NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 3) - Targets and Avoids

September 27, 2020

Betting expert Seth I. Finkelstein gives you his top NFL survivor pool picks for Week 3 of the NFL season and your 2020 survivor leagues.

Week 2 saw another great day of action, but some teams will begin looking very different after devastating injuries across the league. Saquon Barkley, Nick Bosa, Courtland Sutton, are all out for the season with torn ACLs. Malik Hooker is done with a torn Achilles. Christian McCaffrey and Drew Lock will miss some time. Jimmy Garoppolo too. It's tough to fathom how anyone could replace Barkley, Bosa, and Sutton but I'm reminded of the famous football saying, 'next man up.'

My best bets against the spread went 1-2 but my survivor picks went 6-0 straight up. Nothing to brag about when favorites went 14-2 straight up (Rams and Raiders were sole outright underdogs winners.) Underdogs though went 9-7 against the spread. With Week 2 seeing nearly all the favorites win, it can only mean one thing for the coming weeks; beware, survivor doomsday is nearing.

This week we have another full slate kicking off with the Jaguars and Dolphins Thursday night.

Survivor League Week 3

Teams favored by a touchdown or more in Week 3 per The Action Network (home team in caps); COLTS -10.5 vs. Jets, PATRIOTS -6 vs. Raiders, EAGLES -6.5 vs. Bengals, BROWNS -7 vs. Washington, CHARGERS -7 vs. Panthers, CARDINALS -6.5 vs. Lions, BUCS -6 @ Broncos.

If you're reading this article on Thursday or later, these lines are from Tuesday. Check the current spreads and see how the line moved.

I'm going to be giving out my three top plays against the spread. That can be found at the bottom of the column.

Top Survivor Picks for Week 3

COLTS -10.5 vs. Jets

The Jets may be the worst team in the NFL. The offense ranks bottom five in many statistics like yards per play, rushing yards per game, and rushing yards per game. They have no playmakers. Sam Darnold looks like he's taken a step backward. The team looks lost. They'll have real trouble moving the ball Sunday against a Colts Defense that's first in the league in opponent yards per game with 208. The Colts offense is averaging 5.9 yards per play which ranks in the top half of the league.

Colts 27 - Jets 14

PATRIOTS -6 vs. Raiders

Vegas is off a huge win to open their new stadium. They gave a 110% percent going all out in a physical game against the Saints. I'm not sure if that will take a toll on a team traveling east for an early 1 p.m. game.

I loved the Steelers last week because the Broncos played in the second Monday night game and then had to travel east. The Raiders are in the same situation. Records for West Coast teams from 2003 to 2018 were 80-133 (37.6%) straight up, a 37.6% win percentage. Jon Gruden is very good at scripting plays early on, but so is Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels.

Patriots 24 - Raiders 16

Bucs -6 @ BRONCOS

This game is more about the injuries to Denver. They're without Drew Lock, Courtland Sutton, and Von Miller. Bradley Chubb has looked nonexistent in two games with only three tackles, one for a loss, and one quarterback hit. The way to beat Tom Brady is to pressure him and they won't be able to do that. Plus their offense is going to struggle to score without its top playmaker.

Bucs 28 - Broncos 16

CHARGERS -7 vs. Panthers

The Chargers gave one valiant effort against the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs. As of this writing, it's unclear if Tyrod Taylor or Justin Herbert will start. Herbert looked a lot better but this game won't be about the Chargers offense. Their defense is one of the league's best and the Panthers have no offensive firepower with the absence of Christian McCaffrey.

Chargers 24 - Panthers 13

Top Survivor Picks to Avoid 

EAGLES -6.5 vs. Bengals

Philly has played one good half of football so far. Carson Wentz is unpredictable. How could he throw an interception into double coverage in the end zone against the Rams. The Eagles Defense has good statistical numbers but when you watch them, they don't look so good. They've given up 27 and 37 points. Joe Burrow and the Bengals will come in with nothing to lose and play fearless. They've had an extra few days to prepare for this one too.

Eagles 23 - Bengals 21

BROWNS -7 vs. Washington

This game will come down to Washington's front seven against the Brown's offensive line. Cleveland has allowed two sacks while Washington has 11 sacks. Baker Mayfield is really bad under pressure and if they can't get their running game going, it's going to be a big problem for the offense. Washington isn't going to score a lot but their defense can keep them in games if they can hold the opponent to around 17-20.

Washington 17 - Browns 16

CARDINALS -5.5 vs. Lions

The Cardinals look like the highest-octane offense in football through two games while the Lions look like the same hapless team. Detroit is going to give their all in all attempts not to fall to 0-3. It's hard to believe but they've held double-digit leads in both losses this year.

Lions 31 - Cardinals 27

Best Bets for Week 3

• Patriots -6.5 vs. Raiders - Also really like Patriots first half in case Raiders come out sluggish with early 1 p.m. start.
• Titans -2.5 @ Vikings - Minnesota looks like one of the bottom-five worst teams. I know it's only two games but their offense looks dreadful. Tennessee can play defense and score points.
• Rams +2.5 @ Bills - Buffalo beat the Jets and Dolphins while the Rams beat the Cowboys and Eagles. Let's see how Buffalo plays against a team with an actual offense.

Running Totals

• Last week: 3-3
• 2020 season total: 1-2
• 2019 season total: 23-26-2

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