RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey is one of my favorite sports to watch and play from a DFS perspective and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and Fanduel for Friday, September 4th, 2020 at 4:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 9/4
- Dallas Stars (+114) vs. Colorado Avalanche (-132)
- Vancouver Canucks (+220) vs. Vegas Golden Knights (-235)
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix
| Team | Rank GA | Rank SA | Rank GF | Rank SF | Total |
| Vegas | 12 | 24 | 24 | 7 | 19.5 |
| Vancouver | 9 | 11 | 20 | 22 | 12.75 |
| Colorado | 1 | 22 | 17 | 4 | 9.5 |
| Dallas | 17 | 19 | 5 | 10 | 14.25 |
The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.
Power Play Matrix
| Matchup | PP% | Opp PK % |
| Dallas | 5 | 18 |
| Colorado | 7 | 10 |
| Vancouver | 8 | 5 |
| Vegas | 9 | 15 |
The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank. The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents to ensure we get the correct data for each slate! The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.
NHL DFS Core Four
The Core 4 picks are to help you construct your cash game lineups while also giving you plays that you can use and build around in GPPs. Stacking is critical in NHL DFS so you might want to pair these suggestions with a linemate or two, especially when building your tournament lineups.
1) DFS Center: Nathan MacKinnon ($8,500 DK/ $8,800 FD)
The safest player on this slate is Nathan MacKinnon regardless of the price tag. He has incredible numbers against the Stars as he has recorded 16 points in 11 games against them. What is interesting to note is that 4 of those points have come on the powerplay while the other 12 were at even strength. He is closing to averaging four shots per game against them and has notched a goal scored in back-to-back games. His ownership will be really high in cash games but with having such a high floor, he is almost a near lock.
Other Top Center Plays:
- Nazem Kadri ($5,200 DK/ $5,900 FD)
- Tyler Seguin ($6,100 DK/ $6,800 FD)
2) DFS Winger: Jamie Benn ($5,400 DK/ $7,600 FD)
Jamie Benn provides great value for your lineups over on DK at the wing position. While he is the third-highest priced winger on FD at $7,600, he is the seventh-highest priced winger on DK coming in at just $5,400. He has been outstanding in this series against the Avalanche as he has produced eight points so far in this series. He has been very active on the offensive end as he has scored three goals over his last four games played and also registered 13 shots during that four-game span as well. If you're needing a player that has is in great form that is also in a paced up game, Benn is a clear cut choice for your cash game lineups.
Other Top Winger Plays:
- Max Pacioretty ($7,000 DK/ $7,700 FD)
- Mikko Rantanen ($6,800 DK/ $8,000 FD)
3) DFS Defenseman: Cale Makar ($5,800 DK / $5,600 FD)
Cale Makar has really come on strong from a fantasy perspective in the back-half of this series. He has produced four straight games of double-digit DK performances while also notching seven points during that four-game stretch. Makar has seen tons of ice-time throughout this series as he is averaging over 24 minutes per game which of course is always needed from a fantasy scoring perspective. He has 11 total points in 11 games played against Dallas and carries one of the higher floors on this slate.
Other Defenseman Plays:
- Shea Theodore ($6,400 DK/ $6,500 FD)
- Miro Heiskanen ($5,300 DK/ $6,000 FD)
4) DFS Goalie: Robin Lehner/ Marc-Andre Fleury
With Vegas being the largest favorite on the slate, it is hard to pass up one of the best teams in the NHL to record a win in a Game 7 situation. While Lehner has been shaky his past several starts, we could end up seeing Fleury get the nod since both teams are on the end of a back-to-back situation. This is a situation to monitor before the puck drops later tonight as both goalies are viable in all formats.
DFS Value Plays
DFS Value Plays: Center
- Joe Pavelski ($4,800 DK/ $5,300 FD)
- Paul Stastny ($4,300 DK/ $4,200 FD)
DFS Value Plays: Wing
- Denis Gurianov ($4,500 DK/ $5,400 FD)
- Andre Burakovsky ($4,600 DK/ $5,200 FD)
DFS Value Plays: Defensemen
- Alec Martinez ($4,600 DK/ $3,900 FD)
- Samuel Girard ($ 3,400 DK/ $4,600 FD)
DFS Value Plays: Goalie
- Anton Khudobin ($7,600 DK/ $7,400 FD)
Top Team and DFS Line Stacks
This should be an exciting slate as both games are game 7 in their respective series! Dallas takes on the Avs in the early game on this slate and this sets up to be another high-scoring affair. So far, these teams are combining to score eight goals per game with five out of the six games hitting the over. Nathan MacKinnon leads the Avs with nine total points while Mikko Rantanen leads the scoring efforts with four total goals throughout the series. On the Stars side of things, Denis Gurianov leads Dallas with seven points scored while Jamie Benn has been their primary goal scorer with three goals.
Colorado carries the home-ice advantage but in a shocking surprise have gone 1-2 while being the home team. The usual suspects are all in play as the MacKinnon line looks to be one of the top line stacks on the slate. While being the home team, they are generating 43 scoring chances per 60 minutes of ice-time while also creating 13.68 high danger opportunities. The Seguin line for the Stars has been picked on a bit this series as they have had a low corsi number (42.55) and are allowing 33 scoring chances and only generating 24.9 scoring chances per 60 minutes of ice-time. The Pavelski line has picked up the slack for Seguin's line as they have produced a 61.82 corsi and are creating 35 scoring chances per 60 minutes. They are one of the better value lines to look at on this slate as this should be an exciting contest between these two teams.
The night game features Vegas and Vancouver and this one could go several ways. Vegas looked like they were easily going to win this in five but Thatcher Demko has stepped up in a big way to help keep the Canucks postseason chances alive. Vancouver has rattled off two straight wins to force a game 7 which should be one of the more entertaining games to watch this postseason. The top line for Vegas has been extremely strong when they have been the home team as they have produced a 65.85 corsi and are generating 55.61 scoring chances per 60. While they are one of the more expensive stacks on the slate, their production can't be overlooked. If you're needing a value line, Vegas's third line has been very solid as they're generating 40.6 scoring chances per 60 and creating 15 high danger chances per 60.
If you're wanting to really get different in large-field tournaments, getting a few pieces from Vancouver would most likely be the way to go due to lower ownership. They switched up their lines and it looks like they have placed Miller on the same line with Pettersson and Boser which is a great scoring line. In the regular season, they posted a 58.63 corsi and generated 30 scoring chances per 60. If there is a Canucks line that poses to be a big scoring threat to Vegas, it would be the Pettersson line or stacking the full powerplay line
Top Stacks (In order):
- COL1- Landeskog, MacKinnon, Rantanen
- VGK1- Pacioretty, Karlsson, Stone
- DAL1 - Benn, Seguin, Radulov
- VGK2- Marchessault, Stastny, Smith
Value Stacks:
- DAL2- Janmark, Pavelski, Gurianov
- COL2- Burakovsky, Kadri, Nichushkin
- VGK3- Cousins, Roy, Tuch
