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I have been on the fantasy basketball scene since 2013 (back when Deron Williams was actually draftable). My preferred method of play is to draft proven producers that have a chance to show upside during the season. It’s a strategy that can pay dividends further in the season, or can leave you stuck with a middling roster. That potential payoff is worth the risk, and it’s just plain fun to play that way.
Let's discuss two players who have shown what they can do in limited time, but could come back to put up even more value.
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Injuries: Zach LaVine and D'Angelo Russell Rising
Zach LaVine made his debut Saturday after a long bout of rehab off an ACL injury he sustained last season with the Wolves. There are two factors that make LaVine’s fantasy potential so intriguing this season.
First is the nature of ACL injuries in general. Once thought to be a death knell to a player’s career. For an athlete of LaVine’s caliber, who depends on his speed and vertical to be productive, an ACL tear could sap some of the bounce that made him so special. On the contrary, fellow Bulls guard Kris Dunn has remarked that LaVine is “doing windmills, between the legs [dunks].” Dunking in practice is worlds apart from scoring the basketball in an NBA game, but the LaVine’s meticulous recovery handled by the Bulls organization bodes well for his return.
The second factor is his switch from a Timberwolf to a Bull. In Minnesota, LaVine was third in the offensive pecking order behind Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns. He proceeded to shoot 15 times per game on 46/39/84 shooting splits to bring his scoring average to 19 ppg. In Chicago there is a shotmaker sized void on the team. Kris Dunn (43 FG%), Lauri Markkanen (also 43%) and Nikola Mirotic (as guaranteed as anyone to be traded this season) take the most shots, in that order. Coach Fred Hoiberg has the young Bulls playing his pace and space brand of basketball with mixed results. Adding LaVine would give Hoiberg a potential true first option who excels at all three levels of scoring.
With the Bulls in a total rebuild, the onus is on their young players to produce and show promise. They will spend the rest of the year executing Hoiberg’s system and will be given ample minutes to do so. It wouldn’t be outlandish to think LaVine will throw up 20 shots per game on a regular basis when he gets up to speed. Indeed, he's already averaging over 10 shots per game in limited playing time so far.
LaVine took 15 shots per game in Minnesota, more specifically 6.5 3’s and 8.5 2’s. Extrapolated to 20 shots, that’s 8.6 (3’s) and 11.3 (2’s) attempted per game. Assuming the free throws (2.5 FTM) and shooting splits (46/39/84) remain consistent in this scenario, those numbers come out to 24.2 ppg. That’s in line with players like Victor Oladipo and Kyrie Irving and more prolific than players like Kemba Walker and C.J. McCollum.
The Bulls appear like they will experiment playing LaVine at point guard in addition to on the wing, which means they expect LaVine to play a healthy dose of minutes in the near future. It is doubtful that he plays the 37 mpg he did in Minnesota so seeing as how the Bulls’ two other cornerstones received 34 mpg in six January contests, that should be a realistic expectation for LaVine’s floor time when he sheds his limitations. The buy-low window slams shut when his restrictions are taken off, if not already now that he's averaged 16 points in just 19 minutes a game since returning, so keep track of LaVine and his owners.
D’Angelo Russell has been involved in a unique situation in his debut season with the Brooklyn Nets. His starting backcourt mate, Jeremy Lin, went down with an ACL injury in their first game. Then D’Angelo himself has been taking time off due to a puzzling knee injury for which he had minor surgery about two months ago. In that time the Nets have experimented with Caris LeVert handling point guard duties and, more recently, have seen Spencer Dinwiddie come into his own as a legitimate starting guard. With each month that passes Dinwiddie’s minutes have been on the rise, bringing into question his role when Russell comes back and how Russell’s role will change within the offense.
Russell’s shooting has strangely deviated from his career averages this season. He has been throwing up a career high in shots per game with a career high in FG%, but also averaging a career low in minutes. Not only that, but his three point and free throw shooting has clocked in at career lows.
With the Nets, D’Angelo is shooting a career best in the restricted area and from the mid-range. Half of his shot attempts come from those areas this season, which helps explain why his FG% has skyrocketed this season. He’s assisted on only 10% of his 2-point field goals. For comparison, DeMar DeRozan is being assisted on 22% of his 2-point field goals this season, more than double that of D’Angelo. This means D’Angelo is having to create many of his own shots as the primary point guard (where he has played 95% of his minutes). Increased efficiency paired with a significant decrease in shots assisted is a peculiar trend. This might mean D’Angelo has improved his shot making inside the arc and has turned into an advanced isolation scorer. A counterargument to this conclusion would be his 3-point shot, which obeys the rule of lower shots assisted leading to lower efficiency, hence his career low 3-point percentage this season. This might be that D’Lo has turned into a very good midrange shot creator, but is not a skillful pullup shooter from the arc yet.
D’Lo seems more comfortable running the offense for the Nets than he did for the Lakers. This season he uses a heavy diet of high pick and rolls to get to his preferred spot on the floor: the elbows/above the paint area. From there he executes one of three actions:
Find the roll man/shooter for an assist.
Stop and pop a jumper if the defense is sagging off.
Drive past the tight defense and use his length to finish at the rim.
Very rarely does D’Lo make a play off the ball; it is possible this has to do with the lack of quality point guards on the Nets roster since Lin went down. In his 25 minutes on the floor this season, Lin logged 100% of them at point guard, leaving D’Lo to occupy the 2 guard spot when he shared the floor with Lin. Sharing floortime with a quality slashing guard like Lin opens up the D’Lo to play offball. Without Lin, however, Kenny Atkinson may have decided that having D’Angelo as the fulltime ball handler would be the best way to maximize the Nets offense. D’Angelo has been thrust into the role of primary creator, standing among the league leaders in usage% and pace which is a drool-worthy combination for fantasy production.
Keep an eye on Dinwiddie and his growing role in the Nets offense. He has had plenty of time to audition as the starting point guard while D’Lo is out. If the Nets management trust Dinwiddie to run the offense with Russell on the floor, there is reason for optimism that Russell’s 3-point percentage will regress positively since he would not have to create his own looks from that range. It seems as though he is a very capable midrange pullup shooter, but is not at that level yet from beyond the arc.
If Russell returns and goes back to his role as the exclusive onball player, his production should remain consistent with his pre-injury numbers. If the Nets think putting the ball in Dinwiddie’s hands would help maximize their offense, then Russell’s scoring and percentages could go up while his assists and usage could take a hit. Either way Russell is a valuable contributor to your team, the only question is which D’Angelo will come to play.
Numbers and research comes from Basketball Reference (basketball-reference.com)
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