NHL DFS Lineup Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, SuperDraft (2/5): Value Plays, Goalies, Stacks

Jorge Pucks delivers his top DraftKings, FanDuel, SuperDraft NHL DFS value plays and research for February 5th including DFS analysis for goalies, power plays, stacks.

Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft.

If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.

Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings, Fanduel, and SuperDraft for Friday, February 5th, 2020 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!

NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 2/05

• • Boston Bruins (-139) vs. Philadelphia Flyers - 5.5O
  • Detroit Red Wings vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (-380) - 5.50
  • Nashville Predators (-103) vs. Florida Panthers (-113) - 6U
  • Los Angeles Kings vs. Vegas Golden Knights (-240) - 5.5O
  • San Jose Sharks (-105) vs. Anaheim Ducks (-115) - 5.5U

NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix

The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.

NHL DFS Power Play Matrix

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium NHL DFS subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Jorge by using promo code JORGEPUCKS when purchasing an NHL DFS Premium Pass. You get 10% off, and exclusive access to all of our Premium NHL cheat sheets, DFS research tools, Premium Slack Chatrooms, Stack Builder, Correlation Matrix and Lineup Optimizer!The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank.

NHL DFS Core Plays

The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).

When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds.

NHL DFS Center Picks

• Patrice Bergeron, BOS ($8,300 DK / $8,200 FD) - Bergeron carries one of the highest ceilings on the slate at the center position and has been a point machine over his last four games played. Over that four-game span, Bergeron has generated nine points while also averaging three shots per game so he gives you a nice floor and a very high ceiling.
• Logan Couture, SJS ($5,700 DK / $7,300 FD) - The captain of the Sharks is moderately priced on this slate and he is a featured forward in this Sharks offense. Couture skates on both the top forward line and top powerplay line and does bring multi-point upside. While the Ducks are a tough defensive team, Couture has produced eight points over his last eight games against Anaheim so he has found some success against them in the past.
• Yanni Gourde, TBL ($3,800 DK / $4,400 FD) - The pricing is getting tighter which means you won't be able to squeeze in several higher-priced stacks. The Lightning are huge favorites against the Red Wings and they are coming off of a five-goal performance against Detroit on Wednesday night. If looking for value, you could look to roster Gourde who centers the Lightning third line.

Other centers to consider: Point, Barkov, Hertl, Cirelli, Karlsson, Johansen

NHL DFS Forward Picks

• David Pastrnak, BOS ($9,000 DK / $8,300 FD) - Pastrnak has been on fire since his return as he has recorded seven total points in just a three-game span. Pasta has taken at least five shots in every game this season and has had a multi-goal performance in back-to-back games. Pastrnak has the highest floor and highest ceiling of all wingers on this slate and is a great play in all formats.
• Ondrej Palat, TBL ($5,600 DK / $5,300 FD) - If you're wanting to get a piece of a highly expensive forward line, you should consider rostering Ondrej Palat. He skates on the top forward line and top power-play line for the Lightning and has produced a point in back-to-back games.
• Anthony Mantha, DET ($4,000 DK / $6,200 FD) - Anthony Mantha is a very skilled winger and his price point has just been too for several slates now. Mantha has scored a goal in three straight games and while the matchup against Tampa Bay is extremely tough, he could still hit value based on his shot volume and high upside style of play.

Other wings to consider: Stamkos, Marchand, Pacioretty,  Huberdeau, Kane, Forsberg, Meier, Killorn, Granlund, Smith, Coleman, Donato

NHL DFS Defenseman Picks

• Shea Theodore, VGK ($6,700 DK / $6,400 FD) - Theodore has been as solid as it gets from a DFS hockey standpoint. He has produced double-digit DK points in six out of seven games so far this season and has scored a point in five out of seven games as well. Theodore is averaging 23 minutes of ice time and is taking four shots on goal per game so the floor for Theodore is as solid as it can get.
• Ryan Ellis, NSH ($5,500 DK / $5,100 FD) - Ellis is on a small point streak as he has recorded a point in three straight games so he is starting to heat up offensively. Before his small hot streak, Ellis went five games without scoring a point which was also a perfect representation of how Nashville was struggling offensively as a whole. Ellis is averaging close to three shots per game over his last three games and is seeing 25 minutes of ice time per game so there will always be a high floor for Ellis just solely due to his ice time.
• Ryan McDonagh, TBL ($4,000 DK / $4,000 FD) - If the price point is too high for Victor Hedman, you can always save some salary and pay down for a Lightning defender like Ryan McDonagh. McDonagh doesn't have quite the ceiling that Hedman has but he is taking two shots per game and is blocking at least one shot per game while seeing 23 minutes of ice time. McDonagh's lone goal of the season came Wednesday night against Detroit so in a soft matchup, he might be able to find the back of the net again.

Other defensemen to consider: Hedman, Burns, Josi, Karlsson, Lindholm, Ferraro, Gustafsson

NHL DFS Goalie Picks

• Robin Lehner, VGK ($8,400 DK / $8,400 FD) - The Golden Knights have had about a full weeks rest and should be fresh against the Kings on Friday night. While they won't announce a starter until pregame warmups, we could anticipate that Lehner will get the nod due to their long layoff. Lehner is 2-1-1 on the season with a 2.95 goals allowed average and a .885 save percentage. The Kings are off to a solid start offensively as they are scoring 2.9 goals per game and average 28 shots per game which ranks 24th in the NHL when it comes to shots per game.
• Andrei Vasilevskiy, TBL ($8,500 DK / $8,600 FD) - The safest goalie option on this slate is Andrei Vasilevskiy. The Lightning are the biggest favorites on this slate and Vasilevskiy is coming off of a solid performance against Detroit as he stopped 15 of 16 shots in a 5-1 win. Vasilevskiy is 6-1-1 on the season with a 1.99 goals allowed average and a .927 save percentage. The Red Wings are averaging 1.9 goals scored per game and are taking 25.3 shots per game so the win and shutout upside is there for Vasilevskiy in this matchup.
• Martin Jones, SJS ($7,400 DK / $6,700 FD) - Rostering Jones is always a bit of a roller coaster so he is more of a tournament value play on this slate. Jones is 3-2 on the season with a 3.91 goals allowed average and a .871 save percentage but gets a very favorable matchup against an Anaheim team that is only scoring 1.7 games on the offensive end. The biggest worry for Jones is if he allows more than two goals in this game, he could have a tough time making up the fantasy point deficit as Anaheim is only averaging 25.5 shots per game which is 28th in the league.

Other goalies to consider: Driedger, Gibson

Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them incase he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership.

Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks

• BOS 1
  • Marchand/ Bergeron/ Pastrnak (McAvoy, D-men add on/ Draisaitl PP add on)
    • The pricing on this line just keeps going up as a whole and they will be very tough to squeeze in with other expensive stacks but they have shown why they are worth every penny. This line has already generated nine goals in just a three-game span and has a 5.48 expected goal for rate while also generating 47.6 scoring chances for and 24.99 high danger opportunities per 60 minutes of ice time. The Bruins top line saw a good amount of the Giroux top line and that Flyers line gave up three scoring chances and one high-danger opportunity throughout Wednesday's game.
• TBL 1
  • Palat/ Point/ Stamkos (Hedman, D-men add on)
    • If the Boston line is too expensive, you could save some salary and pivot to the Tampa Bay 1 line. The Lightning scored five goals on Wednesday night and look to be in another position to light the lamp several times on Friday night against Detroit. The Tampa Bay 1 line matched with the Detroit 3 line for a good chunk of the night and that Detroit line allowed three total scoring chances and two high danger opportunities throughout the game. On the season, Tampa Bay 1 has a 3.4 expected goals for per 60 rate while generating 30.88 scoring chances for and 14.17 high danger chances for per 60 minutes of ice time.
• FLA 2
  • Huberdeau/ Wennberg/ Hornqvist 
    • The Panthers top two lines look very good on the offensive end and their second line had a very strong game against Nashville on Thursday night. This line generated two goals and had six scoring chances with one high danger opportunity against the Predators and they got a very strong matchup as they matched up with the third and fourth lines of Nashville. If you opt to go with a two-man stack from this line, Hornqvist and Huberdeau have been dynamic as a pairing as they skate together on the second line and the top power-play unit as well. This two-man combo has generated 10 goals on the season and has a 3.68 expected goals for so they make a strong mini-stack duo for your tournament builds on Friday night.

Other Stacks to consider: FL 1 (FL PP), NSH 1, SJ 1, VGK 2, BOS 2, TB3, PHI 3

SuperDraft NHL DFS Picks

C: Bergeron(1.05X), Barkov (1.45X), Cirelli (1.7X), Duchene (1.9X)

W: Pastrnak (1.15X), Pacioretty(1.3X), Marchand (1.45X), Forsberg (1.6X), Huberdeau (1.75X)

D: Theodore (1.25X), Josi (1.3X), Ekblad (1.7X), Doughty (1.8X)

G: Vasilevskiy (1.25X), Lehner (1.35X), Jones (1.55X)

*Core 4 for SuperDraft are Bolded

Key Abbreviations:

xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time

GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time

SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time

If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!

NHL Player News and Updates

More DFS Lineup Picks and Analysis