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Mark Kieffer's report on March Madness bubble teams as of 3/6/24. He analyzes recent CBB games, and predicts what is needed to secure NCAA tournament bids.
We are now into March and back with another bubble report! Most conferences are winding down their regular season while others are into their conference tournaments. Selection Sunday is a mere 11 days away and March Madness is just right around the corner!
One of the most prominent metrics that the Selection Committee uses in determining the bracket is the NCAA's NET ranking. The NET ranking uses the strength of schedule, scoring margins, offensive and defensive efficiencies, and locations of the games to rank the 347 Division I teams that have participated in this NCAA college basketball season. Determining what quadrant a game falls into depends on the team's opponent's NET ranking.
- Quadrant 1: Home game opponent ranking 1-30, Neutral site 1-50, Away game 1-75
- Quadrant 2: Home game 31-75, Neutral site 51-100, Away game 76-135
- Quadrant 3: Home game 76-160, Neutral site 101-200, Away game 135-240
- Quadrant 4: Home game 161-353, Neutral site 201-353, Away game 241-353
Below is a list of teams that most experts consider on the bubble, their resumés, and what the upcoming week looks like for those teams. I am no bracketologist, so I am going off of the consensus based on several experts out there.
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Teams That Were On The Bubble Report But Should Be In:
Nebraska, Texas, Nevada, and Gonzaga...
They are all looking better than they did a couple of weeks ago. The real notable thing that happened was that Gonzaga won at Saint Mary's and is on an eight-game winning streak that also includes a win at Kentucky. The other three haven't necessarily done anything amazing, but rather they have avoided disaster. Depending on how conference tournaments and how the end of the season go, some of these teams could find themselves back on the bubble.
Teams That Were On The Bubble Report That Are Most Likely Out:
Butler, Texas A&M, Kansas State, Ole Miss...
Butler has lost five of their last six games. Texas A&M also has lost five of their last six with the opportunity to play some good teams like Alabama, Tennessee, and South Carolina. Kansas State put themselves on the bubble with a win over BYU only to follow it up with a loss at Cincinnati, a loss at Kansas with Iowa State this week to round out their season. These are teams that would have to make serious tournament runs to have a chance to get in.
Teams On The Right Side Of the Bubble:
Colorado State, Florida Atlantic, and TCU.
These are teams that have been looking like NCAA tournament teams for most of the year.
Colorado State has lost three of their last four games. They are 33rd in NET with a 5-6 Q1 record and a 3-2 Q2 record. They are in for now but have to avoid a disaster at Air Force this week.
Florida Atlantic has a weak resume: 1-2 against Q1 and 6-3 against Q2 teams. If they did not have that double OT game against Arizona, they would be in some real trouble. They finish this week at North Texas and vs. Memphis. To breathe a little easier, they have to win both of those games. I don't know if the AAC is good enough to get potentially two teams in (South Florida is in first in their league) once it's all said and done. It might have to be an AAC tournament win or bust for the Owls.
TCU is on a downward slide losing three of their last four. Those three were at Texas Tech, vs. Baylor, and at BYU. Wins over Houston, Oklahoma, and Baylor all help. You'd like to see them win out at West Virginia and vs. UCF this week.
Rest Of The Bubble:
Villanova
Resume: 17-12 record, 4-8 vs. Q1, 6-1 vs. Q2, 2-3 vs. Q3, and 5-0 vs. Q4 teams. 26th in NET
Villanova moved up from 38th to 26th in NET. They picked up another Q1 win at Providence this past week. ESPN has them as having the last four byes. CBS has them as among the first four out. They are in about 3/4 of the brackets around the industry. Looks very much like a bubble team to me.
Weekly Outlook: at Seton Hall (Q1), vs. Creighton (Q1). Seton Hall is another bubble team. That game is going to say a lot potentially for both teams. A Creighton win at home could stamp their ticket in the dance.
Status: Last Four In. Trending Up.
Best major conference records in men's college basketball since 2014:
Virginia: 156-48 (.765)
Kansas: 148-48 (.755)
Villanova: 150-49 (.754)
Kentucky: 144-51 (.738)
Arizona: 148-56 (.725)
Duke: 145-59 (.711)— Danny Neckel (@DNeckel19) March 4, 2024
Seton Hall
Resume: 18-11 record, 5-7 vs. Q1, 3-3 vs. Q2, 2-1 vs. Q3, and 8-0 vs. Q4 teams. 68th in NET
Last week they lost at Creighton and UConn. One would expect them to lose those games. It also moved them down. That Villanova game this week is going to be interesting now. ESPN has them in as the last four in. CBS as them as the first team out. The industry has them in 80 percent of their brackets.
Weekly Outlook: vs. Villanova (Q1), vs. DePaul (Q4).
Status: Last four in on most brackets. Neutral.
Congrats Dre Day‼️ 1⃣0⃣0⃣0⃣#HALLin 🔵⚪️ pic.twitter.com/JZvuF6brly
— Seton Hall Men's Basketball (@SetonHallMBB) March 3, 2024
New Mexico
Resume: 20-8 record, 2-5 vs. Q1, 3-1 vs. Q2, 6-1 vs. Q3, and 9-1 vs. Q4 teams. 28th in NET
They have lost three of their last four including vs. Air Force and at Boise State. Both ESPN and CBS have them as the last four in. Just over 3/4 of the brackets in the industry have them in.
Weekly Outlook: vs. Fresno State (Q4), at Utah State (Q1).
Status: Last four in. Neutral.
Virginia
Resume: 21-9 record, 2-6 vs. Q1, 6-3 vs. Q2, 7-0 vs. Q3 and 6-0 vs. Q4 teams. 50th in NET
This is a polarizing team that's hard to get a consensus on. ESPN has them among the last four in. CBS doesn't even have them on the bubble. Virginia is in about 87 percent of all the brackets in the industry. So are they in, or are they a bubble team? I have watched them play and they don't look good at all. I wouldn't put them in my bracket if it were up to me.
Weekly Outlook: vs. Georgia Tech (Q3)
Status: Last four in. Trending Down
"He's been thrust into a spot where he has to do a lot." - Coach TB#GoHoos pic.twitter.com/mEvNR24qj2
— Virginia Men's Basketball (@UVAMensHoops) March 4, 2024
St. John's
Resume: 18-12 record, 5-9 vs. Q1, 4-2 vs. Q2, 3-1 vs. Q3, and 6-0 vs. Q4 teams. 38th in NET
St. John's is on a three-game winning streak including a win over Creighton this year. They have gone from off the bubble to on the bubble. ESPN has them in the first four out. CBS has them as the last team in. They likely have some work to do during the Big East tournament but this has been a good turnaround this year. About 60 percent of the brackets have them in and 40 percent do not.
Weekly Outlook: vs. Georgetown (Q4)
Status: First Four Out. Trending Up.
SIM WITH BACK-TO-BACK 3️⃣'S
9 PTS from him so far 👏 pic.twitter.com/ZuoSOz8gWj
— St. John's Men’s Basketball (@StJohnsBBall) March 6, 2024
Utah
Resume: 18-11 record, 4-7 vs. Q1, 4-3 vs. Q2, 5-1 vs. Q3, and 5-0 vs. Q4 teams. 46th in NET
Utah doesn't have much on their schedule that can strengthen their resume. They picked up two home wins against Stanford and California. They have away games at Oregon State and Oregon. The main thing they have to do is keep winning and hope another team falters to open up a spot for them. ESPN has them among the first four out. CBS has them as the last four in.
Weekly Outlook: at Oregon State (Q3), at Oregon (Q1). The Oregon game would give them another Q1 win.
Status: First four out and trending neutral
Providence
Resume: 18-11 record, 5-8 vs. Q1, 2-3 vs. Q2, 1-0 vs. Q3, and 10-0 vs. Q4 teams. 62nd in NET
ESPN has them as the first four out. Nobody else does. They are on 36 percent of the brackets in the industry. A win at UConn would be monumental but losing to Marquette and Villanova hurts.
Weekly Outlook: at UConn (Q1)
Status: Likely Out. Trending Down
Wake Forest
Resume: 18-11 record, 1-6 vs. Q1, 6-5 vs. Q2, 11-0 vs. Q3 and Q4 teams. 31st in NET
They followed up beating Duke by losing at Notre Dame, at Virginia Tech, and vs. Georgia Tech. ESPN has them as their last four in the big dance. CBS has them as the first four out. They are in about 46 percent of the brackets in the industry. I think they are too talented to be in this spot, but that is neither here nor there. A home win vs. Clemson would be a nice way to end this three-game skid.
Weekly Outlook: vs. Clemson (Q1).
Status: Likely Out. Trending Down
Final. pic.twitter.com/DvzDMR5OP0
— Wake Forest Men's Basketball (@WakeMBB) March 6, 2024
Iowa
Resume: 18-12 record, 3-8 vs. Q1, 5-3 vs. Q2, 4-1 vs. Q3, and 6-0 vs. Q4 teams. 56th in NET
Iowa picked up wins last week vs. Penn State and at Northwestern. Those are nice but doesn't change the situation Iowa is in. They will need to make a tournament run or beat Illinois to get in most likely.
Weekly Outlook: vs. Illinois (Q1).
Status: On the bubble. Trending Up.
Teams On The Wrong Side Of the Bubble:
Colorado: On a four-game winning streak but beating up Q2 and Q3 teams. Talented enough to be in but their resume isn't great because they are beating mediocre teams and losing to good ones.
Pittsburgh: They have a similar resume as Utah and Nevada. Wins at Duke and vs. Wake Forest are good. Let's see how they do in the ACC tournament.
Drake: A 3-1 record vs. Q1 teams is nice. They have the No. 2 seed in the Missouri Valley tournament this week.
Memphis: They don't have a tournament resume but ESPN has them as their next four out.
Stay tuned for our weekly update on the bubble each week before Selection Sunday.
