viability in the outright market and set you up to make the crucial decisions necessary before the market shifts later in the week. Without further ado, here is my comprehensive scouting report on TPC Sawgrass and the 2024 PLAYERS Championship!

Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 50% off using code SUMMER. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!

 

The Golf Course

TPC Sawgrass - Par 72; 7,121 yards

Past Champions

  • 2024 - Scottie Scheffler (-20) over X. Schauffele/B. Harman/W. Clark
  • 2023 - Scottie Scheffler (-17) over Tyrell Hatton
  • 2022 - Cameron Smith (-13) over Anirban Lahiri
  • 2021 - Justin Thoams (-14) over Lee Westwood
  • 2019 - Rory McIlroy (-16) over Jim Furyk
  • 2018 - Webb Simpson (-18) over Schauffele/Schwartzel/J. Walker

TPC Sawgrass by the Numbers (Off-The-Tee):

  • Average Fairway Width -- 30.7 yards; 10th-narrowest on the PGA Tour
  • Average Driving Distance -- 280.8 yards; seventh-lowest on tour
  • Driving Accuracy -- 60.0%; 16th-lowest on tour
  • Missed Fairway Penalty -- 0.43; third-highest on tour
  • Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee Difficulty: (-0.044); third-toughest on tour

No disrespect to Whistling Straits and Kiawah Island, but when I think of Pete Dye, I’m not exactly thinking of a 7500-yard, wide-open pasture where bombers like Jason Day, Bryson DeChambeau, and a 50-year-old Phil Mickelson can put on the type of airshows that are typically reserved for the after-hours at the back of a driving range.

Instead, my mind turns to an old-school, positional brand of golf; where thoughtless aggression is acutely punished, and tight doglegs and tricky angles force even the most skilled contestants to play by the designer’s rules. There is perhaps no better example of Dye’s overarching philosophy than TPC Sawgrass: an eclectic mix of double-doglegs, expansive bunkering, and vertical wooden bulkheads that meanders 7200 yards through the North Florida treeline.

Unlike last week at Bay Hill, TPC Sawgrass will give players ample opportunities to club down for position around this iconic layout. Five of the ten par fours here in Ponte Vedra measure under 425 yards, and even a couple of the par fives (2 and 16), will still be reachable to those who take the safer line with a shorter club off of the tee.

There is good reason for players to remain cautious this week, as very few venues on Tour put as much emphasis on keeping the ball in play. The average missed fairway around TPC Sawgrass will set you back over four-tenths of a stroke, and historically, nearly 6% of those misses have resulted in a trip to the drop zone.

As a result, the optimal driving profile we discuss at many marquee events (Bay Hill, Muirfield Village, Riviera, etc.), shifts drastically this week at the PLAYERS Championship. Looking back over the last five seasons, you'll see names like Brian Harman, Seamus Power, Tom Kim, and Charles Howell III continually find their way to the tops of the Driving leaderboards -- notably all names who tend to do most of their annual damage on similarly short, positional courses.

With a past champions list that includes the likes of Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Justin Thomas all within the past four years, this talk of positional driving isn't meant to entirely preclude the bombers that routinely populate the SG: OTT leaderboards. However, keeping the ball in play remains priority one when assessing a player's off-the-tee prospects.

Scheffler and JT both finished well inside the top half of the field in driving accuracy, whilst Rory came into the week on one of the best off-the-tee runs of his career (rating over 5% above the field fairway average in each of his previous three starts). Obviously, elite all-around drivers of the ball will still receive a sizable boost to their overall profile, but those who rely exclusively on distance to succeed on Tour could be in for a rude awakening around Sawgrass's claustrophobic, highly penal corridors.

 

TPC Sawgrass by the Numbers (Approach):

  • Green in Regulation Rate -- 62.8%; 16th-lowest on the PGA Tour
  • Strokes Gained: Approach Difficulty: (-0.046); fourth-toughest on tour
  • Key Proximity Ranges:
    • 125-150 yards (accounts for 18.9% of historical approach shots)
    • 175-200 yards (16.7%)
    • 150-175 yards (15.6%)

Moving onto iron play, we can be more general in our data sets. Unlike Bay Hill last week, Sawgrass features a fairly balanced proximity distribution, as no 25-yard approach range has historically crested the 20% mark of shots hit. As a result, I’ll rely more on basic iron metrics like SG: Approach and Opportunities Gained than the specialized proximity distributions I've discussed in past weeks.

This isn't to say iron play is any less important at TPC Sawgrass, however, as top five finishers here have gained a whopping 41% of their total strokes on approach. You'd be hard-pressed to find a more skewed distribution anywhere else on tour, making elite iron play far and away the number one separator to look at when assessing player viability.

Since 2019, winners here at the PLAYERS have ranked as the fourth, fifth, fifth, sixth, and seventh-best iron players for the week via Strokes Gained. Each of them had also recorded at least one top-3 finish over the first two months of the season and carried an extended run of form with their approach play coming in.

Given the highly penal nature of its routing and the historic proclivity for 90, 100, and even 500-1 long shots to find the winner's circle here, variance has long been the calling card of the PLAYERS Championship. However, with four straight winners coming in under 30-1 on the closing line, recent history has told us that the winner this week will not be sneaking up on anybody. Recent results on the PGA Tour give life to the longshots this week, but I won't be interested in anyone who hasn't shown at least a hint of an elite ball-striking ceiling.

TPC Sawgrass by the Numbers (Around the Greens):

  • Scrambling Percentage -- 53.9%; 3.6% below Tour Average 
  • Sand Save Difficulty -- (-0.039); sixth-toughest on tour
  • SG: Around the Green Difficulty: (-0.033); seventh-toughest on tour

With Green in Regulation rates sitting much closer to Tour Average than the other two marquee events we've seen in the last month, it's hard to make a compelling case in favor of short game as nearly the same differentiating factor as we saw at Bay Hill or Riviera. The green complexes here at Sawgrass are far from the largest on Tour, but the receptiveness of the turf and an increased fraction of wedges/short irons we project make these complexes much more manageable than the concrete slabs players were looking at last week with long irons in hand.

In fact, we've routinely seen some of the more gifted ball-strikers in recent PLAYERS history have no problem cresting the 70% mark for the week in greens hit in regulation, and only 47% of top-10 finishers since 2019 have gained more than 1.5 strokes around the greens that week.

An elite short game should never be entirely discounted, but recent history at Sawgrass has shown us that a passable short game is all that's required to contend around TPC Sawgrass. I'll be placing a below-average weight on scrambling stats as a whole and, more so, looking to filter out players who have a severe deficiency in this particular area. These chipping areas do play as some of the more difficult on the PGA Tour, and will have no problem exposing those without the requisite around the green skill.

TPC Sawgrass by the Numbers (Putting):

  • Average Green Size: 5,500 sq. feet
  • Agronomy -- TifEagle Bermudagrass w/ Poa Trivialis overseed
  • 3-Putt Percentage: 3.5% (0.5% above Tour Average)
  • Strokes Gained: Putting Difficulty: (-0.006); ninth-toughest on tour

One potential pitfall to be aware of when looking back at long-term trends here at TPC Sawgrass is the shift this tournament saw in 2019 from its traditional spot on Mother's Day weekend to the middle of March. Not only have the softer conditions made Sawgrass play quite a bit longer than it had in previous iterations, but the two-month leap forward also saw the departure of pure bermudagrass greens.

Over the last four PLAYERS Championships (and this week as well), we've seen overseeded green surfaces more akin to a TPC Scottsdale, PGA West, or Innisbrook than the granular Bermuda we typically associate with the Southeast.

Coincidentally, in that time, three of the last four PLAYERS Champions have managed to capture this title whilst gaining less than two strokes for the week on the greens, but historically, putting has been the second most predictive metric to account for when projecting the top five/10/20 finishers in Ponte Vedra.

Unless a player possesses a truly world-class ceiling with their ball-striking (Scottie Scheffler), it's hard to imagine anyone conquering this caliber of field without at least a bit of help with their flat-stick -- just be careful of leaning too heavily on more general Bermudagrass splits in the search for correlative past putting performances.

Key Stats Roundup:

  • It's a big week for Positional Driving stats like Fairways Gained, Good Drive Percentage, and Driving Accuracy, and players who excel in any of those three metrics will receive a bump in my modeling. However, I'll be primarily looking at players with a historic proclivity to raise their driving baselines around similarly positional setups (Colonial, Harbour Town, Sedgefield, Innisbrook, etc.). These corollary tracks (along with historic driving splits around Sawgrass) are the best indicators we have for a player's off-the-tee viability around this sort of venue.
  • Iron play receives one of the highest weights a metric will ever have in my modeling, as it has historically dominated the other two tee-to-green metrics in predictiveness around TPC Sawgrass. SG: APP and Birdie Chances Created are the main metrics I'll be using, but I will also look to GIR rates and Poor Shot Avoidance. An elite iron ceiling is almost a prerequisite for a spot on my betting card.
  • Because of the historic spike we've seen in GIR percentages we see at Sawgrass (at least as opposed to the last two marquee stops on Tour: Bay Hill and Riviera), I won't be weighing scrambling/around the green play nearly as heavily as I have in recent Signature Events. An elite short game is certainly a bonus, but I'm more concerned with filtering out those with no recent life around the greens. Simply serviceable has proven to be more than good enough to find success around Sawgrass's green complexes.
  • Unlike the last two weeks in Florida, Sawgrass's overseeded greens are much more comparable to the desert courses we saw in Palm Springs/Scottsdale earlier this season than your traditional pure Southeastern Bermudagrass. Innisbrook is another course that will feature similar agronomy on its greens, and historic PLAYERS putting splits are relevant (at least going back to 2019). Be careful when filtering for results past this tournament's move to March and other, grainier Bermuda complexes on the schedule.

 

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Ian by using the discount code BALLER when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.

  Win More With RotoBaller

Win more with expert tools and advice from proven winners! RotoBaller's PGA Premium Packages feature several savvy analysts and proven winners for DFS and betting.

Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS and Betting content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win more.

Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks


More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks

POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Alex Bregman

has "Really Good Chance" to Return Before All-Star Break
Christian Kirk

the No. 2 WR in Houston?
Teoscar Hernández

Teoscar Hernandez Expected to Return on Friday
Jerome Ford

the Likely Starter for Cleveland to Begin 2025
Chig Okonkwo

"Poised" for Best Season of Career
Xavier Watts

Falcons High on Xavier Watts
Xavier Restrepo

Training With Star Wideouts
Walter Clayton Jr.

Leads Jazz to Summer League Win
Carter Bryant

Struggles in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Drops a Double-Double in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Oklahoma City Thunder

Malevy Leons Logs Impressive Summer League Outing on Tuesday
Dalton Knecht

Collects 25 Points in Lakers Summer League Win
Los Angeles Lakers

Darius Bazley Drops 27 Points in Summer League on Tuesday
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

a Safe Option at Scottish Open
Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Tristan Wirfs

Undergoes Knee Surgery, Likely to Miss Start of Season
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Chet Holmgren

Agrees to Rookie Max Extension
Alex Bregman

Not Returning Wednesday
Jhoan Duran

Unavailable Due to Illness
Shane McClanahan

Tosses Clean Frame in First Rehab Appearance
Jacob Wilson

Day-to-Day After HBP
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. to be Reassessed Wednesday
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Malaki Branham

Traded to Washington
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Blake Wesley

Moves to Washington
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

Primed for the Genesis Scottish Open
Kelly Olynyk

on the Move Again
Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Anthony Davis

Recovering From Eye Surgery
Jacob Bridgeman

Needs Putter to Work at Genesis Scottish Open
Nikola Jokić

Nikola Jokic to Delay Extension Talks Until 2026
Cal Raleigh

Continues Historic Homer Pace Tuesday
Jacob Wilson

Exits Early On Tuesday With Left Hand Contusion
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
NASCAR

Sepp Straka Not Likely to Find Momentum at Scottish Open
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
Laken Tomlinson

Confident in Texans Offensive Line
J.K. Dobbins

the Starter in Denver?
JT Woods

Seahawks Release JT Woods
Darren Waller

Trade to Miami Becomes Official
Asante Samuel Jr.

Dolphins Interested in Asante Samuel Jr.
Nyheim Hines

Seeking Return to NFL
Dak Prescott

Expects to be Full-Go for Training Camp
Ajay Mitchell

Posts 16 Points in Summer League Win on Monday
Milwaukee Bucks

Vasilije Micic Waived by Bucks
Brice Sensabaugh

Logs 37 points in Summer League Win on Monday
Luis Garcia

Fans Four in Rehab Outing
GG Jackson II

Collects 27 Points in Summer League Loss
Ace Bailey

Scores 18 Points in Summer League Victory
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Kobe Bufkin

Cleared for Summer League Action
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Milwaukee Bucks

Vasilije Micic Agrees to Contract Buyout with Bucks
James Wiseman

Pacers Bring Back James Wiseman
Tyrese Haliburton

to Miss Entire 2025-26 Campaign
Anthony Santander

Hoping to Hit Soon
Luis Robert Jr.

Returning in Short Order
Alex Bregman

Could Return Later This Week
Ketel Marte

Day-to-Day with Groin Tightness
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
Hunter Greene

Suffers Setback on Monday
T.J. Watt

Pittsburgh Still Not Close on New Contract
Terry McLaurin

Still Not Pleased with Contract Situation
Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Yu Darvish

to Make Season Debut on Monday
MLB

Nationals Fire Dave Martinez, Mike Rizzo
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
KaVontae Turpin

Arrested on Two Charges
Cole Ragans

to Begin Throwing on Monday
Theo Johnson

Prioritizing his Health this Offseason
Andrés Giménez

Andres Gimenez Hits 10-Day Injured List
Jermaine Burton

Continues to Show Growth
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
Cam Ward

"Not Expecting" to be handed Starting Job
Chase Claypool

Eager to Get Back on the Field
Wyatt Langford

Activated, Playing on Saturday
LaJohntay Wester

Stands out on Special Teams
Clarke Schmidt

Likely to Undergo Tommy John Surgery
ARI

Christian Fischer Retires From NHL at 28
NHL

Spencer Martin Moves to Russia
WAS

Anthony Beauvillier Re-Signs With Capitals for Two Years