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Read our best NRFI betting picks today - Major League Baseball NRFI predictions for 5/24/2025. No Runs First Inning (NRFI) betting tips, expert MLB predictions, odds, and trends.
It's a beautiful day for baseball across this great land of ours, and I couldn't resist the opportunity to bring you some more NRFI (no run first inning) bets for this Saturday's slate of action.
I have five spots circled today where I think we can wager on a scoreless first frame. I'll give you my rationale for each pick, and you can decide whether or not you want to tail at your own risk.
In this piece, I'll provide my best NRFI bets today for MLB games on Saturday, May 24, 2025. Monitor the weather and lineups for each team before placing your wagers. Odds for these bets today are from DraftKings or FanDuel Sportsbook.
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What Are MLB NRFI/YRFI Bets?
NRFI bets are picks where you determine whether or not two MLB teams will score one run in the first inning. YRFI stands for "Yes Run First Inning," while NRFI means "No Run First Inning."
These are popular bets because bettors only have to sweat out the first inning and not the entire game's outcome. The most common outcome for the first inning is an NRFI, so the odds usually reflect that, with NRFI bets carrying shorter odds than YRFIs.
Even the best offenses in baseball are still only scoring a run in roughly 50% of their first innings. Every day, I'll weigh the Vegas odds against what I calculate to be the expected probability of an NRFI/YRFI in each MLB game and provide my top NRFI picks and/or YRFI picks for your consideration.
Best First Inning Bets Today (May 24, 2025)
- Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins (2:10 pm)
- Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis Cardinals (2:10 pm)
- Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds (4:10 pm)
- San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves (4:10 pm)
- Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers (7:15 pm)
Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins NRFI (-120 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers (NRFI record)
- KCR: Michael Wacha (10-0)
- MIN: Zebby Matthews (1-0)
We start with a matchup between a grizzled veteran, Wacha, and a fireballing rookie, Matthews, this afternoon. Wacha is quietly having a very good season so far.
He's no longer the strikeout pitcher he once was, but he has been able to induce a lot of soft contact this season and keep the ball in the park, leading to a very solid 2.86 ERA. Wacha's perfect record in the first inning is no fluke either, as he has a pristine 0.90 WHIP in the first frame.
Matthews is the pitcher we probably worry more about here, only because he can run wild and walk some hitters. However, he also has a superb fastball that can flirt with 100 mph, and he struck out the side against the Brewers in his first start of the season.
The Royals' lineup lacks much punch other than Bobby Witt Jr., with just one first-inning home run all season. I love our chances at a clean first inning here with good matchups for both pitchers, Wacha's track record, and Matthews' electric fastball.
Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis Cardinals NRFI (-128 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers (NRFI record)
- ARI: Merrill Kelly (5-5)
- STL: Matthew Liberatore (8-1)
I wrote about Liberatore's breakout season earlier this week here. He has been fantastic this season, and that trend extends across the first inning, where he has allowed a run just once across his first nine starts.
Matthew Liberatore, Wicked 87mph Slider. 🤢 pic.twitter.com/ShedG61YxN
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 12, 2025
Merrill Kelly has not had the same kind of success this season, however, I think he's trending in the right direction. He's really only had one bad start all season when he allowed nine earned runs to the Yankees back in early April.
He has not allowed more than three earned runs in any other start, and he comes into this game red-hot with 19 strikeouts over his last 14 innings with just one earned run allowed.
Kelly is riding a three-game NRFI streak, and the Cardinals' 75% NRFI rate this season ranks fifth-worst in the league. Hopefully, both pitchers can keep their hot streaks going and give us another scoreless first frame here at solid odds.
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds NRFI (-108 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers (NRFI record)
- CHC: Colin Rea (6-1)
- CIN: Andrew Abbott (7-0)
It can be dangerous to target NRFIs in good hitters' parks, but we have two pretty good pitchers on the mound today, and both have shown the ability to get through the first inning cleanly this season. Abbott has been perfect this season, while Rea has only one blemish on his record and is riding a three-game NRFI streak.
Andrew Abbott has been quietly elite this year:
35 IP
1.80 ERA
1.11 WHIP
43 KHe has allowed one or no runs in 6 of his 7 starts. pic.twitter.com/rdk2Odp8qd
— Just Baseball (@JustBB_Media) May 18, 2025
The Cubs' offense is a goliath, but they have been rather poor in the first inning this season with just a 75% NRFI rate. I like Abbott's chances of taming them early, especially as a lefty, since he will put Kyle Tucker and Pete Crow-Armstrong on the wrong side of their splits.
Rea is a soft-tosser who relies on soft contact and not strikeouts, but that might bode well for us as he's less likely to give up the long ball, too (he's surrendered just one first-inning home run this season).
San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves NRFI (-111 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers (NRFI record)
- SDP: Michael King (9-1)
- ATL: Grant Holmes (7-2)
We have two more pitchers here who have been very effective early in their starts. Their first-inning records are impressive, but the underlying numbers there are quite good, too. King has allowed just a .125 average to opponents while compiling at 1.00 WHIP in the first inning, while Holmes has limited opponents to a .138 average and sports a 0.89 WHIP.
I need to see those numbers to feel confident in these arms, as both have their work cut out for them against pretty good hitters in the first frame. With the return of Ronald Acuna Jr. to the lineup for Atlanta, they get a lot more dangerous, while San Diego features both Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado in their top three.
The good hitters on both sides are why we are getting such great odds. I'm backing the pitchers and their positive trends in this one. We just need one clean inning!
Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers NRFI (-128 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers (NRFI record)
- CLE: Luis L. Ortiz (6-3)
- DET: Casey Mize (6-1)
Casey Mize is set to return from the IL to make his first start in a few weeks. I suppose we could be cautious and fade him today, but I am throwing caution to the wind. Mize has been spectacular this season, and starting strong has been a big part of his early-season success.
On the Cleveland side, Ortiz has been very inconsistent but has been flashing the type of upside that Cleveland saw in him when they decided to acquire him from Pittsburgh. He's got a two-game NRFI streak going and has punched out 16 hitters over his last two starts. With Detroit having a lot of swing-and-miss hitters in their lineup, I like Ortiz's chances at striking out a bunch in this one, too.
If we lose on a Kerry Carpenter or Riley Greene home run, so be it, but I think it's more likely that Ortiz (and Mize) can navigate these relatively weak lineups in the first inning without incident.
Notable NRFI/YRFI MLB Trends: Last 10 Games
- Longest NRFI Streak: Orioles (10-0)
- Best YRFI hit rate: Nationals (40%)
- Most First Inning Home Runs: Braves, Angels (5)
- Best First Inning Batting Average: Nationals (.386)
- Best First Inning On Base Percentage: Nationals (.417)
Today’s slate of MLB games offers some intriguing NRFI betting opportunities, and I’ve provided my top NRFI bets today to help you make informed wagers. From solid pitching matchups to favorable first-inning trends, there’s plenty of value to be found for NRFI betting enthusiasts.
Remember, as with all betting, it’s important to monitor team lineups and weather conditions before placing your NRFI bets today. If you stick to these selections and the analysis behind them, you’ll increase your chances of a profitable day of NRFI betting. So, dive into today’s MLB action, make your picks, and enjoy the excitement of NRFI betting as you watch the first innings unfold!
Good luck, RotoBallers, and thanks for reading!
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