NHL DFS Lineup Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, SuperDraft (3/25): Value Plays, Goalies, Stacks

Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft.

If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.

Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft for Thursday, March 25th, 2020 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!

NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 3/25

• • New York Islanders vs. Boston Bruins (-125) - 5O
  • New York Rangers (-110) vs. Philadelphia Flyers (-110) - 6U
  • New Jersey Devils vs. Washington Capitals (-171) - 6O
  • Carolina Hurricanes (-160) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets - 5.5U
  • Toronto Maple Leafs (-260) vs. Ottawa Senators - 6.5U
  • Buffalo Sabres vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (-275) - 5.5O
  • St. Louis Blues vs. Minnesota Wild (-135) - 5.5U
  • Florida Panthers (-130) vs. Chicago Blackhawks - 6.5U
  • Detroit Red Wings vs. Nashville Predators (-175) - 5.5U
  • Tampa Bay Lightning (-165) vs. Dallas Stars - 5.5U
  • Vegas Golden Knights vs. Colorado Avalanche (-150) - 5.5U

NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix

The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the total column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. If the total is low, that means he is in a good matchup from a fantasy perspective and should be considered for your goalie selection. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.

NHL DFS Power Play Matrix

The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage rank. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank (lower the rank the better they are) while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank (the higher the rank, the worse their penalty kill is).

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium NHL DFS subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Jorge by using promo code JORGEPUCKS when purchasing an NHL DFS Premium Pass. You get 10% off, and exclusive access to all of our Premium NHL cheat sheets, DFS research tools, Premium Slack Chatrooms, Stack Builder, Correlation Matrix and Lineup Optimizer!

NHL DFS Core Plays

The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).

When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds or needing cornerstones for your tournament builds.

NHL DFS Center Picks

• Auston Matthews, TOR ($9,200 DK / $8,300 FD) - Matthews will be a very popular play on this Thursday night slate, and for good reason. Matthew has scored six goals and notched five assists in just six games against the Senators this season while taking 22 shots on goal in those six games.
• Ryan Strome, NYR ($5,600 DK/ $ 5,900) - Strome has been on a little bit of a hot streak as he has recorded six points over his last four games while also taking 14 shots on goal during that stretch. Strome has been successful against the Flyers this season as he has five assists recorded in four games played while racking up 14 peripheral stats in those games.
• Yanni Gourde, TBL ($4,600 DK / $4,600 FD) - Gourde could be lower owned on this slate and with his recent form, he should be placed into your player pool. Gourde has scored a goal in four straight games and has recorded two goals against the Stars this year.

Other centers to consider: Crosby, Zibanejad, Bergeron, Point, Aho, Backstrom, Cirelli, Schenn, Karlsson, Johansen, Eriksson Ek, Stephenson, McCann, Zajac 

NHL DFS Forward Picks

• Artemi Panarin, NYR ($7,800 DK / $7,800 FD) - While there are several high-priced wingers on this slate in good spots, you could dave some salary cap space and consider Artemi Panarin. Panarin has scored two goals and four assists in just three games against the Flyers this season while scoring six total points over his last four games played.
• Dominik Kubalik, CHI ($5,300 DK / $5,300 FD) - Kubalik has been a valuable piece to this Blackhawks roster as he ranks third in points scored and goals scored while ranking second in shots on goal. Kubalik has scored a point in six straight games and has scored three goals and three assists in five games against the Panthers this year.
• Jaden Schwartz, STL ($3,800 DK / $5,400 FD) - The pricing on Schwartz still seems too low over on DK as he is just $3,800. Schwartz has registered a point in back-to-back games and has recorded 13 peripheral stats since returning to the Blues lineup.

Other wings to consider: Pastrnak, Ovechkin, Pacioretty, Marner, Kane, Guentzel, DeBrincat, Stamkos, Stone, Rust, Kaprizov, Tarasenko, Kapanen, Laine, Necas, Ducalir, Batherson, Tolvanen, Hoffman, Coleman, Stuetzle, Janmark, Smith, Strome, Simmonds

NHL DFS Defenseman Picks

• Roman Josi, NSH ($6,400 DK / $6,500 FD) - Josi returned to the Predators lineup on Tuesday night against the Red Wings and notched an assist and six shots on goal in his first game back. Josi has dominated the matchup against Detroit as he has recorded six assists in five games while taking 22 shots on goal and blocking nine shots.
• Matt Grzelcyk, BOS ($4,400 DK / $4,200 FD) -Grzelcyk has been a solid defenseman for Boston all season long when he has been in the lineup. He skates on both the top line and the top power-play unit and has recorded a point in five out of his last six games played.
• Gustav Forsling, FLA ($4,000 DK/ $3,700 FD)- Forsling provides good value a the defenseman position as he is seeing a solid amount of ice time and can rack up peripheral stats. While Forsling doesn't have the massive scoring upside, he makes for a fine cash game play since he offers a solid floor.

Other defensemen to consider: Hedman, Letang, Carlson, Theodore, Ekblad, Rielly, Ekholm, Fox, Makar, Jones, Werenski, Muzzin, Pulock, Brodin, Spurgeon, Matheson, Schultz, Trouba, Boqvist, Smith, Dunn, Suter

NHL DFS Goalie Picks

• Pekka Rinne, NSH ($8,100 DK / $7,500 FD) - Saros got the start in net for Nashville on Tuesday night and pitched a 31-save shutout so of course, it makes sense to consider Pekka Rinne should he get the nod in net for their game against Detroit. Rinne is 2-2 on the year when it comes to facing the Red Wings and he is sporting a 2.46 goals allowed average and a .916 save percentage. Rinne has notched one shutout against Detroit this season and is trending upwards as he has won his two most recent starts.
• Kevin Lankinen, CHI ($7,400 DK / $7,100 FD) - Kevin Lankinen has played well for Chicago this season and with the Panthers missing their best player in Aleksander Barkov for this Thursday night matchup, it is hard to not consider Lankinen. Lankinen is 11-7-4 on the season with a 2.83 goals allowed average and a .915 save percentage but is 1-2-1 with a 3.75 goals allowed average when it comes to his four starts against the Panthers. Barkov missed the game on Tuesday night and Chicago held Florida to just two goals in that game, so this is a great spot to target the Blackhawks goalie and hope for some low ownership.
• Kaapo Kahkonen, MIN ($7,800 DK / $8,300 FD) - The young goalie for Minnesota was roughed up in his most recent start against the Avalanche as he allowed six goals on 42 shots faced but before that rough outing, he was riding a nine-game win streak which is something we can't just simply ignore. Kahkonen will benefit a bit by being on home ice and when he is at home, he is sporting a 6-3 record with a 2.31 goals allowed average with two shutouts. The pricing on Kahkonen is good enough to be considered in all formats despite there being some risk as the Blues are getting healthier and are looking to make a run here soon as they hold onto the fourth and final spot in their division.

Other goalies to consider: DeSmith, Samsonov, Gustavsson

Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them incase he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership. Also, make sure that the goalie listed above is starting and if not, make sure to pivot!

Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks 

• TOR 1
  • Simmonds/ Matthews/ Marner (Rielly, d-men add on)
    • The Leafs have switched up their lines a bit and have moved veteran winger Wayne Simmonds to the top line so he will be skating with both Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner for the time being. While they don't have much time together at 5v5, Simmonds has spent time with these two on the top power-play unit before and he should provide more of a scoring threat than Joe Thornton was offering before. Simmonds fully correlates with both Matthews and Marner as they are together at even strength and on the top power-play unit so he could make for a cheap stacking part if spending up for Matthews and Marner.
• PIT 1 
  • Guentzel/ Crosby/ Rust (Letang, d-men add on) 
    • The top line for the Penguins had a very strong showing against the Sabres last night as they posted a 56.67 corsi for percentage in just 11 minutes of ice time against Detroit.  They also generated nine scoring chances and two high danger chances while generating a goal at full 5v5. On the season, this line is sporting a 2.65 expected goals for rate while generating 30.54 scoring chances for and 13.2 high danger chances for per 60 minutes of ice time. These three skaters are all fully correlated on the top line and top power-play line and if they have a similar night like they did Wednesday, they could be one of the higher scoring stacks on the slate.
• OTT 2 
  • Stuetzle/ Tierney/ Batherson  
    • The Sens have played Toronto tough this year and part of their success has been the play of their second line. This line featuring Drake Batherson and Tim Stuetzle has generated two goals in just 14 minutes of ice time against Toronto this season while generating five high danger chances as well. In over 65 minutes of ice tome together on the season, this line is sporting a 2.54 expected goals for rate while generating 25.69 scoring chances for and 11.93 high danger chances for per 60 minutes. The Sens could go overlooked and could be a low-owned tournament play on a large slate.

Other Stacks to consider: WSH 1, CAR PP, CHI 1/2, NYR 2, NSH 1, MIN 1, STL 1/3, TB 1

SuperDraft NHL DFS Picks

C: Crosby (1.1X), Point (1.4X), Bergeron (1.45X), Karlsson (1.75X)

W: Pastrnak (1.15X), Panarin (1.2X), Stone (1.4X), Marner (1.65X)

D: Carlson (1.2X), Jones (1.55X), Ekblad (1.7X), Rielly (1.8X)

G: Rinne (1.45X), Bobrovsky (1.5X), DeSmith (2X)

*Core 4 for SuperDraft are Bolded

Key Abbreviations:

xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time

GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time

SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time

If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!

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