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As even casual baseball fans know, superstar outfielder Juan Soto is a free agent and about to command one of the most lucrative contracts in sports history. Just 26 years old and coming off his best overall season, with career production that compares favorably to the incomparable Ted Williams, the buzz around baseball has Soto aiming for $600 million over 10-plus years.
Soto is a fantasy stud, a perennial first-rounder who finished fifth overall on the FanGraphs player rater in 2024. So, let’s examine how Soto’s potential landing spots could affect his fantasy value.
Although at least eight teams have expressed interest in Soto, Bob Nightengale recently wrote that he’s hearing there are only four true contenders: the Mets, Yankees, Red Sox, and Blue Jays. We’ll throw one other mega power into the mix, just in case.
MLB rumors: Juan Soto, trade markets take shape before Thanksgiving https://t.co/MuUeaVUhaF
— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) November 25, 2024
Boston Red Sox
The Sox have been relatively quiet in free agency recently, but there are rumblings they plan to spend this offseason. They have already made a presentation to Soto, who was said to be impressed.
Fenway Park is widely known as a hitter’s haven—indeed, Statcast generally rates it as the best non-Coors park for offense—with one significant exception: left-handed power. Its right field is large and oddly shaped. For lefties, Statcast’s park factors rate Fenway at 96 (100 is average) for home runs, which ranks 16th.
Yankee Stadium, on the other hand, ranked third for lefty homers at 119 (a 19% boost over average). Given that swing, we should probably expect a drop in dingers if Soto goes to Boston, perhaps something closer to the 35 he hit in 2023 with San Diego (93 park factor) versus the career-high 41 he popped in the Bronx.
Top home run park factors for left-handed batters; source: Baseball Savant
But there’s an exciting tradeoff, too: Fenway ranks fourth for lefty singles, first for doubles, and eighth for triples—Petco Park and Yankee Stadium are below average for all those hit types, which may explain why Soto has been one of the biggest underperformers in batting average recently.
Although his actual .288 mark in 2024 was quite good, Statcast’s expected average said he deserved .317, the second-highest mark in MLB. Given Fenway’s boost for extra-base hits and his own penchant for using the whole field, one can easily envision Soto smashing 40 doubles off the Green Monster alone and getting back to a .300+ average.
As for the lineup, it’s already quite good: the Red Sox 104 team wRC+ ranked 11th in MLB. Soto could immediately slot into the No. 2 spot after Jarren Duran and in front of Rafael Devers, or perhaps in between those excellent hitters and a right-handed bat Boston signs this offseason (Teoscar Hernandez?).
Soto wouldn’t have Judge behind him, but we’d expect the runs and RBI to be plentiful here nonetheless, and a bump of 15-20 points on average nicely mitigates losing a few homers.
New York Mets
According to Nightengale, rival GMs view the Mets as the favorites to sign Soto, no surprise given Steve Cohen’s status as wealthiest owner in MLB.
Per @BNightengale, executives view the Mets as being in the driver's seat for Juan Soto https://t.co/EaZkFTot0T pic.twitter.com/buIdITjiid
— SNY Mets (@SNY_Mets) November 25, 2024
Choosing the Mets would give Soto arguably a better lineup than Boston, but it would perhaps be the worst-hitting environment out of his likely suitors.
Citi Field ranks below average for lefties in every hit type: tied for 27th overall, 21st for homers, and 27th for doubles. Such factors may not drive the decision, given he’s looking for a 10-year deal and doesn’t need to maximize his numbers for free agency, but it may not be ideal for fantasy.
Soto’s year in San Diego provides a convenient roadmap: Petco and Citi are tied in overall park factors for lefties. They’re tied for homers and almost identical for hits, with Petco better for doubles and Citi better for triples. Soto hit .275 (.930 OPS) with 35 homers and 15 steals playing for the Padres in 2023.
To be fair to Soto, he may have just reached a new level now: Statcast also has an “expected home runs by park” measure, and based on his batted ball distribution, Soto would have hit 46 homers if playing all his 2024 games at Citi Field. Either way, he’s still an easy first-round fantasy asset.
As for the lineup, the Mets offer a nice fit on paper, with Soto behind the switch-hitting Lindor and protected by right-handed breakout Mark Vientos.
The Mets had the seventh-best offense in baseball last season (109 wRC+), and Soto could push them into the top three. Even with some muting of his power and average the counting stats should be plentiful with the Metropolitans and again, a reprise of his 2023 numbers would make Soto an annual first rounder in fantasy.
Toronto Blue Jays
Although they haven’t received as much publicity in the Soto sweepstakes, the Jays are said to be seriously interested; insider Jon Heyman recently opined they may even be a front-runner.
'I'd say the Mets, followed by the Blue Jays, would be my guess today!'@JonHeyman tells @BrandonLondonTV which clubs have the early edge in the Juan Soto free agency sweepstakes
Full video ➡️ https://t.co/ZdfaWVd1KT pic.twitter.com/S39APLJZbO
— New York Post Sports (@nypostsports) November 19, 2024
Remember, Toronto was said to be one of the top bidders for Shohei Ohtani’s services last year. They are a big market team that just had an extremely disappointing season, so they decided to hold onto Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, and they have the resources to afford Soto.
Toronto’s Rogers Centre presents a less-than-ideal hitting environment for lefties, ranking 22nd overall and 19th for home runs, about 5% below average (95 park factor). This is roughly on par with the Mets’ Citi Field. However, given Soto’s batted ball distribution and Statcast’s expected HR by park in 2024, he would have hit more bombs playing in Toronto than all but one of his other suitors.
The Jays lineup ranked roughly middle of the pack in MLB last season (101 wRC+), but Soto paired with Vlad would be one of the most lethal one-two punches in baseball. Sprinkle in a return to form for Bichette, and the Jays could hit with anyone, at least at the top. Given the lineup potential and Soto’s expected power in Rogers, we may see fantasy production somewhere between his 2023 in San Diego and last year in the Bronx.
New York Yankees
If you want my unfounded opinion, I think it’ll be the Yanks that snare the big prize. The Steinbrenner kids haven’t been as aggressive as their dad famously was, but they haven’t been Scrooges either.
They are especially motivated now, too: after a long drought, New York got back to the World Series, and losing Soto to sign a Christian Walker or Pete Alonso type—good, impactful hitters but clear downgrades—would have fans and local media grabbing the pitchforks for Yankees brass and ownership.
For obvious reasons, we don’t need to speculate as to whether Soto would thrive in the Bronx. As noted above, Yankee Stadium is one of the best parks for lefty power, with 19% above average in home runs. Soto would likely challenge 40 bombs again and at least 220 runs plus RBI batting in front of Judge.
The other possibility New York offers is the potential to shift Soto to first base; we don’t know if he’s even amenable to such a move, but his work in right field is spotty at best and isn’t likely to improve as he ages (-1 Defensive Runs Saved and -5 Outs Above Average last season). With Anthony Rizzo, a free agent, the Yankees also have a need at first.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Nightingale reported that rival GMs don’t see the Dodgers as serious contenders for Soto. But right now LA’s 2025 payroll is projected roughly $50 million below its 2024 number. Let’s be clear-eyed here; it’s the Dodgers, they could entice him with a creative deal of higher total value than others and no one would be surprised.
Juan Soto's free agency tour continues with a meeting with the #Dodgers....https://t.co/Z9JeiD0Vcy pic.twitter.com/AznRW2jPCM
— MLB Trade Rumors (@mlbtraderumors) November 19, 2024
Dodger Stadium ranks just 21st overall for lefty hitters. However, for home runs, it’s nearly as good as Yankee Stadium at 16% above average.
In fact, based on Statcast’s expected homers by park, Soto would have done best playing in LA (51, five more HRs playing every game there than at Yankee Stadium or Citi Field). Dodger Stadium is below average for lefty singles and doubles, but not terribly so, with 92 and 96 ratings, respectively.
As for the lineup, adding Soto to Ohtani, Betts, and Freeman is quite obviously the most deadly potential situation for opponents.
The 2024 Dodgers had the best offense in baseball (118 wRC+). Soto himself posted the third-best individual season (180 wRC+) and scored 128 runs last year. So, in this LA lineup, would we be looking at almost 50 homers, 140-plus runs, and 100-plus RBI? It’s terrifying, and while any non-Dodgers fan will hope this doesn’t come to pass, Soto in LA boosts his fantasy value to even greater heights.
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