RADIO
With Opening Day done, baseball is still in full swing on Monkey Knife Fight. There’s an eight-game schedule on Friday and this is a good opportunity to cover point categories that can be used in some MKF baseball props.
There are standard overs and unders for one or two categories, but there are also overs and unders based on MKF Points.
Scoring for MKF Points is as follows: One point for each total base (single = 1 point, double = 2 points etc.), one point for each run scored and run batted in, one point for each walk, hit-by-pitch and stolen base. For pitchers one point for each out recorded, one point for each strikeout and minus-3 points for each earned run allowed.
This scoring makes for a more compelling game, an opportunity to value a more complete representation of a player’s contribution.
Keep this in mind over the course of a long baseball season. Here are some angles to consider for Friday’s action.
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DETROIT-TORONTO
OVERS/UNDERS
Matt Shoemaker UNDER 5.5 STRIKEOUTS – Even with an improving strikeout rate, the veteran right-hander, who had a 4.94 ERA last season, also runs the risk of not lasting long enough to record at least six strikeouts against the Tigers.
Nick Castellanos OVER 1.5 TOTAL BASES – In 80 road games last season, Castellanos averaged nearly 1.7 total bases per game. Pair that with a match-up against Shoemaker and the odds are certainly in his favor.
HOUSTON-TAMPA BAY
OVER/UNDERS
Alex Bregman OVER 0.5 RUNS + RBI – After an oh-fer in the first game at Tampa Bay, the Astros’ rising star at the hot corner should bounce back in the second game of the season. Charlie Morton is a quality starting pitcher, but not to the point that we should expect Bregman to get shut out again.
COLORADO-MIAMI
OVER/UNDERS
German Marquez OVER 6.5 STRIKEOUTS – After last season’s brilliant finish, when he averaged 9.2 strikeouts per game over his last dozen starts, Marquez is an intriguing pitcher to watch this season and he gets his first start against a Marlins lineup that can swing and miss.
ST. LOUIS MILWAUKEE
OVER/UNDERS
Christian Yelich OVER 0.5 RUNS + RBI – It seemed like a Monkey Knife Fight gift on Opening Day and Yelich bashed a three-run homer. Why not try it again?
Paul Goldschmidt OVER 1.5 TOTAL BASES – Held hitless in his Cardinals debut, the star first baseman is one of the most dangerous hitters in the game. Let’s see if he gets loose against Brewers starter Freddy Peralta.
L.A. ANGELS-OAKLAND
RAPID FIRE
Mike Trout +0.5 Runs + RBI vs. Khris Davis – Even with Trout dealing with a shin injury, and going against a power hitter lIke Davis, it’s still advisable to take the best player in baseball when he is listed as the underdog.
ARIZONA-L.A. DODGERS
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RAPID FIRE
Robbie Ray -0.5 MKF Points vs. Ross Stripling – Ray’s strikeout numbers might give him a slight edge here, though he does get to face a more challenging Dodgers lineup.
Justin Turner -0.5 MKF Points vs. A.J. Pollock – These are two quality players, but Turner is hitting a couple of spots higher in the lineup, or at least he did in Game One.
David Peralta +0.5 MKF Points vs. Kike Hernandez – After Hernandez mashed two home runs in the opener, this is a prime regression opportunity, at least enough for Peralta to have a more productive game.
Corey Seager +0.5 MKF Points vs. Cody Bellinger – A pair of productive hitters who both homered in the first game against the Diamondbacks, but Seager hits higher in the order and gets the benefit of an extra half MKF point.
Jake Lamb -0.5 MKF Points vs. Chris Taylor – Something of a sleeper candidate coming into this season, Lamb has 30-homer power, and that’s enough to take him over Taylor, whose playing time is a bit more variable.
SAN FRANCISCO-SAN DIEGO
OVER/UNDERS
Manny Machado OVER 1.5 TOTAL BASES – For as much as some might complain about Machado’s lack of hustle, he averaged better than two total bases per game last season. Facing Derek Holland and the Giants is not reason enough to believe that Machado would under-perform that average.
BOSTON-SEATTLE
RAPID FIRE
Mookie Betts +0.5 Runs + RBI vs. Edwin Encarnacion – There is certainly an unknown element when it comes to Mariners starting pitcher Yusei Kikuchi, making his first Major League start, but it’s not enough to prefer Encarnacion (vs. Nathan Eovaldi) over Mookie Betts, one of the most productive players in baseball.
