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Joe Nicely breaks down the performance of Justin Fields through Week 9 and evaluates the fantasy football upside of Fields going forward in the 2022 NFL season.
The winds of change are blowing across the NFL at the quarterback position. With stalwart pivots such as Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger officially retired, and aging superstars like Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and Matt Ryan looking as though they should be, the next-gen QB movement is officially upon us.
While players like Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Lamar Jackson have already picked up the banner of the superstar pivots, some other young QBs are putting themselves on the map this year. Perhaps the most surprising of which is Chicago’s Justin Fields, a player who up until a month ago many felt was destined to be another bust for a Bears franchise that has been laughably bad at drafting - and developing - QBs.
As new Chicago head coach Matt Eberflus and OC Luke Getsy continue to mold this offense to fit the second-year QB’s skill set, Fields has thrived. Since Week 7, he’s logged impressive fantasy production, finishing as the overall fantasy QB1, QB5, and QB5 over Chicago’s last three…and it should be noted that two of those performances were against New England and Dallas. As we head into the back half of the regular season, is it time to start discussing Justin Fields as a possible fantasy league winner?
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Growing Pains
After being one of the most sought-after recruits in the history of college football, Fields led the Ohio State Buckeyes to consecutive playoff appearances after a stint at Georgia. Selected by the Chicago Bears with the 11th pick of the first round in the 2021 NFL draft, Bears fans hoped they finally had their quarterback.
Fields started his rookie season behind veteran Andy Dalton but did eventually appear in 12 games across his maiden campaign and go 2-8 as Chicago’s starter. He looked like an ill fit in then-HC Matt Nagy’s system - which might be an insult to the term system - and finished the year with 1,870 yards, seven TDs, and 10 INTs through the air.
Though Chicago cut Nagy loose after the 2021 season, Fields entered this year as a fantasy afterthought following a rookie season in which he averaged just a meager 10.6 fantasy points per game and finished the year as the overall QB31.
A Fresh Start
Fields entered his second NFL season with low expectations and a new offensive scheme. There’s certainly been a learning curve, as things got off to a slow start for him in 2022. He cracked 10 fantasy points in just half of Chicago’s first four and didn’t pass for over 200 yards until a mini-breakout game against Minnesota in Week 5.
His ineffectiveness through the air to start the season can likely be attributed to a combination of both Fields getting comfortable with a new offense and the new staff getting comfortable with Fields. Over the season’s first five weeks, Fields topped 175 Intended Air Yards in a game just once. That number has spiked as of late, as Fields has now gone over 200 IAY in each of Chicago’s last four.
This new willingness to allow Fields to throw the ball down the field - as well as Chicago's increasing inclination to play at a faster pace - has opened this Bears offense up in new and exciting ways. The former Buckeye has responded well to the challenge, as his completion percentage has actually increased from 51.94% over Chicago’s first four to 63.96% over their last five. The trade-deadline addition of Chase Claypool from Pittsburgh should also be a positive factor in the evolution of this passing attack and demonstrated the organization's willingness to invest in a better supporting cast for their young pivot. This is a great example of the Bears tailoring the offense to fit their QB's skill set.
Running Up That Hill
While the uptick in his passing form is certainly an exciting facet of Fields’ development, it’s his prodigious running ability that could catapult fantasy managers to the top of their leagues this season.
It’s difficult to express the scope of just how good Fields has been on the ground of late, though the fact that he broke Michael Vick’s 20-year-old NFL record for QB rushing yards in a single regular-season game when he totaled 178 on the ground against Miami last week does add some perspective.
While his Week 9 explosion against the Dolphins was undoubtedly an outlier, it wasn’t flukey. Fields leads the NFL in QB rushing attempts (91) and trails only Lamar Jackson in rushing yards (602), yards per carry (6.6), and rushing TDs (four) at the position.
League Winner
As fantasy football regulars probably know, a QB with rushing ability is something of a cheat code. That’s reflected in Fields’ current status as 2022’s overall fantasy QB7, which is impressive on its own merit, but is even more so when we consider his slow start to the season.
It should also be noted that this is a Chicago defense that's just traded away two of its cornerstone players and has given up an average of 42 points over the Bears' last two, which led to a season-high 28 pass attempts for Fields last week against Miami. With such a leaky defensive unit, we can expect this Chicago offense to continue this new up-tempo and aggressive philosophy. It also doesn't hurt that Fields draws smash matchups against two of the NFL's worst defenses in Detroit and Atlanta over the next two weeks.
Confidence can be an unbelievably-positive influence on young QBs and we can assume that Fields' cup runneth over as we head into the back half of the season. If you are fortunate enough to have him on your fantasy rosters...congratulations, big things lie ahead.
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