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Andy's NFL DFS sleepers for DraftKings, FanDuel and Week 16 (2024). His value picks and lineup sleepers for building winning daily fantasy football lineups.
Week 15 of the NFL season is in the books, and now we shift our focus to Week 16 and what value plays we can find on the main slate in DFS competitions.
In this weekly piece, I will examine some undervalued sneaky targets. By selecting these players, you will have more flexibility in other positions to secure a high-end player elsewhere in your lineup. No matter what competition you are playing in DFS, finding a budget player with a safe floor and room for upside is the recipe for success. I will include the DraftKings (DK) and FanDuel (FD) prices for each player in the main slate competition.
If you have any questions on how to navigate the slate and other fantasy sports questions, feel free to follow me on X @A_Smith_FS and send me a message. In addition, be sure to use code "SMITH" to get a 10% discount on any premium package.
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Quarterback NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 16
Aaron Rodgers, LAR at NYJ | DK: $5.6K, FD: $7.3K
After enduring a disappointing season in New York, the 41-year-old has begun to rekindle some old magic. He is an intriguing value play facing the Los Angeles Rams this weekend. Over the past two games, the veteran averaged 314.0 passing yards per game and totaled four passing scores.
Aaron Rodgers connects with Davante Adams for a go-ahead 71-yard touchdown—just like old times.pic.twitter.com/qEjgTosHmP
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) December 15, 2024
Since Week 11, Rodgers has thrown at least two passing scores in all but one game and threw three scores in one. With the Rams allowing the eighth-most PPR points to opposing quarterbacks, it should put Rodgers in a great spot to continue his hot stretch.
Caleb Williams, DET at CHI | DK: $5.5K, FD: $7.2K
My other value option has more inherent risk than Rodgers but could have a higher ceiling. This weekend, Williams will face the Detroit Lions, who have been decimated by injuries on the defensive side of the ball, including Carlton Davis (jaw), Aidan Hutchinson (leg), and Alex Anzalone (forearm) among others.
The last time Williams faced this Detroit defense, he tallied 256 passing yards and three scores. He should be set up well for another strong showing, but he is a bit risky, given that he has not eclipsed 200.0 passing yards in each of his previous two starts.
Running Back NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 16
Jerome Ford, CLE at CIN | DK: $5.6K, FD: $6.6K
Due to Nick Chubb suffering a fracture in his left foot during last weekend’s loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, Jerome Ford should be expected to operate as the lead option during the remainder of the season.
In relief last weekend, Ford broke off an impressive 62-yard TD run and finished the game with 84 total yards on just seven attempts against a tough Kansas City defense.
Jerome Ford runs 62 yards for the TD!
📺: #KCvsCLE on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/SUozPWSvm1— NFL (@NFL) December 15, 2024
This weekend, he faces a much easier Cincinnati defense that has allowed the 14th-most PPR points to opposing running backs. In addition, with Dorian Thompson-Robinson now under center, the Browns may lean on Ford even more.
Travis Etienne Jr., JAC at LV | DK: $5.8K, FD: $6.3K
Etienne had one of his best showings last weekend of what has been a disappointing 2024 season. In this game, he brought in four of his five targets for 20 yards and added 65 yards on the ground. With Mac Jones under center, Etienne has seen his target share increase significantly, as he has seen at least four targets in each of his past two games.
In addition, this was his second-highest rushing total of the campaign. Facing the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday, who have allowed the 15th-most PPR points to opposing running backs, should set him up well for another solid outing, especially at his lower price.
Wide Receiver NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 16
DK Metcalf, MIN at SEA | DK: $5.5K, FD: $7.5K
Since returning from a shoulder injury in Week 11, Metcalf has ceded WR1 duties to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, as he averaged an underwhelming 54.0 yards per game during this span. This is a stark decline compared to the 81.1 he averaged during the season's first seven games.
GENO TO DK METCALF FOR THE 71-YARD TD 🚀
(via @NFL)
pic.twitter.com/TZ2NFhIxTC— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) September 22, 2024
However, during this most recent stretch, he still has seen over six targets per game, which is a promising sign. He has a great 'get-right' matchup against the Minnesota Vikings this weekend, who have allowed the most PPR points to opposing wideouts this season.
Adam Thielen, ARI at CAR | DK: $5.6K, FD: $6.2K
The veteran wideout has been a popular value play of mine over the past month, and it is Bryce Young's continued progression. Even though Thielen only tallied 51 yards last weekend (the lowest of his previous four games), he still saw a team-high of seven targets.
Since Week 12, Thielen has averaged an impressive 15.5 PPR points per game. He should be in a good position to continue this stretch, facing the Arizona Cardinals in a game that carries a high 47-point total.
Jameson Williams, DET at CHI | DK: $5.5K, FD: $6.1K
My final value play at the WR position is Jameson Williams. With the season-ending injury to David Montgomery (knee), the Lions may be forced to push the ball downfield more often.
Williams is the team’s clear deep threat, as he has seen 70.8 air yards per game and 28.9% of the total team’s air yards.
During Weeks 10 through 14, Williams caught five passes of over 20+ yards and one pass of over 40+ yards. Since Week 15, he has averaged a solid 13.0 PPR points per game. He will face a tough Chicago Bears defense this weekend, but given his price, he is worth a look, especially as an upside play.
Tight End NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 16
Sam LaPorta, DET at CHI | DK: $4.7K, FD: $6.1K
After breaking records as a rookie, LaPorta has come back down to earth as a sophomore. This season, he has averaged just 42.8 yards per game with an underwhelming 9.9 PPR points per game.
However, he has seen at least six targets in each contest over the past four games. In his past three games, LaPorta has averaged a solid 14.7 PPR points per game.
SAM LAPORTA TOUCHDOWN!!! 🤯🤯🤯
The #Lions are COOKING this #Bills defense with ease. 👏👏
Still “frauds” though right? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/mSaXg7NmtM
— NFC North News (@NFCNorthNewss) December 15, 2024
This weekend, he has an excellent opportunity to continue his trajectory facing a Chicago Bears defense that has struggled to contain opposing tight ends, allowing the 11th-most PPR points to that position.
Hunter Henry, NE at BUF | DK: $4.1K, FD: $5K
With Drake Maye under center, Hunter Henry has seen reliable volume every week. Since Week 9, he has averaged 7.0 targets per game and has seen at least eight targets in four of his previous six games.
Even though he tallied just 25 yards last weekend, his lowest since Week 10, given his stable volume, he should always be viewed as a low-end TE1 at a very affordable discount. This weekend, he faces the Buffalo Bills, who could have a sizeable lead throughout the afternoon, which could force New England to play catch-up. As a result, this could open the door for an even increased target share for Maye’s go-to target.
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