March Madness Bubble Report for Monday, March 1

March 1, 2021

Nick Federline's report on March Madness bubble teams as of 3/1/21. He analyzes recent CBB games, and predicts what is needed to secure NCAA tournament bids.

March Madness is approaching fast, and bracketologists around the nation are scrambling to perfect their predictions and project what field of teams the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee will choose on Sunday, March 14, 2021.

One of the most prominent metrics that the Selection Committee uses in determining the bracket is the NCAA's NET ranking. The NET ranking uses the strength of schedule, scoring margins, offensive, and defensive efficiencies, and locations of the games to rank the 347 Division I teams that have participated in this NCAA college basketball season. Determining what quadrant a game falls into depends on the team's opponent's NET ranking.

• Quadrant 1: Home game opponent ranking 1-30, Neutral site 1-50, Away game 1-75
• Quadrant 2: Home game 31-75, Neutral site 51-100, Away game 76-135
• Quadrant 3: Home game 76-160, Neutral site 101-200, Away game 135-240
• Quadrant 4: Home game 161-353, Neutral site 201-353, Away game 241-353

Below, we will take a look at the movement on the bubble and see what teams need to accomplish in order to further secure their bids to the Big Dance.

Oklahoma State

Coach Mike Boynton entered the 2020-2021 season with NCAA sanctions looming over his program from a bribery case involving a former assistant coach this past summer. The penalty for assistant coach Lamont Evans' was a one-year postseason ban levied by the NCAA. With 6-foot-8 freshman phenom, and the likely first overall selection in the 2022 NBA draft, Cade Cunningham in stow, the postseason ban came at an unfortunate time. Luckily, Oklahoma State's compliance team is in the middle of appealing the ban. If the NCAA does not make a ruling prior to Selection Sunday, then the Cowboys are eligible to play this year as result of a pending appeal. It is possible that the NCAA will make a ruling in the next two weeks, but fans across the nation would be robbed of a great opportunity to see a generational talent on the biggest stage.

The Cowboys boast a strong 16-6 record, buoyed by a 7-4 record in Quadrant 1 games. While Cunningham gets most of the publicity, and rightfully so as a National Player of the Year contender, junior guard Isaac Likekele from Arlington, Texas, has been an essential "glue guy," scoring nearly 10 points per game and leading the team in rebounding. Assuming the NCAA does not change the Cowboys' eligibility in the next two weeks, the Pokes are currently penciled in as a #8 seed, but with a schedule that should afford an opportunity to move up the ranks, with remaining games against Oklahoma, Baylor and West Virginia.

Status: Stock up (Projected #8 seed)

Wichita State

The 2020-2021 offseason was a tenuous one in Wichita. Coach Gregg Marshall was dismissed after allegations of abuse of players. Top assistant Isaac Brown was elevated on an interim basis to the head chair, and inherited a team that barely resembled the prior year's squad, with less than 50% of their minutes played returning. All that interim coach Brown has done is lead the Shockers to a 13-4 record, wins over Houston and Ole Miss, and pole position for the American Athletic Conference (AAC) regular season crown. With zero losses to Quadrant 3 or 4 teams, the Shockers have also been able to avoid the "damaging" losses that have sunk similar mid-majors in years past.

Wichita State has not played since February 18, due to COVID-19. As long as the team can get healthy and win its remaining two road matchups - at Temple and Tulane - they should claim the #1 seed in the AAC tournament. Comparing the Shockers against other similar bubble teams does not leave Wichita State in the field most often. By virtue of a down year in the AAC, the Shockers have only been afford four Quadrant 1 games, and they are 2-2 in those games. While an at-large bid is within the realm of possibilities, coach Brown would be better off winning from here on out through the AAC tournament to ensure a comfortable Selection Sunday.

Status: Bubble position is perilous, but currently projected AAC automatic qualifier (Projected #12 seed)

Georgia Tech

Coach Josh Pastner has been coaching the Yellowjackets in Atlanta for five seasons now. In those five seasons, he has zero NCAA Tournament appearances, but may have his most talented team yet this year.

Winners of their past four games, Georgia Tech is heating up at just the right time, but will need to play along a careful tightrope to end the season. A loss to either of Duke or Wake Forest to end the year may push the Yellowjackets back to the "wrong" side of the bubble. Currently sitting at 7th place in the conference, Georgia Tech looks like it could line itself up for a first round matchup in the ACC Tournament with Pitt or Boston College, which would then be followed by a match with Virginia. If Georgia Tech can make a mini-run in the ACC Tournament, possibly notching a few key wins over Virginia and Virginia Tech (the 2nd and 3rd projected seeds in the ACC Tournament), the team would probably have its bid secured.

Status: Stock up (Projected Last Four In/#12 seed)

Duke

The Duke Blue Devils are a five-time national champion under Coach Mike Krzyzewski, with twelve Final Four appearances in his 35 years of coaching (5 years at Army, and 30 at Duke). The last Blue Devils team to miss an NCAA Tournament was the 1994-95 team, which was led by the likes of current Pitt coach Jeff Capel, current Marquette coach Steve Wojchiechowski, and former NBA players Cherokee Parks and Trajan Langdon. That should come with an asterisk, however, as Coach K coached the first 12 games (9-3) before bowing out the rest of the season as a result of a back surgery. This year's team has likely future NBA players, alongside wily veterans like senior guard Jordan Goldwire. The loss of freshman forward Jalen Johnson, who opted out due to lingering injuries, can not be understated and was a big blow.

On February 9, Duke lost at home to Notre Dame to fall to 7-8 on the year. Prognosticators, with good reason, decided that the season was a lost cause. Since that February 9 loss, the Blue Devils are 4-1, including a win over Virginia, marking their first Quadrant 1 victory of the year. Despite this positive recent run, the Blue Devils will need a strong ACC Tournament run and some help to make this year's field. Duke can't afford bid thieves like Utah State or Colorado State to possibly win a conference and secure an additional spot for a mid-major conference.  The two Quadrant 3 losses to Pitt and Notre Dame will not look favorable to the Committee come tournament time.

Status: Stock up (Projected to miss the NCAA Tournament field)

Colorado State

The Mountain West Conference has enjoyed a resurgence in the 2020-2021 season. Four "State" teams - San Diego State, Boise State, Colorado State and Utah State - have legitimate NCAA Tournament aspirations this year. Coach Niko Medved's Rams sport a 15-4 record, have only lost to the other 3 aforementioned conference foes, and sport a #45 ranking in the NCAA's NET metrics. Sophomore guards David Roddy and Isaiah Stevens have been dynamite this year, scoring a combined 31.2 points per game, with Roddy also hauling in 9.3 rebounds per game, despite his 6-foot-5 stature. The Rams pride themselves on their strong defense, allowing only 65.5 points per game, while conversely scoring at the 86th best rate in the NCAA.

The unfortunate dilemma for the Rams is that they play in the Mountain West Conference, and that they went 3-3 against Boise State, Utah State and San Diego State. The team only played three non-conference games, one of which was an incredibly ugly 53-33 loss at Saint Mary's, a game that will leave a stench on the resume. With the three remaining opponents being Air Force, New Mexico and Nevada, the opportunity for the next quality win will be in the Mountain West Tournament. Colorado State will need some help along the bubble, and a win or two over one of the three other Mountain West teams with NCAA aspirations.

Status: Stock unchanged (Projected First Four Out)

Projected Bracket

Below is my projected full bracket. The last four teams in the field (in order) are projected to be Louisville, UConn, Arizona and Georgia Tech. The first four teams out of the field in the projection are (in order) Colorado State, Seton Hall, Utah State, and Indiana. Automatic qualifiers are indicated in all caps.

* - indicates pending NCAA appeal

Stay tuned for our weekly update on the bubble each week before Selection Sunday.

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