ADP Champ or Chump: Michael Conforto and Mike Clevinger

March 16, 2020

Rick Lucks takes a deep look into the prospects of OF Michael Conforto (New York Mets) and SP Mike Clevinger (Cleveland Indians) in fantasy baseball redraft leagues for 2020. Do they project to provide value based on current ADP?

In the wake of the coronavirus, Major League Baseball games won't be starting on schedule. While there are obviously more important things going on right now than fantasy baseball, we baseball junkies have to do something to distract ourselves from losing one of our favorite hobbies. One way to do this is to try and figure out what a shortened MLB season means in fantasy.

While there isn't much you can do if your league has already drafted and some leagues are pushing their drafts back, there are still drafts happening right now. A player who is injured and "expected to miss Opening Day" can be tough to take on draft day, but the current situation could turn those injuries into buying opportunities.

Two players who currently represent substantial bargains in this author's opinion are Michael Conforto and Mike Clevinger. Here is a closer look at their profiles.

Michael Conforto (OF, NYM)

ADP: 104.8

Conforto had a very strong 2019 season, slashing .257/.363/.494 with 33 HR and seven steals (and caught stealing twice). He suffered a Grade 1 oblique strain (the mildest type) shortly before the coronavirus suspended spring training, and the Mets have not announced a time table for his return. Since MLB doesn't have a time table to return either, Conforto represents a massive buying opportunity outside of the top 100.

First, Conforto has outstanding plate discipline skills. He walked an impressive 13 percent of the time last season, backed by a very strong 27.3% chase rate. His 11.2 SwStr% wasn't bad for a slugger at all, keeping his K% at a workable 23%. There are no red flags here, so Conforto should be able to at least match last season's OBP in 2020.

Second, Conforto's pop is legitimate. His 20.5% HR/FB last season was backed by a strong 11.9% rate of Brls/BBE, a significant uptick from his 9.5% mark in 2018. Conforto's FB% also climbed to 40% last season, a good number to see for any slugger. He also pulled more fly balls (26.1%) than he has over his career (21.5%), making it easier to reach the cheap seats.

Conforto's batting average offers some upside as well. He really didn't pull too many ground balls in 2019 (56.5% in fact), but opposing teams still shifted him in 275 of 372 opportunities. Predictably, it didn't work: Conforto hit an impressive .322 against it last season. Baseball Savant's xStats also say that Conforto was unlucky last season, giving him an xBA of .262 and xSLG of .504 that both best his actual marks. Throw above-average foot speed into the mix (27.5 ft./sec), and Conforto could best his career .294 BABIP this year.

Roster Resource currently projects Conforto to hit sixth in the Mets batting order, but this author has no idea why. He generally hit fourth (60 games), third (31), or second (21) in 2019, so the Mets are already in the habit of assigning him an important role. Furthermore, the site has J.D. Davis's unplayable defense, Robinson Cano's reanimated corpse, and Brandon Nimmo's empty OBP hitting in front of him. There's a real possibility that all three ends up on the bench before the season is through, creating plenty of opportunity for Conforto to move up.

Opportunity cost matters, and selecting Conforto generally means passing up on a bunch of "reliable" closers and players such as Sonny Gray (101.8 ADP), Mike Moustakas (99), Ramon Laureano (99), Luis Robert (96.2), and Nick Castellanos (94.2). Conforto is a good bet to outperform all of them, making him a great pick at his current price.

Verdict: Champ (based on strong peripherals, lineup opportunity, and track record)

Mike Clevinger (SP, CLE)

ADP: 42.4

Clevinger was nothing short of outstanding in 2019, posting a 2.71 ERA and 3.09 xFIP with a 33.9 K% over 126 IP. Unfortunately, enthusiasm for him dipped in fantasy circles after he underwent surgery to repair a partially torn meniscus on February 14. The procedure typically carries a 6-8 week recovery time table, which should have Clevinger ready to rock and roll comfortably before the now-delayed season begins.

If you were thinking that Clevinger's strikeout rate was a fluke, you should take another look at his arsenal. His fastball got a significant velocity spike last season (from 93.6 mph in 2018 to 95.5 mph last year), which likely contributed to a small spin rate bump as well (2,300 RPM in 2018, 2,341 last year. The result was an outstanding pitch with a 12.7 SwStr% despite a 57.3 Zone%.

Clevinger complements his fastball with a wipeout slider that posted a 20.8 SwStr%, 34.5 Zone%, and 38.6% chase rate in 2019, giving him the elite weapon that you need to maintain a K% above 30%. He also features a passable curve (13.6 SwStr%, but 33.6 Zone% and 33.7% chase rate) and change (15.2 SwStr%, but 38.8 Zone% and 33.8% chase) that could blossom into elite offerings in their own right.

You also have to love the idea of drafting a pitcher in the AL Central. The Royals and Tigers are both total dumpster fires, while the White Sox spent a fortune to make themselves merely bad. The Twins can hit, but Cleveland has elite pieces like Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez that can give them a run for their money. Clevinger should get plenty of favorable matchups and an inflated win total as a result.

Despite all of this, fantasy owners are taking pitchers like Jack Flaherty (23 ADP), Blake Snell (39.6), and Patrick Corbin (40.2) before Clevinger. Those guys are okay, but it says here that Clevinger will outperform them all by a wide margin. He's more than worthy of being your team's SP1 this season.

Verdict: Champ (based on outstanding peripherals, elite strikeouts, and soft competition)

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