March Madness Bubble Report for Monday, February 22

February 22, 2021

Nick Federline's report on March Madness bubble teams as of 2/22/21. He analyzes recent CBB games, and predicts what is needed to secure NCAA tournament bids.

March Madness is approaching fast, and bracketologists around the nation are scrambling to perfect their predictions and project what field of teams the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee will choose on Sunday, March 14, 2021.

One of the most prominent metrics that the Selection Committee uses in determining the bracket is the NCAA's NET ranking. The NET ranking uses the strength of schedule, scoring margins, offensive, and defensive efficiencies, and locations of the games to rank the 347 Division I teams that have participated in this NCAA college basketball season. Determining what quadrant a game falls into depends on the team's opponent's NET ranking.

• Quadrant 1: Home game opponent ranking 1-30, Neutral site 1-50, Away game 1-75
• Quadrant 2: Home game 31-75, Neutral site 51-100, Away game 76-135
• Quadrant 3: Home game 76-160, Neutral site 101-200, Away game 135-240
• Quadrant 4: Home game 161-353, Neutral site 201-353, Away game 241-353

Below, we will take a look at the movement on the bubble and see what teams need to accomplish in order to further secure their bids to the Big Dance.

North Carolina (UNC)

On the backs of a pair of wins over Northeastern (a game which was scheduled hurriedly via Twitter), and a dominant 41-point beatdown of fellow bubble conference foe Louisville, the North Carolina Tar Heels have worked their way back into the projected field of 68. Coach Roy Williams, a 1972 graduate of the iconic Chapel Hill program, has regrouped his team to a respectable 14-7 overall record. While the 1-6 record against Quadrant 1 opponents is less than ideal, the sole Quadrant 2 loss, and perfect 7-0 record against Quadrant 3 and Quadrant 4 opponents is likely most important here as the Tar Heels have done a good job avoiding bad losses.

The final four games for the Tar Heels presents a unique challenge. UNC scheduled non-conference opponent Marquette to replace its Wednesday scheduled game against Boston College, which had been postponed due to COVID-19. Avoiding a bad loss to Marquette (NET ranking: 100), and then winning one of the final three games (vs. Florida St, @ Syracuse, and vs. Duke), may be enough to solidify the Tar Heels' position in the final bracket.

Status: Stock up (Projected #9 seed)

Loyola-Chicago

Coach Porter Moser's 2018 Ramblers team captivated the hearts of many across the nation in their improbable run as a #11-seed to the Final Four. This year's team has a more impressive resume than that record-breaking squad, and they still have the infamous Sister Jean (now 101 years old) rooting them on and praying for the team's success in her capacity as the team chaplain. Loyola needs to find a way to win close games (1-3 in games decided by 5 points or less), but overall boast a resume that should be called into a favorable position on Selection Sunday.

Senior center Cameron Krutwig, who was a freshman sidekick on the Final Four team from 2018, has built a highly successful Ramblers career, and is averaging 15.0 points per game on a highly efficient 58.5% from the floor. Krutwig displays an ability to facilitate for his teammates as well, as evidenced by his 3.0 assists per game. Come tournament time, the combination of Krutwig, and perimeter shooters Lucas Williamson and Tate Hall (a former Division II transfer) could be lethal and provide a "Giant Killer" combo.

Status: Safely in the field (Projected #6 seed)

Indiana

The Big Ten is enjoying an incredibly strong season, with depth from top-to-bottom that no other conference comes close to matching. The upside of playing in a great conference is that Indiana has had a bevy of Quadrant 1 and 2 opportunities. The bad side of that opportunity is a 2-8 record in Quadrant 1 games, as well as Quadrant 3 losses to Northwestern and Michigan State - both at home. The month of February has been unkind to the Hoosiers, as they have a 3-3 record, and needed double overtime to hold off Big Ten basement dweller Northwestern.

Coach Archie Miller's team does have three quality opportunities down the stretch - road matchups at Rutgers and Purdue, and a huge home game against division-leader Michigan. If the Hoosiers can upend the Wolverines, and pull one of the road games into a win, then that could be enough to put them on the right side of the bubble. With star sophomore forward Trayce Jackson-Davis playing at an All-Big Ten level (20.2 points per game/9.4 rebounds per game), and a pair of wins over Iowa, the team does have the talent to make a late push towards seeking out one of the final bubble spots.

Status: Stock down (Projected First Four Out)

Brigham Young (BYU)

Playing in the West Coast Conference is a difficult tight-rope that BYU and Saint Mary's have done with relative success over the past decade. While Gonzaga is far-and-away the class of the conference, BYU and Saint Mary's have created a clear second tier. To avoid bad losses in conference is paramount to their respective NCAA Tournament prospects, and BYU is 9-0 in Quadrant 3 and 4 games, while having picked up a 3-3 record against Quadrant 1 opponents. With Saint Mary's tapering off in an rebuilding year, Coach Mark Pope's Cougars present the West Coast Conference's only realistic second at-large team behind Gonzaga.

The remaining schedule presents two opportunities to slip up against Santa Clara and Saint Mary's. The Cougars will likely be double digit favorites in these games, and losses to either team would slide BYU to a more perilous position on the bubble. Assuming BYU takes care of business as they have most of the year, this team will prove to be a tough out in March. The three-point shooting parade of Alex Barcello, Brandon Averette, and Richard Harward, combined with the shot-blocking presence of 7-foot-3 Dutch native Matt Haarms will make BYU a dangerous #8 seed that can play with any team in the country and possibly upend a bracket by taking down a #1 seed in the Round of 32.

Status: Stock unchanged (Projected #8 seed)

Belmont

Every season, a team with the resume of a Belmont presents a conundrum for the committee. Regardless of opponent quality, a 24-1 record on its surface is astounding. The one loss, however, was a Quadrant 4 loss to 6-12 Samford on December 5. Having not lost a game since around Thanksgiving, and storming through Ohio Valley Conference play with relative ease, the Bruins will present a difficult question for seeding and to determine if they have a strong enough resume to make a case for an at-large bid. Coach Casey Alexander's team is led by the point guard-center duo of juniors Grayson Murphy and Nick Muszynski. Freshman guard JaCobi Wood from nearby Cleveland, Tennesse, has had a strong freshman campaign (12.2 points per game) and looks like the next great Belmont guard - undersized, but shifty and a great shooter who plays well within the system.

Without any Quadrant 1 or Quadrant 2 opponents, it is likely that Belmont will need to prevail in the Ohio Valley Conference tournament to stamp their ticket to the Big Dance. A Quadrant 2 opportunity was lost in November when Northeastern backed out of a November 28 game due to COVID-19. The final two games at Eastern Kentucky and Morehead State, present two more Quadrant 3 games that probably won't move the needle.

Status: Status unchanged (Likely will need to win conference tournament)

Projected Bracket

Below is my projected full bracket. The last four teams in the field (in order) are projected to be Saint Louis, Minnesota, Arizona, and Seton Hall. The first four teams out of the field in the projection are (in order) Louisville, Indiana, Utah State, and UConn. Automatic qualifiers are indicated in all caps.

Stay tuned for our weekly update on the bubble each week before Selection Sunday.

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