NFL DFS: First Look of Week 11 - Totals, Salaries, Slates, and more

November 12, 2024

Shaun Evans looks into the NFL DFS projections for Week 11 to pick out some spots to attack and mispriced players for your FanDuel and DraftKings DFS lineups.

The NFL Sunday main slate in Week 10 was somewhat disappointing and couldn't match the Thursday Night matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals. There were less fireworks and more pain for some players. However, we're moving onto Week 11 and going where the grass is greener. Let us dive into the data and get a headstart on the research.

This piece is intended to be a one-stop shop for readers to begin their DFS research for the week. While it always pays to wait for all the relevant information regarding weather, injuries, and even Vegas line movement during the week, it's also a good idea to get out in front of things early as there is a lot of data to consume!

We are looking at the NFL DFS main slate for FanDuel and DraftKings on Sunday, November 17. This analysis and data dump will vary from week to week and I hope it helps kick-start your research. Do yourself a favor if you haven't already and pick up an NFL RotoBaller Premium Season Pass and get all of the premium NFL DFS tools to help you have a successful season.

Week 11 Vegas Totals and Team Data

In this section, we take a look at which teams should be expected to put up the most actual points this week (which usually means fantasy points, too). With it being Week 11, we will include some data from last season as well.

You shouldn't target ONLY the teams that are expected to score the most points, but the majority of your players are going to come from these teams each week. Deciding which offenses are worthy of stacking (and, of course, how you are going to stack them) is the challenge!

Top Implied Team Totals for Week 11: Main Slate Only

1. Lions - 30
2. 49ers - 28
3. Dolphins - 25.75
4. Ravens - 25.5
5. Rams - 24

2024 Top-Scoring Offenses: Points Per Game

1. Ravens - 31.8
2. Lions - 31.6
3. Bills - 29
4. 49ers - 25.9
5. Packers - 25.6

2024 Stingiest Defenses: Points Allowed Per Game

1. Steelers - 16.2
2. Vikings - 17.4
3. Broncos - 17.7
4. Chiefs - 17.9
5. Bears - 18.6

The Detroit Lions are coming off a huge comeback win against the Houston Texans in Week 10 but their offense struggled. The Lions' offense looked to be human for the first time with multiple turnovers throughout the game. Now, they have a great matchup to get their heads right versus the Jacksonville Jaguars. Jared Goff most likely will play mistake-free football while living up to the team's high implied team total of 30 points.

Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens will have a true test on Sunday when they go up against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers are allowing the least amount of points scored on the main slate with 16.2. Jackson has been playing like the MVP of the season alongside Derrick Henry who can't be stopped. A Ravens stack ownership could be low due to how the Steelers defense has been this season and that's an opportunity to jump on in GPP contests.

The Baltimore @Ravens have scored the most points (318) through the first 10 weeks of the 2024 @NFL season. #RavensFlock

The teams tied for second are the Washington @Commanders and @BuffaloBills with 290. pic.twitter.com/iT9iciTHgr

— Robert Sobus (@robert_sobus) November 12, 2024

Week 11 DFS Matchups

Here, we want to get specific not only with some mismatches for both passing and rushing offenses, but some individual positional matchups as well. Rankings will be based on the data that we have so far for the 2024 season.

Top-5 Matchups for Passing Offenses

(Yards Passing and Yards Allowed Passing ranks in parentheses)

1. Seattle (1) vs. San Francisco (12)
2. San Francisco (2) vs. Seattle (20)
3. Baltimore (3) vs. Pittsburgh (19)
4. L.A. Rams (9) vs. New England (16)
5. Kansas City (9) vs. Buffalo (18)

We get a great divisional matchup between the top two passing yards per game teams with the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers. We saw Christian McCaffrey return last week and he was a huge part of the passing game. Ricky Pearsall has made great strides and topped out at a 17% target share. For the Seahawks, DK Metcalf is scheduled to practice Wednesday and they are hoping he returns, giving Geno Smith back his top weapon.

The Los Angeles Rams make an appearance on the top-five matchups going up against the New England Patriots. Surprisingly, the Rams struggled against the Miami Dolphins on Monday night (overall, the game started rough for both sides). While the Patriots offense isn't seen as dangerous, their defense could slow down the Rams. However, Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp are two receivers you never want to go up against.

Ricky Pearsall had a 19.1% chance of scoring on his 46-yard TD, gaining 31 yards after catch, +13 over expected.

Pearsall reached a top speed of 19.47 mph on his first career touchdown, the fastest speed through his first three games this season.#SFvsTB | #FTTB pic.twitter.com/e6w9aryW99

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) November 10, 2024

Top-5 Matchups for Rushing Offenses

1. Green Bay (3) vs. Chicago (24)
2. San Francisco (5) vs. Seattle (26)
3. Detroit (7) vs. Jacksonville (20)
4. Miami (9) vs. Las Vegas (22)
5. New Orleans (13) vs. Cleveland (14)

Green Bay leads the pack for top-five matchups when it comes to rushing yards per game as they go up against the Chicago Bears. Josh Jacobs has a solid matchup versus a defense that is allowing 133 yards rushing per game. MarShawn Lloyd does have an opportunity to return this Sunday but all eyes should be focused on Josh Jacobs. The Bears have been struggling this season on both sides of the ball and this is not an easy matchup to jump back from.

We have already covered the Detroit Lions for having the highest implied points total this week but Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery are a two-headed monster that you can't pass up on. Gibbs will be utilized more but the Lions run a solid balance between the two running backs that you can pay slightly down for Montgomery if Gibbs's price is too high. Either way, they will get Jacksonville's defense which is allowing 129.4 yards rushing per game.

2024 Top-5 DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matchups for Each Position

(Top matchup listed first, player to target in parentheses)

QB - Baltimore (Wilson), Jacksonville (Goff), Atlanta (Nix), Las Vegas (Tagovailoa), Indianapolis (Rodgers)

RB - Buffalo (Hunt), Jacksonville (Gibbs/Montgomery), New Orleans (Chubb), Las Vegas (Achane), New England (Williams)

WR -Baltimore (Pickens), Detroit (Thomas Jr.), Minnesota (Ridley), Cleveland (Tipton), L.A. Rams (Douglas)

TE - Kansas City (Kincaid), Las Vegas (Smith), Indianapolis (Conklin), Jacksonville (LaPorta), Baltimore (Freiermuth)

DEF - LV (MIA), TEN (MIN), NE (LAR), CLE (NO), MIN (TEN)

The Pittsburgh Steelers pop throughout the DvP matchups that are coming up this weekend. We have seen the improvement of the offense with Russell Wilson under center and the benefits that George Pickens receives from it. The offense may not be as flashy as the Baltimore Ravens but they are getting the job done and just as good. Stacking Wilson with Pickens and Pat Freiermuth could be a sneaky one and in a game environment where the Steelers will have to match the Ravens toe-to-toe each drive.

Russell Wilson this season

3-0
737 Pass Yards
6 Pass TD
INT
Rush TD
105.9 Pass Rating pic.twitter.com/uxollA9LVd

— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) November 10, 2024

Week 11 DFS Salary Analysis

If you play exclusively on FanDuel or DraftKings (unlike me), then you may not find this next part all that helpful. But for those of you who play on both sites, what I attempted to do here was to find which impact players were significantly cheaper on one site than the other.

And while you will probably end up playing a similar player pool on both sites, the point-per-dollar value of each player matters, especially when making some tough decisions for your cash-game build. Remember that projections are also going to vary from FanDuel to DraftKings, as DK uses full-PPR scoring as well as player performance bonuses.

To compare prices, I found the percentage of the salary cap that rostering each player costs (remember that DK uses a $50K salary cap, while FanDuel uses $60K). Both sites have the same roster build with nine roster spots.

FanDuel Values (FD vs. DK)

1. Russell Wilson ($7.8K vs. $5.9K)
2. De'Von Achane ($8.7K vs. $7.2K)
3. Josh Jacobs ($7.K vs. $7.1K)
4. Calvin Ridley ($6.4K vs. $6.2K)
5. Brian Thomas Jr. ($6.6K vs. $6.1K)

DraftKings Values (DK vs. FD)

1. Ricky Pearsall ($4.9K vs. $5.8K)
2. Jameson Williams ($5.8K vs. $6.3K)
3. Cam Akers ($4.6K vs. $5.6K)
4. Zay Flowers ($6.9K vs. $7.6K)
5. Jauan Jennings ($5.3K vs. $6.2K)

Cheap Stacks (DK vs. FD)

There are plenty of cheap value plays to fit around expensive stacks. As the pricing tightens up each week, I like to look for some of the cheapest viable stacks that feature the QB and one of their receivers (could be WR1, WR2, or TE1).

1. Purdy - Pearsall ($11.5K vs. $14.2K)
2. Wilson - Pickens ($12.9K vs. $15.3K)
3. Goff - Williams ($12.1K vs. $14.6K)
4. Maye - Douglas  ($10.3K vs. $12K)
5. Levis - Ridley ($11.3K vs. $13.1K)
6. Nix - Sutton ($12.1K vs. $14.2K)

Alright, that's it for Week 11 and my data dump! I took quite a bit of time to find some stats that I hope you find helpful so that you don't have to! Good luck and make sure you continue following RotoBaller all season long for the best fantasy football, DFS, and betting advice!

LIKE ROTOBALLER?

CLICK HERE, ENTER ROTOBALLER.COM, THEN CHECK THE BOX

More Fantasy Baseball Analysis