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Free NFL betting picks for every Week 5 matchup. Expert analysis and predictions for NFL Week 5. Who should you bet in Week 5? Analysis for every game on the slate.
The NFL season is in full bloom! We kicked off Week 5 with a Thursday night divisional matchup in the NFC South between the Tampa Bay Bucs and the Atlanta Falcons, which was an overtime classic.
There are plenty of intriguing matchups in store this week with the Bills vs. Texans and Ravens vs. Bengals being the standouts. But as always, this slate features some really ugly games, such as the Dolphins vs. Patriots. Yuck.
Good, bad, and ugly...we'll go through every Week 5 game in this article, offering picks, predictions, and analysis on each and every one. Thanks for joining us here at RotoBaller, let's dive into the slate!
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21, Atlanta Falcons 20
We kick off Week 5 with an NFC South clash between the Tampa Bay Bucs and Atlanta Falcons that could have serious downstream ramifications within the division. It always feels like a coin flip when these two teams get together - and sure enough - they've split their last four meetings with two wins apiece.
Thursday Night Football.
Ready to put on a show 🍿 pic.twitter.com/ygQUjToo2I
— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@Buccaneers) October 3, 2024
Are the Bucs the squad we saw score impressive wins over the Lions and Eagles, or the one that lost to the lowly Broncos at home?
Baker Mayfield has looked sharp while throwing for 984 yards and eight TDs to just two picks this season, though he'll face a stingy Falcons pass defense that's allowing just 191.0 yards per game through their first four. Expect a razor-thin margin in this one and for the Bucs to narrowly edge Atlanta.
Minnesota Vikings 20, New York Jets 17
Set to take place in London, international fans could be in for a defensive battle between two units that rank inside the NFL's top five defenses. The Vikings head across the pond as 2024's biggest surprise, standing 4-0 with wins over the Niners, Texans, and Packers in their last three, thanks to the impressive play of Sam Darnold under center and the creative defensive schemes of DC Brian Flores.
This is a classic "revenge game" for Darnold against a Jets organization that drafted him third overall in the 2018 NFL Draft but shipped him to the Carolina Panthers for peanuts after three rocky seasons. The now-well-traveled Darnold seems to have found a home in Minnesota and is playing the best ball of his career in Kevin O'Connell's QB-friendly offense.
The same can't be said of Aaron Rodgers in New York, as the Jets are 21st in the NFL in points per game, even with the future Hall-of-Famer under center. Look for the Vikings to remain perfect and Darnold to exact a bit of vengeance against his former team.
New England Patriots 13, Miami Dolphins 9
Ok...this game wins the prize as Week 5's ugliest matchup, as the 1-3 Patriots host the 1-3 Dolphins. If you're a fan of any sort of offense, you might wanna avert your eyes. New England has dropped three straight since a surprising season-opening win over the Bengals, yet somehow, they seem to be in better shape than the woeful 'Fins.
Supposed offensive genius Mike McDaniel has looked asleep at the wheel without quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Miami has totaled just 15 total points in their two full games without him under center while confirming that Skylar Thompson and Tyler Huntley are not the answer.
Let's give a slight edge to a New England squad that is at home and should be able to contain whatever Miami is forced to attempt on offense.
Chicago Bears 24, Carolina Panthers 20
Chicago fans are still waiting on 2024 No. 1 overall draft pick Caleb Williams and this Bears offense to deliver on high preseason expectations. Williams and company have shown incremental weekly improvement while leaning on a solid Chicago defense that's gotten the team off to a 2-2 start.
Andy Dalton didn't quite turn back into a pumpkin last week in a loss to the Bengals, but his second start in place of Bryce Young did remind Carolina fans that their team has more issues than just the QB position. The Panthers are allowing an NFL-worst 32.3 points per game. This profiles as a potential breakout spot for Williams and the sluggish Chicago offense.
Indianapolis Colts 20, Jacksonville Jaguars 17
The law of averages says the Jaguars eventually have to win a game, and the oddsmakers agree, installing Jacksonville as a three-point home favorite. It is indeed the best opportunity they've had in 2024 to get in the win column, as the 2-2 Colts travel to Duval County with both Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor questionable to play as of this writing.
"[Anthony Richardson's] mom is 8 days older than I am, so there's no chance in the world he thinks I'm cool." 😂😂😂
- Joe Flacco with an ALL-TIME interview with @AKinkhabwala pic.twitter.com/773ilbNIDz
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) September 29, 2024
Despite the odds being stacked against them, something tells me that Joe Flacco could energize this Indy offense - at least for the short term - if he does indeed get the start for Richardson in Week 5. After Flacco entered the lineup for an injured Richardson in Week 4, Colts receivers Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs showed signs of life for the first time all year.
That reinvigorated passing attack could be enough to lift Indy past a lifeless Jacksonville squad that's allowed the NFL's second-most passing yards this season and has produced just 15.0 points per game on offense through their first four.
Buffalo Bills 28, Houston Texans 20
The previously unbeaten Bills were fed a big slice of humble pie in a 35-10 Week 4 beatdown at the hands of the Baltimore Ravens. Things don't get much easier this week as they travel to Houston to face the 3-1 Texans in what's one of the most anticipated matchups of the week.
Josh Allen and company will look to rebound from a loss that snapped their NFL-record streak of 43 consecutive regular-season games without a loss of six or more points against a Texans squad that has evolved from a 2023 Cinderella story into a legit 2024 title contender.
Houston boasts a talented offensive core that includes C.J. Stroud, Nico Collins, and former Bill Stefon Diggs. This should be an exciting game between two great quarterbacks, but we'll lean towards the more experienced Allen to go into "Superman Mode" and get the job done in this one.
Baltimore Ravens 31, Cincinnati Bengals 28
Though the Bengals were able to book their first win of the season last week against Carolina, things are no less urgent in a Week 5 AFC North clash with the Ravens. This has been a back-and-forth rivalry in recent years, with each team claiming four wins over their last eight meetings.
After a wobbly 0-2 start, Baltimore has blasted their way to two straight victories. Prized offseason acquisition Derrick Henry has been superhuman, amassing 383 total yards and four TDs across the last two weeks.
Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry were so perfect for each other.
Derrick Henry: “You’re great bro, you’re great.”
Lamar Jackson: “WE great.”
This duo is elite.
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) October 2, 2024
While Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, and company should put up a good fight, it's hard to envision a Bengals defense that's allowing 26.0 points per game slowing down a Ravens offense that's beginning to hit its stride behind Henry and Lamar Jackson.
Washington Commanders 24, Cleveland Browns 17
Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels continues to impress, and Washington continues to win. The Commanders have now reeled off three straight victories since dropping the season-opener to Tampa Bay. It's a run that's been spurred by Daniels' dual-threat brilliance, as he's proven accurate through the air and lethal on the ground.
There's no such superlatives to describe the 1-3 Browns, who come in fresh off another ugly loss. With Deshaun Watson at the helm in 2024, Cleveland ranks 29th in the NFL in passing yards and 27th in points per game.
Despite their recent hot play, Washington continues to field one of the league's most vulnerable secondaries, but there's been zero indication that Watson can take advantage of the juicy matchup.
Denver Broncos 16, Las Vegas Raiders 10
Despite a decent-enough 2-2 record, the Raiders feel like a team in turmoil. Following head coach Antonio Pierce's criticism of the team's lack of effort in a Week 3 loss to the previously winless Carolina Panthers, the Silver & Black are now reportedly shopping star receiver Davante Adams after he made a trade request.
Meanwhile, the division-rival Broncos have quietly won two in a row behind Patrick Surtain and a lockdown defense. Denver has yielded just 16 combined points across their last two as rookie quarterback Bo Nix attempts to find his footing at the pro level. Mile High remains one of the best home-field advantages in football, and the Broncos will continue to play stout defense this week.
San Francisco 49ers 35, Arizona Cardinals 13
The injury-raved Niners finally found a get-right spot against the Patriots last week and smashed New England 30-13. Getting back to full health sans Christian McCaffrey, we should continue to see the explosive version of the 49ers offense against a Cardinals defense that's allowing a whopping 26.5 points per game.
Just throw it up to Kittle why not!?
George Kittle with the touchdown with three defenders around him!
📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/GJXtwpcUC1
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) September 29, 2024
After an encouraging start to the season, Kyler Murray appears to have regressed in the last two weeks. This Arizona offense has mustered just 27 total points across the team's last two games and could be without star tight end Trey McBride again in this one. After a rocky start to 2024, look for the Niners to stay on track in Week 5 by beating an inferior team.
Seattle Seahawks 27, New York Giants 16
Despite a Monday Night loss to the Lions in Detroit, Seattle fans have to be feeling pretty good about their squad. Under first-year head coach Mike Macdonald and offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, the Seahawks are averaging just over 401 yards and 25 points per game.
The New York Giants, on the other hand, have found few silver linings in their 1-3 start to 2024. Rookie receiver Malik Nabers looks like a legit superstar, but quarterback Daniel Jones has failed to rediscover the flashes of form we saw in 2022. Lumen Field is a scary place to play, especially when you're struggling as badly as the G-Men.
Green Bay Packers 31, Los Angeles Rams 20
Jordan Love returned to the Green Bay line-up last week, and though he improved as the game wore on, he couldn't overcome a huge deficit to the Vikings. We can expect Love to look sharper this week against a Rams defense that's been one of the worst in the league through the first four games of the season.
It's easy to point at injuries to Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, and a host of offensive linemen as the reason for L.A.'s struggles, but the bigger issue is a barely-there defense that ranks 31st or worse in the NFL in total yards, rushing yards, and points allowed per game.
With Love back under center and throwing to a trending group of pass catchers that includes Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, and Tucker Kraft, the Packers have the potential to put a huge number on the scoreboard this week.
Pittsburgh Steelers 23, Dallas Cowboys 21
Sunday Night Football brings fans a matchup between two of the NFL's most storied franchises. Despite their winning traditions, both the Steelers and Cowboys have floundered in the postseason in recent years, and both are still searching for the right formula to get back on top.
A big-time throw from Justin Fields to George Pickens.
I could watch this over and over. pic.twitter.com/mxlYAb0YAP
— Daniel Valente (@StatsGuyDaniel) September 30, 2024
The Cowboys have yet to impress this season and their 2-2 record is a pretty good reflection of just how uneven Dallas has been. Mike Zimmer's defense has struggled mightily and will now be without DeMarcus Lawrence - and likely Micah Parsons - in Week 5.
Pittsburgh's vaunted defense looked very ordinary while allowing 27 points to the Colts last week in their first loss of the season. However, Justin Fields did log his best game as a Steeler and should keep that positive momentum going against a vulnerable Cowboys defense.
Kansas City Chiefs 21, New Orleans Saints 17
With Rashee Rice leaving Week 4's win over the Chargers with what appears to be a torn ACL, the Chiefs are struggling to find healthy bodies at the receiver position. Rookie Xavier Worthy will be asked to step up, and veteran superstar Travis Kelce will also need to shoulder a heavy load.
Even with their injury-depleted offense, Patrick Mahomes and his supporting cast should be able to navigate past the Saints on Monday Night Football.
After an electric 2-0 start to the season, New Orleans has crashed back down to Earth in two straight losses. After scoring a combined 91 points in their first two games of the season, Derek Carr and company have put just 36 points on the board over the last two weeks. The Chiefs and their underrated defense will find a way to win a close one at Arrowhead.
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