PGA Betting Advice - Farmers Insurance Open

January 27, 2021

Spencer Aguiar digs into the Vegas betting lines to find some of his best under-the-radar plays for the Farmers Insurance Open

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the arrival of our new column that will cover head-to-head plays for each PGA Tour stop. If you are looking for a more in-depth breakdown, be sure to also check out my weekly PGA DFS: Vegas Report. There you will find my complete betting card, as well as my head-to-head play of the week.

My premium head-to-head selections have gone an impressive (77-43-8), netting over 41 units of profit and over a 64% success rate. On top of that, my outright wagers have yielded 20 winners since the inception of the article - including a 200/1 outright victor at the Valero Texas Open last season and five so far in 2020, making it a must-read for gambling enthusiasts. If you would like to receive a discount on your order, be sure to use my checkout code TEEOFF.

In this feature, I will present a handful of head-to-head wagers that just missed out on being my best bet of the week for my Vegas Report article. If you have any questions, feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

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There you will find a plethora of information, including course history, current form and statistical data. If you would like to change any of the weights entered onto the spreadsheet, make a copy of your own under the file tab and get started on your research today!

Free Head-To-Head Selection 

Sungjae Im -110 over Brooks Koepka

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

Brooks Koepka has shown an ability to dominate at longer venues in the past, but I find it impossible to trust where his game is at entering the week. The course layout makes more sense for him than it does Sungjae Im, but I am at the point where I want to see the American beat me multiple times before letting my foot off the gas. This is something he hasn't been able to do recently, and the name-recognition has kept this number bettable.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

The line is all over the place within the market. I've seen it as low as -110 and as high as -125. I try to avoid selections that aren't widely available within the industry when posting them for my premium article and have given this a slight reduction because of the uncertainty of finding this number still out there at your sportsbook. I don't mind laying -1.5 strokes if the price has run away from you, but the optimal way I am playing it is as a true matchup wager.

1.10 Units to Win 1.00

Corey Conners +100 over Louis Oosthuizen

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

Opposing Louis Oosthuizen has some real risks attached to it - similar to how taking on Si Woo Kim did last weekend. Obviously, the latter did not work out with the South Korean spectacularly winning the American Express, but we are receiving a boosted rating on Oosthuizen because of his past success at challenging tracks. That is fine to an extent and shouldn't be entirely discounted, but the South African is one of a handful of golfers that comes to mind when discussing high ceilings and low floors. In my opinion, Oosthuizen is just as likely to be unprepared as he is ready to go, and his propensity for withdrawal should never be discredited. Conners has made nine of his previous 11 cuts, including six top-25 results over that time frame.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

Taking on Louis is the equivalent of flipping coins. I do have Conners as the perceived favorite in this battle and worthy of a shot at his +100 price tag, but I will not be shocked if I get burned by the 38-year-after getting a full night's rest in his bed. If I am taking a shot on Oosthuizen, I would rather do it in GPP contests, and I will use some of his erraticness to my advantage here in the head-to-head market.

1.00 Units to Win 1.00

Hideki Matsuyama -110 over Patrick Reed

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

If we remove Patrick's Reed recent run at Torrey Pines, there are a handful of red flags lurking. Despite being the 13th-ranked golfer in my model, the American grades out a paltry 41st statistically, which is shown by his inconsistency off the tee and low GIR percentage. I do expect that Reed is going to be able to use some of his short game prowess to make the cut, but the 5.7 shots he has lost with his irons over his first two starts of 2021 is dangerous at a venue like Torrey Pines

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

I really like Hideki Matsuyama this week, but what is new? Matsuyama's putting has become frustrating to track with the way he strikes his irons, and it has far too often left us in a spot where we just aren't getting the most out of these tournaments for the Japanese sensation. I believe we have a situation here where Reed is getting the full benefit of what he can be, whereas Matsuyama is getting overly reduced numerically because of what he has been with his flat stick. It might take us until Sunday to call a winner in this battle, but I ultimately think we see the American outside of the top-40 on the leaderboard.

1.10 Units to Win 1.00

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2021 Premium Head-to-Head Record (1-1-0)

- 0.31 Units Year-To-Date From Premium H2H Bets

Year-To-Date Free Head-To-Head Results

2-4-0 (-2.39 Units)

2021 Bets That Have Finished Inside The Top-10

Yearly Record:

2017 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (10-2-2) +8.025 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)
Overall Units Won (+54.255) 194.22% ROI

2018 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (37-18-2) +26.74 Units
Outright Winners (6)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Overall Units Won (+55.98) 51.80% ROI

2019 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (16-8-2) +8.48 Units
Outright Winners (4)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open  (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)
Overall Units Won (+27.743) 40.70% ROI

2020 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (13-14-2) -1.46 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Bryson DeChambeau U.S. Open (33/1)
Dustin Johnson Travelers Championship (30/1)
Sungjae Im Honda Classic (35/1)
Patrick Reed WGC-Mexico (50/1)
Cameron Smith Sony Open (55/1)
Overall Units Won (+37.015) 20.21% ROI

Career Record (Excluding 2021 Season Results)

Premium Head to Head Bets (76-42-8) +41.785 Units
Free Head to Head Bets (28-27-0) +3.90 Units
In-Tournament Head to Head Bets (37-25-6) +5.27 Units (Half-Unit Wagers)
Outright Winners (20)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
2020 - 19
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41
2020 - 41

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