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Ryan identifies three outfield fantasy baseball busts and avoids for 2025 drafts. His overvalued hitters to fade based on where they are being drafted in 2025.
This time of the fantasy baseball season, no one wants to talk about busts. It's spring training, and hope springs eternal for all teams, players, and fantasy baseball rosters. But the simple truth is that some players are not going to live up to their ADP from this month.
Injuries, inconsistencies, job changes, and plenty of other variables will contribute to some of today's most promising fantasy baseball players being on tomorrow's must-drop list for various positions. This piece will look at three outfielders who may not provide an adequate return on investment.
All ADP information is taken from the RotoBaller consensus page ahead of drafts this month. These players have largely been consistent in their draft slot but could see changes based on spring performance.
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Christian Yelich, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
ADP: 106.3
After two mostly productive and injury-free seasons in 2022 and 2023, the age cliff and injury variance caught up with Christian Yelich in 2024. He played just 73 games and, despite being extremely productive, had a lot of things break his way to accumulate the stats he did in 2024.
First, his .315/.406/.504 slash line came with a .366 BABIP and an HR/FB rate of 20 percent. According to Statcast, his expected batting average and expected slugging percentage were both at least 20 points lower than what he produced. His barrel rate and hard-hit rate were both down, likely due to the injuries.
Christian Yelich will play LF today for the first time since his back surgery, as the Brewers face the White Sox this afternoon. pic.twitter.com/aH3u1Y11cm
— Hunter Baumgardt (@hunterbonair) March 5, 2025
Yelich missed 90 games with back problems that eventually required surgery. We don't know if this is a chronic issue, but at age 33, I don't want to be the one managing that risk. He played the outfield on March 5 for the first time since his surgery and seems to be slow-played this spring training.
Around pick 106, there is too much opportunity cost for an old hitter with a potentially problematic back.
Luis Robert Jr., OF, Chicago White Sox
ADP: 88.8
In the movie "Office Space," Peter tells the consultants, "It's a problem of motivation, alright. Now, if I work my a-- off and Initech ships a few extra units, I don't see another dime. So where's the motivation?"
I think about that scene a lot when I think about Luis Robert Jr. and his 2025 season. Why should he feel like he has to do more when the White Sox are doing nothing around him to improve?
The White Sox are in the midst of a very long rebuild, but the prime for Robert is now. But the offense around him stinks. The pitching is abysmal. And the team environment is toxic. Robert may be able to put up numbers in a place like that, but eventually, it's going to come down to motivation.
Luis Robert Jr. sent that one OVER the bullpen 😱 pic.twitter.com/SxVxed9SIX
— Chicago White Sox (@whitesox) March 1, 2025
Last season, Robert was only able to play 100 games because of various ailments and injuries. He managed 14 home runs and 23 steals, but it was the fourth time in five seasons he played 100 or fewer games.
Last season, his average bottomed out at .224. He struck out 33 percent of the time. And his hard-hit rate was the lowest since his rookie season in 2020. There certainly is the potential for the tantalizing 2023 numbers in there (38 home runs, 20 steals), but I believe fantasy managers would need health and a change of scenery via trade to reach those numbers.
Randy Arozarena, OF, Seattle Mariners
ADP: 120.5
Sometimes, it is as simple as where you play your baseball games. Randy Arozarena was already struggling through the first 100 games of the season in 2024 with Tampa Bay, and then he was traded to the Seattle Mariners. Instead of revitalizing his offense amid a playoff run, his offense got much worse.
With the Rays, Arozarena hit 15 home runs in 100 games. With Seattle, he hit five. With the Rays, Arozarena stole 16 bases. With Seattle, it was four. His slugging percentage dropped more than 10 points, and his strikeout rate jumped from 24 percent to 28.5 percent.
Randy Arozarena
2020: .281 AVG, .641 SLG
2021: .274 AVG, .459 SLG
2022: .263 AVG, .445 SLG
2023: .254 AVG, .425 SLG
2024: .219 AVG, .388 SLGI’m fading Arozarena at a 122 ADP.
— Kirk Snyder (@dynastyinfo411) March 1, 2025
Arozarena has indeed been a 20/20 player for four straight seasons. That very well could continue in 2025 despite playing in the cavernous T-Mobile Park, but the surrounding numbers might not be pretty. Now over 30 years old, I am going to wait and let someone else take the Arozarena risk in case his skills don't fit his new ballpark.
Around that same part of the draft, give me the upside of Ezequiel Tovar or Bo Bichette, who are both significantly younger and in better offensive environments.
Popular Player Comparison Searches - Who To Draft?
If you're avoiding these players in drafts, you can find other options instead. Below are some popular preseason searches and comparisons from our Who To Draft tool for Randy Arozarena, Christian Yelich, Luis Robert compared to others. You can also use the free Who Should I Draft tool to run your own draft comparisons, up to four players at once:
Brandon Nimmo or Randy Arozarena
Edwin Diaz or Christian Yelich
Ian Happ or Christian Yelich
Ian Happ or Randy Arozarena
Mark Vientos or Christian Yelich
Brenton Doyle or Randy Arozarena
Bryson Stott or Christian Yelich
Freddy Peralta or Randy Arozarena
Logan Webb or Luis Robert
Seiya Suzuki or Luis Robertjr
Seiya Suzuki or Randy Arozarena
Steven Kwan or Randy Arozarena
Wyatt Langford or Christian Yelich
Andres Munoz or Randy Arozarena
Hunter Greene or Christian Yelich
Lawrence Butler or Christian Yelich
Logan Gilbert or Luis Robert
Luis Castillo or Christian Yelich
Luis Castillo or Luis Robert
Riley Greene or Christian Yelich
Riley Greene or Randy Arozarena
Triston Casas or Christian Yelich
Vinnie Pasquantino or Christian Yelich
Aaron Nola or Christian Yelich
Adolis Garcia or Randy Arozarena
Alex Bregman or Luis Robert
Austin Wells or Randy Arozarena
Brenton Doyle or Christian Yelich
Ceddanne Rafaela or Randy Arozarena
Cody Bellinger or Randy Arozarena
Cole Ragans or Luis Robert
Freddy Peralta or Randy Arozarena
Isaac Paredes or Luis Robert
James Wood or Christian Yelich
Jonathan Aranda or Randy Arozarena
Josh Naylor or Christian Yelich
Lawrence Butler or Randy Arozarena
Luis Robert or Christian Yelich
Matt Chapman or Christian Yelich
Mike Trout or Luis Robertjr
Nick Castellanos or Randy Arozarena
Oneil Cruz or Christian Yelich
Randy Arozarena or Luis Robert
Randy Arozarena or Luis Robert
Riley Greene or Christian Yelich
Riley Greene or Luis Robert
Riley Greene or Luis Robertjr
Royce Lewis or Luis Robertjr
Sonny Gray or Christian Yelich
Spencer Steer or Randy Arozarena
Taylor Ward or Luis Robertjr
Teoscar Hernandez or Luis Robertjr
Yandy Diaz or Randy Arozarena
Aj Puk or Luis Robertjr
Alec Burleson or Randy Arozarena
Alex Bregman or Christian Yelich
Anthony Santander or Christian Yelich
Anthony Santander or Christian Yelich
Anthony Santander or Luis Robertjr
Anthony Volpe or Christian Yelich
Anthony Volpe or Randy Arozarena
Brenton Doyle or Christian Yelich
Brenton Doyle or Luis Robertjr
Bryan Reynolds or Christian Yelich
Bryan Reynolds or Christian Yelich
Bryan Reynolds or Luis Robert
Bryan Reynolds or Randy Arozarena
Cal Raleigh or Randy Arozarena
Christian Yelich or Luis Robert
Christian Yelich or Luis Robertjr
Cody Bellinger or Christian Yelich
Cody Bellinger or Luis Robert
Colton Cowser or Randy Arozarena
Colton Cowser or Randy Arozarena
Devin Williams or Christian Yelich
Dylan Crews or Christian Yelich
Dylan Crews or Luis Robertjr
Edwin Diaz or Luis Robertjr
Edwin Diaz or Randy Arozarena
Ezequiel Tovar or Randy Arozarena
Ezequiel Tovar or Randy Arozarena
Ezequiel Tovar or Randy Arozarena
Freddy Peralta or Randy Arozarena
Freddy Peralta or Randy Arozarena
Ian Happ or Luis Robert
Ian Happ or Randy Arozarena
Ian Happ or Randy Arozarena
Jacob Degrom or Christian Yelich
Jake Burger or Christian Yelich
Jake Burger or Randy Arozarena
Jasson Dominguez or Christian Yelich
Jasson Dominguez or Randy Arozarena
Jasson Dominguez or Randy Arozarena
Jasson Dominguez or Randy Arozarena
Jordan Westburg or Luis Robertjr
Josh Hader or Christian Yelich
Josh Jung or Christian Yelich
Josh Naylor or Christian Yelich
Josh Naylor or Luis Robert
Juan Soto or Randy Arozarena
Junior Caminero or Luis Robert
Junior Caminero or Luis Robertjr
Jurickson Profar or Randy Arozarena
Kebryan Hayes or Christian Yelich
Kerry Carpenter or Luis Robertjr
Kerry Carpenter or Randy Arozarena
Kodai Senga or Christian Yelich
Kyle Schwarber or Luis Robertjr
Lane Thomas or Randy Arozarena
Lane Thomas or Randy Arozarena
Lawrence Butler or Luis Robertjr
Lawrence Butler or Luis Robertjr
Luis Castillo or Christian Yelich
Luis Robertjr or Randy Arozarena
Marcell Ozuna or Randy Arozarena
Marcus Semien or Christian Yelich
Mark Vientos or Christian Yelich
Mark Vientos or Luis Robert
Masyn Winn or Luis Robert
Masyn Winn or Luis Robertjr
Masyn Winn or Randy Arozarena
Matt Mclain or Luis Robertjr
Michael Busch or Luis Robert
Michael Harrisii or Christian Yelich
Michael King or Christian Yelich
Michael Toglia or Randy Arozarena
Mike Trout or Christian Yelich
Nick Castellanos or Luis Robert
Nick Castellanos or Luis Robertjr
Nolan Arenado or Randy Arozarena
Paul Goldschmidt or Randy Arozarena
Raisel Iglesias or Luis Robert
Randy Arozarena or Christian Yelich
Reynaldo Lopez or Luis Robertjr
Reynaldo Lopez or Randy Arozarena
Riley Greene or Luis Robertjr
Ryan Helsley or Randy Arozarena
Seiya Suzuki or Luis Robert
Seiya Suzuki or Luis Robert
Seiya Suzuki or Luis Robertjr
Seiya Suzuki or Randy Arozarena
Seiya Suzuki or Randy Arozarena
Shea Langeliers or Randy Arozarena
Sonny Gray or Christian Yelich
Sonny Gray or Christian Yelich
Sonny Gray or Christian Yelich
Sonny Gray or Christian Yelich
Sonny Gray or Christian Yelich
Sonny Gray or Christian Yelich
Sonny Gray or Randy Arozarena
Spencer Schwellenbach or Luis Robert
Spencer Schwellenbach or Luis Robertjr
Spencer Steer or Randy Arozarena
Steven Kwan or Randy Arozarena
Taylor Ward or Christian Yelich
Teoscar Hernandez or Christian Yelich
Teoscar Hernandez or Luis Robertjr
Teoscar Hernandez or Randy Arozarena
Tommy Edman or Luis Robertjr
Triston Casas or Christian Yelich
Triston Casas or Randy Arozarena
Tyler Stephenson or Christian Yelich
Vinnie Pasquantino or Christian Yelich
Vinnie Pasquantino or Christian Yelich
Will Smith or Christian Yelich
Willson Contreras or Luis Robert
Wyatt Langford or Randy Arozarena
Xander Bogaerts or Randy Arozarena
Xavier Edwards or Luis Robertjr
Yainer Diaz or Luis Robert
Yandy Diaz or Christian Yelich
Zac Gallen or Christian Yelich
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