RADIO
It’s that time of year -- these are the busiest draft days of the year. Some of you have been preparing for this since the end of last season. And for others, you are trying to cram like you're still in college and have an exam tomorrow.
Well luckily for everyone, there’s plenty of content out there to help you get prepped. I wrote about how to attack each position (QB, RB, WR, TE) and about my favorite draft targets. The last prep you need is knowing what to do in the last rounds of your draft.
Finding a starter in the later rounds, particularly one with a weekly upside late, is such a huge advantage. Let's get to it RotoBallers!
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Targeting High-Upside Fliers in the Later Rounds
And for me, the entire approach is upside late.
Think about it, most of the players you draft in the double-digit rounds you end up throwing back on the waiver wire. And those “safe” picks like Jakobi Meyers only hold you back. You hold them all year in case you need to start them due to injury or bye weeks. But if you have started them and your lineup is already worse than it was and by holding them you are providing yourself fewer waiver wire shots, which means fewer shots at a player breaking out.
Every player listed here has an ADP in the double-digit rounds with many purely being late-round fliers. Not all will hit many will not. But these are the players in the later round that have the potential to change the landscape of your team if they do hit.
Late-Round Quarterbacks for Fantasy Football
Sam Howell may be my favorite deep-sleeper QB this season. In his lone start last season, he ran for 35 yards and a touchdown. In his final year at UNC, he ran for 828 yards and 11 touchdowns. He also has the privilege of throwing to Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson, in an offense run by Eric Bienemy.
It's possible things do not work out and he is eventually benched for Jacoby Brissett, but he will be a value for however long he starts due to his rushing ability. If this offense can elevate him as a passer a legit breakout season is in the cards.
Jordan Love is an unknown commodity in Green Bay. But there is always an upside in the unknown. Love has played well in the preseason and comes with solid weapons around him particularly the explosive Christian Watson and Aaron Jones.
He has never been much of a runner, but he is a good athlete so he could surprise there. Love largely gets drafted as a QB3, but his being a solid QB2 is certainly in the range of outcomes.
Desmond Ridder received four starts last year and did not do a whole lot with them. However, he is very fast for a QB and could surprise us by running more than anticipated. In college, he ran for over 500 yards in three of four seasons and in total ran for 28 touchdowns.
Plus, he runs an offense that has Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Bijan Robinson. He doesn’t have to be great and those players could still elevate him into QB2 territory. He is a nice QB3 for those in superflex or 2 QB formats.
Plus, the Falcons threw the ball more with Desmond Ridder last year. It was 30.3 attempts per game with him compared to 24.5 with Mariota
Plus, Mariota was objectively terrible last year. Especially when throwing to Pitts. Dove deep into it here: https://t.co/qIj8fiEeNc
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) June 28, 2023
Late-Round Running Backs for Fantasy Football
Raheem Mostert has been climbing a bit and should continue to do so after the Jeff Wilson Jr. landed on the PUP. But he has safely been going in the double-digit rounds. Mostert is explosive, which is why I was in on him when it looked like the Dolphins backfield would be split. Now as the lead back he checks in as a weekly RB2 or flex option with upside.
🚨Jeff Wilson to the IR 🚨
Raheem Mostert is a strong flex option to open up the season. Devon Achane gets a bump here too. He’s super explosive, but I want to see him get used before throwing him in a lineup
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) August 31, 2023
Gus Edwards is going as an afterthought in the late rounds of drafts and that just seems like a mistake to me. Last season he averaged 5.0 yards per carry and saw 15 percent of his runs go for at least 10 yards - which ranked seventh best of backs with at least 50 carries.
He also averaged 3.8 yards after contact per attempt, 0.19 missed tackles forced per attempt and 14 percent of his runs reached 15-plus MPH - all of which topped J.K. Dobbins. This is a backfield that has also been heavily split in the past and Dobbins has struggled to stay on the field. Take the shot on Edwards at a massive discount.
In the later rounds of my drafts, I like to target the top handcuffs. These are the backups that if anything happened to the starter we know would see the bulk of the work and get elevated into RB2 territory.
Perhaps not all of these fall to the double-digit rounds but these are the handcuffs that fit that criteria: Zach Charbonnet, Jaylen Warren, Tyler Allgeier, Elijah Mitchell, Tank Bigsby, Tyjae Spears, Samaje Perine, Rashaad Penny/Kenneth Gainwell
Any back that has a set weekly role is likely gone by the later rounds, so I like to take a shot on these backs. I can easily toss them back to the waiver wire if need be, but if there was an injury any of those backs would become the top waiver wire priority in that week.
If you can already take a shot to have that player on your roster, it's worth doing so at a cheap cost.
Late-Round Wide Receivers for Fantasy Football
Jalin Hyatt is my most drafted WR this season partially because he goes so late and partially because I believe a breakout is coming.
The Giants last season had the fewest pass attempts, completions, and yards on deep passes. They have a receiver room filled with slot receivers and desperately need speed and explosiveness.
That is where Hyatt enters. He has already earned a role with the starting offense if the preseason is any indication. Plus, he could continue to earn more as the Giants' most explosive receiver. This is partially about his talent fitting the team's needs perfectly and partially about me trusting Brian Daboll to get the most out of his players.
Here is what I wrote about Hyatt leading into the NFL Draft:
Hyatt is a long strider who consistently wins downfield and can also win after the catch. He has a great ability to track the ball, while not slowing down. He can speed up and create some more space while tracking the deep ball. Hyatt’s 3.12 yards per route ran in 2022 leads all the receivers I am writing about in this series. His 7.5 YAC per reception is third. Showing that he can win in a multitude of ways. He had 27 catches of 15-plus yards last year and his 19.2 yards per catch were second in this bunch behind only Mims. There is a lot to like about Hyatt the athlete and the deep threat.
Puka Nacua is a fantasy football sleeper after the Rams drafted him in the fifth round of the NFL Draft. Nacua was the only FBS player last season to record at least five rushing and receiving touchdowns, showing you he can be used in several different ways.
He saw 14 percent of his targets from the slot and 28 percent on deep passes. He also picked up 57 percent of his yards after the catch. This sounds like a player that Sean McVay can have a lot of fun with.
To me, he could be used as the poor man’s Robert Woods in this offense. It also doesn’t hurt that there is not much target competition behind Cooper Kupp and Tyler Higbee. I have been targeting Nacua in a bunch of leagues as a late-round flier.
Michael Wilson was a big sleeper receiver of mine heading into the NFL Draft. It only helps that he fell to a team that greatly needs production from their receivers. He could be the number two right away as they lack another option that can line up out wide opposite of Marquise Brown.
He can also win from the slot and likely would have had a lot more hype if he hadn’t struggled to stay healthy in college. He played just 14 games in his final three college seasons. He has played all the snaps with the starters in the preseason, so there is no reason to suspect that to greatly change once the season kicks off.
Here is part of what I wrote about Wilson pre-NFL Draft:
When you watch his tape, there is a lot to like. Wilson is 6’2, 213 pounds – which is huge in this draft class. He ran a 4.58, which isn’t ideal, but it is very serviceable at his size. Wilson is a good route runner who can lineup all over the field – including in the slot and as an X receiver, which is rare in this draft class. On tape, he showed the ability to use his feet and body movement to manipulate defenders. He can quickly start and stop, and shake defenders – what I am trying to say is he can get open at all three levels. He is also physical and not afraid to throw around his size after the catch. His hands can be more consistent, but he showed the ability to win 50/50 balls.
Rashid Shaheed only caught 28 passes last year, but he turned them into 488 yards. That’s right, an average of 17.4 yards per catch and 14.4 yards per target. His efficiency jumps off the charts in most metrics.
He is far too explosive to keep off the field and should operate in three wide receiver sets for the Saints. Add in that they have a QB upgrade, particularly on deep passes, and it's easy to get excited for Shaheed in the late rounds. Especially since he is a Michael Thomas injury away from being the WR2 in this offense.
Jayden Reed is another rookie receiver I like a lot this season. While Reed likely opens up the season in the slot, he can line up all over the field as he did in college. He is a strong route runner who could become a chain mover for Love and the Packers.
The best part? He goes last of their receivers, including rounds later than Romeo Doubs. That is despite Reed being a second-round pick by the Packers, who went over 80 spots ahead of where they took Doubs a year prior.
Jayden Reed to the Packers is a great fantasy landing spot. Reed can lineup all over the field, he’s a crisp route runner who can win short/intermediate - great complimentary piece to Christian Watson
Packers likely going to run a lot, but there’s volume up for grabs behind CW
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) April 29, 2023
Rashee Rice is someone I was skeptical of heading into the NFL Draft because he is raw and more of an athlete than a finished product, but falling to the Chiefs I do not think it matters. If any team gets the most out of a freak athlete it is Kansas City.
Especially considering how thin they are at the position. Rice should play a role early on, even if it is limited, but could earn more opportunity if he plays well. It is a way to get exposure to one of the league's best offenses at a very reduced cost.
Deonte Harty is the clear third receiver for the Bills. He will operate out of the slot when the Bills are in three wide receiver sets. One concern is that he will lose slot snaps to Dalton Kincaid.
Still, Harty was one of six receivers to average 2.2-plus yards per route ran and have a 30-plus percent target share in 2021. The others were Antonio Brown, Davante Adams, Cooper Kupp, A.J. Brown, and Kadarius Toney. He is worth using an 18-plus-round pick on in a high-powered offense.
Late-Round Tight Ends for Fantasy Football
Juwan Johnson was a strong tight-end streaming candidate down the stretch last season and it's like no one cares! He still goes as a mid-TE2 in drafts this season.
That is despite having the third most touchdowns at the position last season and the fifth most in the NFL from Week 7 on. He also finished last year with the second-most yards on the Saints. His ceiling may be a low-end TE1, but he is still a value at cost.
Gerald Everett was the TE13 in overall points and 15 in fantasy PPG. Yet, he routinely gets drafted outside the top 15 tight ends. I get that the Chargers have a lot of mouths to feed, but Everett will consistently be on the field for an explosive and high-scoring offense.
He topped nine fantasy points in 10 of 12 games last year and his 12.7 yards per catch ranked second at the position. He is a strong fallback tight end option at a cheap cost.
Make sure to follow Michael on Twitter, @MichaelFFlorio.
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