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Read Justin Jefferson's fantasy football outlook for Week 3 of the NFL season. Notes, updates, analysis and advice including predictions for his upcoming matchup.
Through the first two weeks of the season, Jefferson is being outscored by not only Adam Thielen, but also by K.J. Osborn. That should at least be a little concerning, right? Since after all, Jefferson was taken as the sixth or seventh wide receiver off the board this season. Well, not so fast. Despite being out-produced in terms of fantasy points, Jefferson is still 13th in the league in air yards with 227. That's good for the eighth-highest air yards share amongst all receivers (44.9%). But he's only found the end zone once compared to three times for Thielen.
The slightly concerning part for Jefferson is the fact that it looks like Osborn can be a legitimate third option in the passing game for this Vikings team. Last season, after Jefferson took over as the starter for OlaBisi Johnson in Week 3, he had a target share of 27.4% as one of two legitimate options in the passing game. So far this season, that number sits at 24.1%. While not an enormous difference, it's not insignificant, especially given the Vikings have attempted the ninth-most passes per game (41) through two games. If their defense improves and they find themselves playing with the lead, Jefferson's volume may not be what it was a season ago.
It's also certainly possible K.J. Osborn gets shotput into oblivion and it's once again Jefferson and Thielen making all the plays in the passing game. The air yards and solid target share have me optimistic, but it may be hard for Jefferson to top what he did last season as a rookie. Fantasy managers are obviously starting Jefferson every week, but we may need to temper expectations slightly in Week 3 and view him as an upside WR2/WR1 rather than an elite WR1.
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