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Last week was one of my best weeks picking. Not only did my three teams win, but they all covered the spread. This week features much easier games, with heavy favorites. The Jets open the week hosting the Bills in the much overhyped "Rex Ryan returning to New York" game. There are four divisional games, and two Super Bowl Rematches, Pats at Giants and Vikes at Raiders.
For those of you unfamiliar with survivor pools it’s very simple; pick a team to win each week, if they win you move on to the next week. BUT you cannot use that team ever again. There is NO point spread involved.
Survivor League Strategy
I will be following the same strategy I implore every year when entering a survivor contest.
- Try to save the top teams for the end of the season. You do not want to be alive in Week 10 choosing between the Jaguars and Browns. Picking teams that you would not use later on in the season should be looked at early on. For example, last season the Jets played the Raiders in Week 1. I chose the Jets due to the fact that I knew this would be my best opportunity to use up the Jets and save other top teams like the Patriots and Seahawks later on.
- When in doubt pick the home team. Rarely will I be picking a team on the road in survivor. It is hard to win on the road, and teams tend to play better with their home crowd behind them. The one time I picked a road team last season, the 49ers lost at the Raiders and I was eliminated.
- Try to avoid divisional rivalry games also. Anything can happen with a rivalry game. Last season Washington was a 9.5-point underdog to the Cowboys in Dallas on Monday night football. Washington ended up winning, knocking many people out of their survivor pool.
- Never pick an underdog, unless you have no choice.
Before making any picks, look at each point spread. Vegas has the best minds, smarter than any of us, use them to get a glimpse at how each team is projected to fare that week.
The biggest favorites in Week 10, per sportsbook.ag (home team in CAPS), PACKERS -11.5 vs. Lions, BENGALS -11 vs. Texans, RAMS -7.5 vs. Bears, Patriots -7.5 vs. GIANTS
Top Survivor Picks for Week 10
I don't believe I need to make a case to pick the undefeated Bengals at home on Monday night against the Texans, the worst team in football.
PACKERS -11.5 vs. Lions
I know I am breaking the rule of picking a divisional game, but both of these games are outliers to the rule.
The Packers were exposed the past two weeks against the Broncos and Panthers. Maybe they aren't as good as we previously thought, but they could very well be the good bad team, as Bill Simmons once coined. The good bad team is the team that is the best of the bad teams, but beats up on inferior quality. The Packers desperately need to come back home to Lambeau Field. Aaron Rodgers has not lost a home regular season game- in which he played the whole game- since week 1 of 2012. The Packers have not lost to the Lions at home since 1991.
I think the line in this game should be higher. The Lions are one of the worst teams in football.There is no fire to this Lions team, partly because they are led by a coach who has no facial expression. The Lions already fired their general manager and president, making Caldwell a lame duck. Stafford does not look good and his best receiving threat, Calvin Johnson, does not look the same. I don't even need to look at stats to have confident in the Packers. The score this week will make you forget about the Packers miserable road trip.
BRONCOS -6.5 vs. Chiefs
The Broncos were due for a letdown performance against the Colts after dominating the Packers. They come back home to take on the Chiefs, who they are a perfect 5-0 against in the Peyton Manning era. The Broncos also have not lost at home in the regular season since week 14 of 2013. The Broncos defense, number one against the pass, will go back to being dominant after they face Alex Smith and the epically designed five yard passing plays.
I can't see the Chiefs scoring more than 10 points in this contest. Their running game is lacking without Jamaal Charles, Alex Smith is losing it, and Andy Reid is so bad at managing the clock. The Broncos will be ready to go after their first loss of the season.
The Bengals playing against the Texans is another smart pick.
Top Survivor Picks to Avoid for Week 1
EAGLES -6.5 vs. Dolphins
The Eagles had to go to overtime to beat a Matt Cassel led Cowboys team. Now, after the win, everyone gets back on the Eagles bandwagon. The Eagles haven't showed me anything special this season, they are simply mediocre. The line is too high against the Dolphins who are equally as talented.
How much worse could the Dolphins play after back-to-back awful performances against the Patriots and Dolphins. Lamar Miller had 97 receiving yards on 7 receptions for 2 touchdowns. Ryan Tannehill has also looked better, throwing for 309 yards this past week, with zero interceptions. The Eagles are average against the pass, and just gave up 299 yards passing to Matt Cassel. I think Tannehill could throw for over 400 yards in an upset bid.
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